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The bookie has indicated that it could close up to outlets, with the number of closures ultimately dependent on how gamblers change their habits. William Hill is making progress in fulfilling its American ambitions. Since legislation banning sports betting was overturned in May, six states have legalised this form of gambling, and William Hill is present in all six. Sign in Register. Join our community of smart investors Subscribe. Investment Ideas. A non-cash impairment on the UK retail business wiped out full-year profits.

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Sports betting math

See Dutch book and coherence philosophical gambling strategy. This is achieved primarily by adjusting what are determined to be the true odds of the various outcomes of an event in a downward fashion i. The odds quoted for a particular event may be fixed but are more likely to fluctuate in order to take account of the size of wagers placed by the bettors in the run-up to the actual event e.

This article explains the mathematics of making a book in the simpler case of the former event. For the second method, see Parimutuel betting. It is important to understand the relationship between fractional and decimal odds. Multiplying both a and b by the same number gives odds equivalent to a-b. Decimal odds are a single value, greater than 1, representing the amount to be paid out for each unit bet.

The equivalent decimal odds are 2. Hence, fractional odds of a-1 ie. In considering a football match the event that can be either a 'home win', 'draw' or 'away win' the outcomes then the following odds might be encountered to represent the true chance of each of the three outcomes:. These odds can be represented as implied probabilities or percentages by multiplying by as follows:. The bookmaker, in his wish to avail himself of a profit, will invariably reduce these odds. Consider the simplest model of reducing, which uses a proportional decreasing of odds.

For the above example, the following odds are in the same proportion with regard to their implied probabilities :. Examining how he potentially achieves this:. In reality, bookmakers use models of reducing that are more complicated than the model of the "ideal" situation.

Bookmaker margin in English football leagues decreased in recent years. When a punter bettor combines more than one selection in, for example, a double , treble or accumulator then the effect of the overround in the book of each selection is compounded to the detriment of the punter in terms of the financial return compared to the true odds of all of the selections winning and thus resulting in a successful bet. To explain the concept in the most basic of situations an example consisting of a double made up of selecting the winner from each of two tennis matches will be looked at:.

In Match 1 between players A and B both players are assessed to have an equal chance of winning. The situation is the same in Match 2 between players C and D. In a fair book in each of their matches, i. However, a bookmaker would probably offer odds of for example on each of the two possible outcomes in each event each tennis match. This results in a book for each of the tennis matches of The decimal odds of a multiple bet is often calculated by multiplying the decimal odds of the individual bets, the idea being that if the events are independent then the implied probability should be the product of the implied probabilities of the individual bets.

This represents an implied probability of Thus the overround has slightly more than doubled by combining two single bets into a double. This is why bookmakers offer bets such as Lucky 15 , Lucky 31 and Lucky 63 ; offering double the odds for one winner and increasing percentage bonuses for two, three and more winners.

In general, for any accumulator bet from two to i selections, the combined percentage overround of books of B 1 , B 2 , In settling winning bets either decimal odds are used or one is added to the fractional odds: this is to include the stake in the return.

The place part of each-way bets is calculated separately from the win part; the method is identical but the odds are reduced by whatever the place factor is for the particular event see Accumulator below for detailed example. All bets are taken as 'win' bets unless 'each-way' is specifically stated. Non-runners are treated as winners with fractional odds of zero decimal odds of 1.

Fractions of pence in total winnings are invariably rounded down by bookmakers to the nearest penny below. Calculations below for multiple-bet wagers result in totals being shown for the separate categories e. Each-Way multiple bets are usually settled using a default " Win to Win, Place to Place " method, meaning that the bet consists of a win accumulator and a separate place accumulator Note: a double or treble is an accumulator with 2 or 3 selections respectively.

However, a more uncommon way of settling these type of bets is " Each-Way all Each-Way " known as " Equally Divided ", which must normally be requested as such on the betting slip in which the returns from one selection in the accumulator are split to form an equal-stake each-way bet on the next selection and so on until all selections have been used.

Double [11] [12]. Note: " Win to Win, Place to Place " will always provide a greater return if all selections win, whereas " Each-Way all Each-Way " provides greater compensation if one selection is a loser as each of the other winners provide a greater amount of place money for subsequent selections. Treble [11] [12]. Accumulator [11] [12]. Note: 'All up to win' means there are insufficient participants in the event for place odds to be given e. The only 'place' therefore is first place, for which the win odds are given.

Trixie , Yankee , Canadian , Heinz , Super Heinz and Goliath form a family of bets known as full cover bets which have all possible multiples present. Examples of winning Trixie and Yankee bets have been shown above. Many online betting websites offer an option to display the odds in the preferred format. The table below can help convert odds with pen and paper, for those interested in doing the calculations by hand.

Converting odds to their implied probabilities is perhaps the most interesting part. The general rule for the conversion of any type of odds into an implied probability can be expressed as a formula:. As shown, the formula divides the stake amount wagered by the total payout to get the implied probability of an outcome.

