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Starting tomorrow. My colleague Matt Cooper calls it base-camping , and though Morikawa bashed down the door at the first opportunity, he will surely remain among the exceptions to the rule. Most players win their first major having fairly recently had a chance to, and failed to take it. Fleetwood has without question experienced everything required to be ready to win a US Open and, after his performance in Portugal, his game is where it needs to be.
He's long been an excellent scrambler and few are more reliable off the tee - note that both Ogilvy and Love were top-five in total driving during their victories which, in the absence of strokes-gained stats, still tells us something. He's going to go off a similar price to the PGA where we had less to go on, for all he'd played Harding Park before. Indeed it's a similar price to when he chased home Shane Lowry and with the each-way terms on offer, a player who arrives in-form and on a run of 12 cuts made in majors looks well worth siding with.
I think he prepares better than almost anyone for these and knows exactly how to be primed. When it comes to short-games, few are as consistently impressive as Patrick Reed and everything I wrote about him last December remains true - except the price. He'd won that event three years earlier at Bethpage and also contended at Shinnecock, making him a prime candidate.
Here are my antepost selections for the majors in That really is it now for my stuff. Ten years since I moved north for a radio job. Never knew then I'd get to write about golf pretty much every week throughout the decade. The fact he's not had to play out of his skin in the weeks prior to this one to more than halve in price tells you plenty about those early quotes, but I don't particularly wish to go back in.
For those not on already - and I appreciate that will be the majority of readers - he's considered no more than a fair price, but very much likeable in terms of profile. Another who should get up and down more than most is Matt Fitzpatrick, who has been 12th in the last two US Opens.
He might well be the best putter among the game's elite right now and his form on tough courses lately includes sixth at Olympia Fields and Southwind and third at Muirfield Village, all of which puts him on the radar given how highly I rate him. The trouble is for all power isn't the only requirement and perhaps not this time the primary one, it would be second or third on the list. Asked to summarise in a sentence I would say the winner will be among the best around the greens of the best drivers, and the Englishman may just be giving up too much ground off the tee.
Finau was eighth in the Memorial where he was a short price having burst clear early in round three, fourth in the PGA Championship where he did absolutely nothing wrong, and fifth at Olympia Fields thanks this time to a quality short-game. Around the greens he's ranked 12th and sixth in his last two starts and if he can bring that with him to Winged Foot, where his strength off the tee will be a big advantage if properly channelled, he looks a massive contender.
Without wishing to go over old ground, Finau's lack of wins doesn't concern me as much as you might think. He was dreadfully unfortunate in both the Phoenix Open and the HSBC Champions, losing play-offs in both, and has stood tall in majors ever since he was 14th at Chambers Bay in what was his very first appearance.
Since then he's bagged seven top finishes in 15 starts, including fifth place in this one at nearby Shinnecock, and if and when he does break through with that second win do not be at all surprised if it's at the very highest level. This is where he belongs, and it's on championship golf courses that his skills are really brought to the surface.
Finau was just a little underwhelming at East Lake but that was all down to an off-week with the driver, which is not like him. In fact it was his first negative strokes-gained figure off the tee since March and I would expect him to brush it off quickly. Winged Foot ought to suit and he's another who can be expected to perform. Paul Casey is respected along with Adam Scott, the pair having played well in the edition, but that's probably not a significant edge following 14 years and some Gil Hanse modifications.
Unlike the first three selections, there's a recent form risk here - Day was abysmal at TPC Boston where he missed the cut, and no better in the BMW Championship last time. Troublingly, on both occasions his approach play - always in and out but very good in the weeks prior to these events - fell off a cliff, and he'll need to have fixed it without old coach Col Swatton.
That's a very definite worry, but Day's credentials are otherwise very good and he was much better in the final round at Olympia Hills, signing off a poor week with a quality round of Day led the field with his approaches at Harding Park and for a time on Sunday afternoon looked the likely winner. Hinting that he was back close to the levels of , when he won the US PGA and four other titles on his way to world number one, that was his fourth top finish in succession and promised plenty for the months ahead.
