2004 australian federal election betting

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2004 australian federal election betting

In the southern Adelaide seat of Boothby, Labor nominated Nicole Cornes, Sunday Mail columnist, described in the press as glamorous , and wife of a South Australian football legend. Cornes was quoted as saying that she had voted for John Howard in the past , but that it was time for a change. She also stated that when you read in the newspapers about what is going on in the world you start to form opinions. To Kevin Rudd, Cornes was South Australian through and through , as well as being bright and articulate.

Unfortunately for Cornes and her party, she began to have campaign problems, many of her own making. The detail-challenged candidate confused Labor s industrial relations policy with WorkChoices, she refused an ABC interview because she was not prepared for anything heavy , and when questioned on her party s industrial relations policy responded: What is it that people don t get? Is it specific policy details? We can all go to a website and do that. She received front-page coverage when she turned heads with her revealing dress worn to the farewell Government House dinner for the Governor and polls suggested that many female voters did not respond well to her.

In addition, some Labor Party members were said to be unhappy with her preselection, due to her having attacked Labor values in her newspaper column. As Cornes joint campaign manager noted, she was an easy target. Cornes did not win the seat, and Labor s first preference vote fell by 1. Boothby was the only South Australian seat where there was a drop in Labor s first preference vote.

Many electorates can change over time, so that they become safer or more marginal for a particular party as in the case of Bennelong. This can be brought about by redistribution of boundaries; it can also be affected by population changes within the existing boundaries. In the case of Corangamite, originally a wholly-rural seat held by conservative parties for all but five years since Federation, change came about largely as a consequence of the physical growth of Geelong, combined with the arrival of sea-changers on the Bellarine Peninsula.

The Liberal sitting member, Stewart McArthur, won Corangamite in , and in the five elections 96 averaged a first preference vote of In the elections of this fell to By the time of the election Corangamite was being described as a mortgage belt seat, ripe for plucking by the Labor Party, which signified its hopes by the announcement of a marked increase in proposed campaign spending in the electorate.

Despite McArthur criticising his challenger, Darren Cheeseman, as a Ballarat-residing union official rather than a local, Labor gained enough first preferences Cheeseman is the first ALP member for Corangamite since McArthur blamed the media for the result, claiming that it did not give Kevin Rudd the same harsh treatment it handed out to the Prime Minister.

In Victoria various Labor candidates lost pre-selection to prominent party newcomers. Unlike Sercombe and Corcoran, who publicly accepted their loss of pre-selection, O Connor attacked what he described as Labor s rampant branch-stacking, rorting of democratic process, illicit fund-raising, money laundering and grubby backyard deals and nominated as an independent candidate.

Labor s margin was 5. More concerning was the Liberal Party s use of these events to illustrate the danger of unions exerting undue influence over Labor. He received Labor retained Corio with ease, aided by 52 per cent of O Connor s preferences. In , the Liberals Kay Elson won Forde, in a semi-rural area south of Brisbane, with a first preference vote of After having her vote increase in each following election to reach With the help of a redistribution, Elson had left her seat in good shape, for the ALP would need to achieve an All was apparently not well with Creighton s campaign efforts, for there were soon reports of local Liberals being so dismayed by their candidate that they were said to have abandoned her and to be focussing their efforts on assisting her Nationals opponent.

There were suggestions that this followed instructions from the Liberal Party s national headquarters. However, Creighton was unable to lever a Liberal win, with Labor scoring a large two-party preferred swing of In the 06 redistribution of NSW electorates there was some local unhappiness at various changes. One was the Redistribution Committee s proposal to push Macquarie past its traditional Blue Mountains border so as to place west of the Great Dividing Range towns like Lithgow, Oberon and Bathurst into what had been a Blue Mountains seat.

There also was dismay that the five historic Macquarie towns of Richmond, Windsor, Pitt Town, Wilberforce and Castlereagh were all being moved east into the seat of Greenway. Objections to the proposed changes to Macquarie were not accepted by the Redistribution Committee. The outcome was that Macquarie seemed far less safe for its Liberal sitting member and Greenway much safer for its Liberal MP.