Plug the numbers into the formula, which is a simple matter of dividing 8 by 13 in this example, and the implied probability equals The higher the number, the greater the probability of the outcome. Using an example of decimal odds, a candidate has 2. If so, the implied probability is Therefore, the implied probability equals Moreover, the odds displayed by different bookmakers can vary significantly, meaning that the odds displayed by a bookmaker are not always correct.

The key is to consider a betting opportunity valuable when the probability assessed for an outcome is higher than the implied probability estimated by the bookmaker. The odds on display never reflect the true probability or chance of an event occurring or not occurring. There is always a profit margin added by the bookmaker in these odds, which means that the payout to the successful punter is always less than what they should have received if the odds had reflected the true chances.

The bookmaker needs to estimate the true probability or chance of an outcome correctly in order to set the odds on display in such a way that it profits the bookmaker regardless of an event outcome. If you notice, the total of these probabilities is This is because the odds on display are not fair odds.

The bookie has an edge built into the odds. According to a study published in the Journal of Gambling Studies , the more hands a player wins, the less money they are likely to collect, especially with respect to novice players. Behavioral economics comes into play here. A player continues playing the lottery , either in hopes of a big gain that would eventually offset the losses or the winning streak compels the player to keep playing.

In both cases, it is not rational or statistical reasoning but the emotional high of a win that motivates them to play further. Consider a casino. The house wants you to stay and continue playing. Naturally, the games offered by the casino have a built-in house edge, although the house advantage varies with the game. Moreover, novices find it particularly difficult to do cognitive accounting and people often misjudge the variance of payouts when they have a streak of wins, ignoring the fact that frequent modest gains are eventually erased by losses, which are often less frequent and larger in size.

A betting opportunity should be considered valuable if the probability assessed for an outcome is higher than the implied probability estimated by the bookmaker. Furthermore, the odds on display never reflect the true probability of an event occurring or not occurring.

The payoff on a win is always less than what one should have received if the odds had reflected the true chances. Science Daily. Journal of Gambling Studies. Business Essentials.

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Mathematics can be fun and practical sometimes, and casinos are exploiting this fact for centuries, so if you are planning on making some money by betting on sports, it is time to learn some basics of statistical analysis and game theory. Making money by betting on your favorite team to win is harder than you can imagine, but with some practice and persistence, this can become a nice source of some passive income.

If you enter a casino you may contemplate whether you have better odds of winning by playing poker or betting on Lakers against Miami, and that is a legitimate question. Mach depends on your skill level but choosing the top-quality games made by the best developers like Microgaming or some other reliable developer might increase your chances.

You may check this Microgaming casino list to find those with the best reviews, so you can enjoy some reliable games where betting math and payout rates do not fluctuate. That way you will get some advantage and level that house edge with your deeper understanding of statistics behind your favorite titles.

Some casino games require a certain skill level but betting on sports does too, and that is what makes it so interesting. You have to love sports if making profits by betting is your game plan, otherwise, you may just admit that you are a recreational gambler who places a few bets occasionally just for fun. One can find the best betting opportunities by browsing through casino reviews but finding a good mobile casino is not enough, because your passion for the game or a particular sport is one crucial factor when it comes to smart betting.

There is no secret inside tips that can help you, just some meticulous study of game stats, pay lines, and spreads which gives you some edge over casinos. They are not going to make your life easier, and it is no rocket science to understand that you have to bet correctly more than fifty percent of all your bets for making some profits, and that is presuming that your bets pay two to one.

For those who enjoy playing parlays, the odds of beating any casino are very low, so maybe they should stick to playing slots or poker instead. Putting your money on singles is a way to go, presuming that one knows what he is doing. Placing bets on single games that one studied methodically can dramatically increase his chances of winning , although he needs to play a lot of single games for turning any substantial profit.

That is right, we already pointed out that sports betting is reserved only for sports fanatics, so other folks are better off with enjoying a roulette or blackjack tournament. One should look for a great value in his bet and he will be able to spot a great value only if he is an expert for the sport in question.

Managing his banking and placing some proper amount of money when wagering is another thing that requires practice and experience. Those who set clear parameters and stick to their plan will save a lot of time and cash and placing the same amount of money on every single bet is a proper way to go. This way one will practice discipline that is crucial for succeeding in this endeavor. Those who have a burning passion for any sport are in advantage when it comes to sports betting, as their keen eye will spot the value where others just cannot see it.

Educating yourself about how casinos construct or shift odds to influence our wagering decisions is crucial for gaining an edge over them. Next time when you place a bet on a winning team, remember that math is not just a bunch of numbers but a useful tool that can help you make some real cash.

January 31, The Grueling Truth. Taking this analogy to sports betting, a sports bettor risks a certain amount of capital bankroll by wagering on teams, as opposed to purchasing a financial product. This may be due to the fact that sports bettors tend to place their bets based on factors such as emotions, intuitions, and gut feelings as opposed to research, discipline, and a long-term view of their financial investment.

Permutation betting is an interesting strategy to consider for advanced bettors. Top 5 betting sites. Play now. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp Telegram.