Bar the blip - and we saw how quickly Johnson put a poor fortnight behind him - Day would be an obvious candidate here, having been runner-up at Baltusrol and Ridgewood, won at Plainfield, and been third at Bethpage. He was also eighth despite a poor start at Oakmont, whose greens are comparable to these, and five tops in his first six US Open appearances underline how well suited he is to this challenge.
Essentially, Day hits it long and high and has a magnificent short-game, surely the best on Tour when on-song, so he fits the bill in profile and he has bags of form on greens similar to these. Mackenzie Hughes has a brilliant short-game and could go a long way with it, but Byeong Hun An looks the best option. Winner of the US Amateur before taking the BMW PGA in his first year on the European Tour, An still has all the tools to become a bonafide member of the world's elite - he'll just need to cut out the big numbers and find a degree of consistency with the putter.
In trying to address the latter he's been working with Brad Faxon and the results were immediate as he contended at Southwind, playing in the final group before stepping aside as Thomas and Koepka served up a dramatic finish. An then made a hole-in-one en route to 22nd in the PGA Championship and when last we saw him played excellent golf throughout the weekend at Olympia Fields, back-to-back rounds of 68 enough for 12th place.
That's three high-class performances in his last four starts and his approach play in particular has come alive. Given that he's long been outstanding around the greens, a solid week with the driver married to the sort of putting he showed on similar greens in San Francisco could make him a big each-way contender.
Ultimately though he's played well without threatening in a handful of majors, including finishes of 16th and 23rd in this one, and a top finish might be as good as it gets. I'm happy to go into battle with a team of four, all equipped for this fearsome test which lies ahead. We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to overs and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
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The obvious counter is that the game has changed, hence the recent totals of and in two of the last three years. However, it's worth noting that the USGA tend to react when low scores are posted. So, following Gary Woodland's at Pebble Beach in , it's fair to assume the trend continues.
Winged Foot looks the ideal place to test the theory and, of course, the pandemic means there will be no crowds to trample down the thick rough. Follow Dave on twitter DaveTindallgolf. Here's my first-round leader preview for the US Open. You'll have to shop around and weight stakes accordingly here but the basic message is this: take on Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson in the top left-hander market. Watson has an abysmal record in the US Open, missing five of his last six cuts and failing to threaten since way back in It seems as though he's concluded this semi-absurd grind isn't really for him and his close-range putting remains a major issue.
As for Mickelson, he has demons to lay to rest here and could go well - but there are risks attached and he's short enough. The main issue is he hit three fairways in total last weekend and he'll not get away with that here.
Harman has been 11th and 12th in his last two starts and his best US Open finish - second in - is better than anything Bubba has done. Both have the grit for this and if either can make the weekend, that really could do it. Follow Ben on twitter BenColeyGolf. I just still think the numbers are outstanding. Follow Matt on twitter MattCooperGolf. With bumper places on offer all I am asking for is a repeat of his last two performances where he was eighth in the BMW Championship and seventh in the TOUR Championship, although that comes with the caveat of a larger field.
His game has been solid in all departments though — he actually led the all-around stats at East Lake as not only was his putting good but he was second for driving accuracy and fifth for greens in regulation, attributes he will require this week. It was exactly this time last year that he followed a seventh place at the Greenbrier with his first PGA Tour win at the Sanderson Farms, and the last time he played in New York he was runner-up on the Korn Ferry tour in Follow Ian on twitter SBIdotcom.
At almost 30 years old the Canadian fits the long-held view that a golfer peaks around that age as he's in the form of his life right now. The tournament was a little more subdued but just as thrilling as in years gone by, Tony Finau having his pocket picked by Webb Simpson just as Rickie Fowler had by Hideki Matsuyama in Fowler got his revenge on the course in , coping best with wicked weather conditions, but Scottsdale resident Finau has chosen to fly off to Saudi Arabia instead of seeking his.
This year, crowds are massively reduced and the atmosphere will be materially affected. This latest reminder of the world as it is - or at least, this part of the world - is unwelcome for everyone, but I'm not of the view that we should change our way of thinking about the event. It's easy to see a high-class honours board as evidence that inexperienced players and journeymen alike have found it all too much, but a meek Kyle Stanley won here on debut, and two-time winner Matsuyama wouldn't be one who searches for the limelight.
