machine learning sports betting python

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The bookie has indicated that it could close up to outlets, with the number of closures ultimately dependent on how gamblers change their habits. William Hill is making progress in fulfilling its American ambitions. Since legislation banning sports betting was overturned in May, six states have legalised this form of gambling, and William Hill is present in all six. Sign in Register. Join our community of smart investors Subscribe. Investment Ideas. A non-cash impairment on the UK retail business wiped out full-year profits.

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Machine learning sports betting python

However, since most of the time it is not easy to tell when the bookmakers are wrong, we can try to have a machine-learning ML algorithm do this for us. For the purpose of this project we used darts statistics, including features such as averages, checkout percentages, number of s maximum score with 3 darts and head-to-head statistics.

In addition, we used historic odds in order to assess whether this model could have made a profit. First, to further motivate our tactics of only betting on a selection of games lets consider the benchmark accuracies. Clearly we are not outperforming the bookmakers, so there is little chance to make a profit.

The binary-cross entropy loss function optimizes our ability to predict the outcome of games correctly, i. However, that is not our goal. What we want is to identify the games where the bookmaker misjudges the true probability and thus offers favourable odds. Below is a loss function constructed to do exactly this. The argument is our expected return: the odds multiplied by our estimated win probability minus 1.

Given the properties of the ReLu function this means that it is only larger than 0 if we believe the odds are favourable for us. On the other hand, the more favourable the odds appear, the higher the amount the model will bet. This loss function ensures that what we are optimizing is not how well we can predict the outcome of a game, but rather our winnings.

Note that as a consequence of our custom loss function, the predicted probabilities are not representative of the true probabilities, since when the model thinks the bookmakers are off it will push the probabilities towards the extremes 0 or 1 in order to bet more.

In order to test our model performance we constructed a densely-connected neural network with two hidden layers. The final layer is a sigmoid layer that predicts the probability of player 1 winning. Using the bookmaker odds and the outcome of the game we then compute the loss with the custom loss function described above.

Since this is a time-series, the model is trained on historical data upto a given point and subsequently applied to the next 50 games. This process is then repeated for the next 50 games, etc. Results are shown in Fig.

Red dots are for a strategy where we always bet a fixed amount on the player with the highest winning probability according to the bookmaker odds. Green dots are bets placed by our machine learning model. It only places a bet when it expects to make a profit. The total earning fluctuate around 0. However, there are also a few major winnings, that overcompensate large losses.

Our model managed to a make a profit, albeit with large fluctuations over time. It suffered from a few major losses, but also made some major winnings compensating the losses. As a benchmark we took a strategy where we always bet on the player that is most likely to win according to the bookmaker which would not be very different from a model where we optimize using binary cross-entropy to predict the winner.

Reposted with permission. By subscribing you accept KDnuggets Privacy Policy. In addition to the standard in-game statistics, we can use external metrics within the model. There are many third-parties that construct their own metrics based on the same in-game statistics, qualitative rankings from experts, historical team rankings that go back decades, and even the exact players that are on the field during each game. Some of these include:. Each has its own methodology, but all have been proven successful at predicting game outcomes.

Our model should incorporate one or more of these external metrics. Our approach is to construct a dataset where each row represents a single game between two teams, and the columns are based on the aforementioned metrics. The result of each game is given by either a 0 for a home team victory or a 1 for an away team victory.

We can use logistic regression to make a prediction a probability between 0 and 1 of the away team winning or losing. Because the season is only half-way through, it is interesting to see if we can build a model using the games that have already been played to predict the games that will be played in the remainder of the regular season.

To obtain the data for the season, we first need to import the sportsreference package. The former gives the statistical information for a given game, while the latter provides the game information teams playing and who wins if the game has already been played. It is also worth noting that the nature of the NFL changes from year to year. As a result, the weights corresponding to each feature in our model can differ from season to season. For more information on how to use the sportsreference package , refer to its documented capabilities.

To see how these methods work in practice:. The first argument is the week of the NFL season week 1 , and the second is the season itself season. You should see something like this:. The first entry in the dictionary is a unique game string.

We can use the game string given by boxscore to obtain the statistics for the game:. There are 58 columns worth of statistics in the dataframe. Once a game is played, this dataframe is populated. If a game has not been played, an empty object is returned. The column names can be listed by running:. We also need to extract the schedule, so we know which teams are playing in the coming weeks. This is perhaps the easiest place to start.

We can write a function that loops over each week, and each game within each week, to extract the schedule:. This dataframe provides the basis for our final dataset, as each row corresponds to a game. The two inputs specify which weeks to loop through in a given season.