The health and safety of everyone here at TPCScottsdale is of the utmost importance. Please join us in adhering to all safety requirements and guidelines while attending the WasteManagement Phoenix Open. Let's all be safe and have fun! Throw in Kevin Stadler and Gary Woodland as past champions and my interpretation is that the course plays into the hands of exceptional ball-strikers, a point underlined by some near misses for Bubba Watson, Jason Dufner and Graham DeLaet.
That is perhaps more the case now than ever, after changes made by Tom Weiskopf in which immediately achieved his aim: to reduce the prospect of another 59 and ensure the course remains a decent challenge for modern professionals. More specifically, approach play has been key to unlocking scoring opportunities at Scottsdale. Seven of the 11 winners dating back to the beginning of the last decade ended the week ranked fourth or better; four of the 11 led the field.
That's a very strong pointer and a further indication that the top of the market is probably the place to focus on, as it has tended to be here. What else is there to say? The Spaniard is hard to keep out of the frame and those fitness doubts ahead of last week's event were quickly dispelled, while his improved ball-striking suggests new clubs are beginning to sing.
He was always going to be favourite here ahead of Justin Thomas, who off the course has reacted in precisely the right way to his abhorrent comment in Hawaii, but who on it still has a little to prove. Third in each of the last two renewals of this, perhaps he'll welcome the smaller crowds for one year only and he's shown many times in the past that he is both prone to an out-of-the-blue shocker, and adept at swiftly bouncing back.
He'll need to after a missed cut in Abu Dhabi where he putted terribly. It's well-documented by now that McIlroy struggled when the PGA Tour returned last summer, although it was later revealed that his mind was elsewhere with his wife, Erica, pregnant. He's since become a dad and whether you want to call it the nappy factor or just focus on the distraction element, the change in his performance level has been marked.
Rory hasn't finished worse than 21st in his seven starts since, with four tops. The eight starts from June's resumption to the arrival of his daughter returned zero tops, and he was outside the top 30 six times. Short-game trouble is the statistical explanation for how he played last summer, but I prefer a more subjective one: McIlroy just couldn't get into competition mode, with parenthood on the horizon and no fans at the course to help generate that energy he needs.
On that score, even a few thousand fans in Phoenix is a positive, but the key factors are that he's in a good place mentally and is driving the ball exceptionally again, his iron play has improved, and he's putted well in every single event since his wife gave birth. With his short-game holding its own, he looks back in the sort of form which, don't forget, had seen him win four of his 24 starts before the aborted PLAYERS Championship, hitting the top 10 in 14 more of them.
Scottsdale should be a great fit for McIlroy, especially if he can dial in his irons just a shade. He can go out and attack the course with driver, reducing all three par-fives to a mid-iron and knocking his three-wood onto the driveable 17th. And while much is made of his approach play - plainly, he's not as good a wedge player as Thomas - his relative struggles are exaggerated by where he is hitting it to.
Put another way, it's quite difficult to gain substantial ground with approaches played from ideal positions, but McIlroy with a wedge is going to hit the ball closer than whoever else with a seven-iron. Having led the field in greens hit last week despite ranking 68th in driving accuracy, he should be able to be more aggressive with his approaches at this easier course, where the greens have been softened by rain in the build-up.
As for the surfaces themselves, he said it all himself at Torrey Pines: "I'm looking forward to getting on some truer greens. Returning to the original statement: I think this course is McIlroy's dream. And thankfully, when I shared this idea a couple of years ago, a highly-respected data analyst who worked with Ryder Cup-winning consultants 15th Club at the time revealed that Scottsdale ranked as the number one fit for Rory on the PGA Tour.
Let's hope we're both right. I put up Daniel Berger when last sighted in the Sony Open and he played solid golf for seventh, bemoaning easy conditions which he felt kept him out of contention. Two wins at Southwind and another at Colonial confirm that the Floridian doesn't want a shootout, and the slight toughening of conditions from Waialae to Scottsdale is in his favour, a fact underlined by a strong record here.
Im was the same price as Berger with most firms at the Sony, where he just never got anything going on the greens. As such it was encouraging to hear him talk about a couple of small changes to his set-up and method going into the American Express, where he returned to his best and ranked second in putting. It was disappointing to see him make two huge mistakes in that event, having been atop the leaderboard at halfway, and the same can be said of Sunday's back-nine at Torrey Pines.
Briefly, Im got to within a shot of Patrick Reed, but bogeys at the 10th and 11th halted his progress and a double at the 12th ended his chance altogether. These mistakes are a little troubling from such an assured ball-striker, but closer inspection reveals his downward spiral in the Farmers began with two very short misses on bumpy, poa annua greens. As will be clear to regular readers by now, the Korean is a significantly better putter on bermuda and, having been compensated with a bigger price, I'm willing to trust him to cut out the errors in his long-game.
Matsuyama has to be considered given his flawless Scottsdale record bar withdrawing with an injury in , when he'd made a bright start as defending champion. Still, he was very disappointing last week, his long-game deserting him, and I can't take six or eight points shorter following a share of 53rd place at a course he does also enjoy. JB Holmes, Phil Mickelson and Matsuyama are the latest three to take this title more than once, Holmes beating Mickelson in a play-off two years after a seven-shot romp on debut, and Fowler looks to have his game back in the sort of shape required to complete his own double.
He should've won here in , a combination of misfortune, a lack of ruthlessness and Matsuyama confining him to one of the more painful runner-up finishes of his career. And he probably should've won it in , too, when a costly decision to lay-up at the 15th on Sunday saw Hunter Mahan take the title.
Fowler then is a course specialist, with a win, two runner-up finishes, fourth and 13th place among his 12 visits. He's carded a round of 62 and even last year, when struggling and defending his title, he responded to a nightmare first-round 74 to shoot and climb to a position of respectability.
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With a recent roll of honour that reads Justin Rose, Martin Kaymer, Spieth and Johnson, it is hard to veer too far away from proven performers at the very top of the sport. To that end, Rickie Fowler and Jon Rahm look ideal candidates as outright tips as they attempt to join Sergio Garcia as a maiden major championship winner in That has been the case for McIlroy and Spieth at some stage or other but Rahm has every opportunity to be equally dynamic having burst into the paid ranks on the back of a stellar collegiate career that saw him become the first player to ever win the Ben Hogan Award twice.
Competing on an invitation in at the Waste Management Phoenix Open as an alumni of Arizona State University, not many amateurs rock up against the pros and finish T5 as he wowed galleries and observers alike with his sensational all-round game. He has quickly progressed to PGA Tour winner after draining a snaking eagle putt on the 72nd hole for victory at Torrey Pines earlier this year and has excelled since in defeat after he made a red-hot DJ pull out all the stops at successive WGC events in Mexico and Texas.
It is hard to fathom at timesn that Rahm is still only 22 but these young bucks seem in no mood to hang about or build towards winning at this level in more gradual fashion having served the sort of apprenticeship you would have expected 25 or 30 years ago. All ideal credentials for Erin Hills - credentials which are vastly improved from 12 months ago when he finished an excellent T23 and was leading amateur medallist for the week at Oakmont.
The odd sign of frustration can still bubble to the surface and this is definitely not the place to lose your rag, but Rahm has a wonderfully affable, laid-back personality and it is not difficult to see him taking that next step up the ladder even though it might be a pretty sizeable one. An 82 at the PLAYERS and a missed cut in The Memorial might not be too much of a setback looking at the bigger picture as he still managed to sandwich a T2 at Colonial in between before turning his attentions to this week.
A missed cut at the FedEx St Jude Classic aside — more on that shortly — Fowler might just have the most complete profile currently and is well capable of putting himself in position for victory once more. He might have expected better a fortnight ago at Muirfield Village as well when T2 behind Jason Dufner but he walked off the course with absolutely no complaints having hit the shots he wanted to when it mattered - it just happened playing partner Dufner was better on the day.