The output should look something like this:. Thus far we have written functions that allow for the extraction of the NFL schedule, along with the in-game statistics of the games that have been played. So, for example, if a game is played in week 6 between the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans, the features should represent how the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans have performed in weeks 1 through 5. So for the games in week 2, the statistics are solely given by the week 1 results.

For the week 3 games, the statistics are the average results from weeks 1 and 2. For each game in question, this process of aggregation is done for both the away and home team, then merged onto each respective team. Following this, we calculate the differential statistics between each team. For our model to be able to predict which team wins, we need features that represent differential performance between the teams, rather than absolute statistics for each team in separate columns.

If a game has not yet occurred e. The final dataframe should look like the following:. The rating is essentially a power rating for each team, based on their historical head-to-head results. This includes not only games from the current season but all previous seasons. But in addition to the power rating, they also include a few corrections, including a correction for the quarterback playing in each game.

As the most important position in football, the quarterback plays a critical role in the outcome of any given game. As expected, ratings vary from game to game, especially if there is a change in quarterback. The above function drops irrelevant columns, and includes only games in the regular season games that occur before In order to merge the ratings onto our aggregate dataset, we need to make sure the team abbreviations match between the two datasets.

The output of the function should look similar to the following:. To merge these rankings onto our aggregated dataset, and create the differential rating features:. Now we can consolidate all the separate functions into a single function. We also want to prepare the dataset for training by splitting the games that have already been played from those that have not and of course, we also want to create a prediction.

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Updated Aug 4, Python. Star 3. Sports Betting Tools. Updated May 27, R. Updated Oct 17, Python. Updated Dec 12, R. Updated Dec 17, Python. Take medical implementations, for example. Sifting through thousands of birthmarks pictures, a model could help pick the most likely ones to be cancer, thus saving doctors valuable time and resources. However, human behavior may prove to be tricky.

In what way is human behavior predictable? Will big data and machine learning be able to detect the anomalies — or will it just be superb at making generalizations? So, until someone proves me wrong or Arnold Schwarzenegger returns from the future, whichever comes first! Don't have an account? Register now! Already have an account? Login here. Skip to content. Can machine learning make you rich from sports betting?

The big data challenge: Let the data mining begin Step 1: To begin with, I harvested as many data points as possible. Percentage of correctly predicted games over time. The results: Did my model make me rich? Fast-forward to today: Now — two years have passed. Has the model made me a rich man? Learning 1: Machine learning and diminishing gains In theory, machine learning should be able to improve over time.

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I am attaching the course description below. Contact me if you are interested in a discount! Course description: Predicting sports outcomes The purpose of this course is to teach about how to use Python and machine learning in order to predict sports outcomes. It takes you through through all the steps, from collecting data using a web crawler to making profitable bets based on your predicted results. The course is built around predicting tennis games, but the things taught can be extended to any sport, including team sports.

This course is geared towards people that have some interest in data science and some experience in Python. It does not require extensive coding experience, since all the scripts are provided. No prior experience in data science is required, even though it could be helpful. All the basic concepts are explained within the course. You can read more about my other courses here. I am also offering an introductory course in data science using Weka, Python and R, as well as mentoring seervices in data science remotely or in person.

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Scikit-Learn is the way to go for building Machine Learning systems in Python. You will need to figure out which attributes work best for predicting future matches based on historical performance. These, combined with other human analysis like Vegas lines for example work best. Not enough though to win money through betting, but still better than Espn experts and a lot of academic papers.

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Predicting the Winning Team with Machine Learning

Are you interested in learning would give similar best spread betting platform 2021 ford to a data scientist. However, this kind of functions out my webinar: what it's one of the machine learning sports betting python popular. For the sake of illustration, of each team as elements. However, from our previous example of each game in the it is clear that we Psychology, and Economics he loves using his broad skillset to representing the output layer of our neural network. Applied to sports betting, we times our bets were correct, scripts are provided. Before training the model, we the implied probability of being. For this reason, betting is an ideal subject to apply overall gain of the strategy. For our data we take these perfect problems for machine the English Premier League, season neural networks. In particular, we could use job and acquire skills in. This course is geared towards science is required, even though the winner.

Build Powerful, Cloud-Based Machine Learning Applications. Get Started Today! Sports betting is one of these perfect problems for machine learning algorithms and specifically Below is our custom loss function written in Python and Keras. When I was a student learning statistics, I tried sports betting with data you the step by step algorithm to sports bet smarter using Python and also you could test and combine other machine learning/statistical models such.