Ideally, you would perhaps rather not see his weekend exit in Memphis on the record as it was all part of the plan for Fowler to get in four more competitive rounds to finalise his schedule. He never really got going though after a double and a triple bogey early on Thursday, but I was taken with the way he rallied late on Friday with a back-nine 32 to try to squeeze in for the final He ultimately came up shy, but he showed spirit and it was clear evidence his game had not deserted him.
Fowler remains under pressure to finally produce at this level and he must put to bed that nagging doubt over whether he is perhaps nasty enough to trample over his rivals if necessary on the biggest of Sunday afternoons. But his wonderful driving, pinpoint irons, smart short game and fearless putting look tailor-made for the challenge ahead and that makes him the man to beat in my book.
Horse Racing. Tips Centre. US Open golf betting tips and preview. Come the end of the week his driving stats made for grim reading and a repeat of them would have him in enormous trouble. He's tough and gritty and while not the longest by any stretch, he does boast a world-class putting stroke when at his best - which we saw last time. He was a shot better than Bubba in Illinois last time and that gap may well widen if the latter again fails to raise an effort in a tournament he quite simply doesn't like.
The aim here is really to get one through to the weekend as that could be enough, and MacIntyre managed that despite an opening 80 at Valderrama. He knows how to grind, too, and is nice and fresh. At the PGA Championship, where easier conditions ought to have helped coax more out of Watson and where Mickelson was also disappointing, all four lefties made the weekend.
Nevertheless Harman was first, MacIntyre second, and I would be hopeful that they don't need to do any more than they've been doing to dominate this sub-category again, for all winning might be beyond them at a course which should reward power. Although not especially keen to take on Jon Rahm in any way, there's no denying he looks very short to be the top continental European.
This course is so ridiculously difficult that anyone - Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Tommy Fleetwood, take your pick - could run up seriously big numbers without doing much wrong. It may come from a mental mistake, perhaps one of execution, but it would not take much for a bogey to become a triple and so on.
Nothing is certain when pars are so hard to find. The Frenchman played some horrid stuff out of lockdown but 22nd in the PGA Championship, where he was tied for second in this market behind Rahm, was encouraging. Perhaps even more so was his performance in Spain where his all-important long-game returned at just the right time. At 51st in the world, Perez is the sixth-ranked player in this market, yet finds himself more than halfway down the betting. I don't think he's as likely as Martin Kaymer to expose any errors from Rahm or weaknesses in Viktor Hovland's short-game, but he still looks quite a bit overpriced.
That said I'm generally positive about Romain Langasque, and Mike Lorenzo Vera has produced the goods at a high level for some time now. It's not impossible that all three make the weekend and Paul Barjon could join them. The numbers speak for themselves: he's missed eight from 13 in this including five of his last six and simply doesn't look forward to what lies ahead.
Quite obviously this won't go into the staking plan as it's not a serious bet and can't be accessed by everyone. The other elements are either of the two selections above to be the top left-hander, in itself related to the Watson wager; outright tip Tommy Fleetwood to finish in the top 20; and Sebastian Munoz to be top South American.
The latter is odds-against to beat Joaquin Niemann. Long-term, the Chilean of course has much more ability and potential, and if we go back far enough his head-to-head record over Munoz is superior. However, the Colombian has beaten Niemann in four of their last six starts and is playing consistently well.
That includes Harding Park, albeit by just a shot, and Niemann is yet to produce in majors. My advice would be very small-stakes only. We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to overs and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose. If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on , or visit begambleaware. Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.
Feel like he has a. Starting in 15 days time. PARAGRAPHSubscription-free, you can use our predictor models as much as you like and as many this year at our golf betting tips homepage. Archived predictor models are here. Currently one under, so well. Worth a punt at these. Bookmaker of the month. He is also only five an obviously cliff top challenge, good when you build in next three rounds. Golf Betting Tips - Season. I am backing him to in the tournament.Recommended bets. 2pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9) 2pts e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 35/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9) 2pts e.w. Tony Finau at 35/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9) 2pts e.w. Jason Day at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9). Lee Westwood looks to be rounding into form in time for another crack at the US Open, where he can win his Thursday three-ball. Ben Coley is taking on two major champions in the top left-hander betting ahead of the US Open, where a talented Frenchman also makes his.