The outcome in the two seats was as generally predicted. Despite a 5. In the previous election, Kerry Bartlett had won Macquarie with over 53 per cent of first preferences. In , the Liberal first preference vote in Bartlett s redistributed electorate rose by 4. Clearly, the redistribution had altered the political makeup of these two electorates. A few days before the election it was revealed that the husband of the retiring Liberal MP for Lindsay NSW , Jackie Kelly, together with the husband of the new Liberal candidate, had distributed a document purporting to come from a fictitious body, the Islamic Australia Foundation.

The document asked recipients to vote ALP and thanked Labor for its support to forgive our Muslim brothers who have been unjustly sentenced to death for the Bali bombing. It also thanked the party for its support over the building of a controversial mosque in the area. The press was critical of these events that later became subject to court proceedings. Lindsay duly was lost to Labor which enjoyed a first preference swing of This may have been partly due to the retirement of the popular sitting member, Jackie Kelly, combined with the fact that the electorate was vulnerable due to the high level of exposure of many of its residents to financial stress.

It was a remarkable instance of a party losing momentary control over a local campaign in a way that may have sealed the defeat of its candidate. He had retained the seat in with a In despite Brough being opposed by Jon Sullivan, a Queensland MLA between and , the media consensus was that the sitting member s chances of re-election were good. Brough clearly was not so certain, for there was speculation that he might seek to push Peter Slipper out of the nearby electorate of Fairfax.

In the event, Brough s public standing seemed to be irrelevant to the result, for he lost Longman after a first preference drop of 7. However, Longman was just one of a number of Liberal seats in the immediate north and west of Brisbane which were held by seemingly-competent sitting members and in which the party vote fell quite substantially.

The result in McEwen fluctuated during the counting. After leading on first preferences by 5. Bailey s party challenged the result and after a recount she was confirmed as the winner by 12 votes. However, Labor s national secretary claimed that the Australian Electoral Commission had wrongly excluded votes that the Labor Party had believed to be valid. On 29 January it was announced that the defeated Labor candidate, Rob Mitchell, had filed a petition with the High Court as the Court of Disputed Returns, challenging the final result.

The plaintiff was concerned with the way in which ballot papers had been treated during the count. Crennan noted the difficult matter in which neither the plaintive nor the defendant might have access to the ballot papers that were in dispute.

At the time of writing the Federal Court of Australia has set down 1 May as the day for a directions hearing of the matter. In , Malcolm Turnbull won Liberal pre-selection for Wentworth from the sitting member, Peter King, who then contested the election as an independent. Turnbull took the seat with a first preference vote of The 06 NSW redistribution seemed to have made the seat much more marginal than it had been, giving Turnbull a margin prior to the election of barely 2.

In , the sitting member had ten opponents, including an apparently stronger Labor opponent in George Newhouse, Mayor of Waverley, a prominent member of the local Jewish community. The contest was confused by a number of potentially-important factors. Wentworth was said to have a strong environmental community and the vocal Australian Green campaign was supported by prominent businessman turned environmentalist, Geoff Cousins.

The major party candidates were both aware of the relatively large gay community in the electorate, many of whom had been residents in the adjacent seat of Sydney prior to the redistribution. Newhouse was opposed by his former partner, who nominated as an independent, but more significantly, there were suggestions that he had not resigned from several government appointments at the time of his nomination as a candidate.

His nomination was therefore possibly invalid. Newhouse handled questions on the issue very awkwardly and without much conviction. In the end, despite a fall in the Liberal vote across the nation, Turnbull won on first preferences with After the election, the Coalition s 39 Senate seats gave it control over the upper house, the first time this had been achieved since However, the nett loss of a single seat in would see this relinquished.

As the election drew closer, polls suggested that a fall in support for the Coalition, combined with the strong likelihood that in Tasmania, at least, Labor and the Greens would win four of that state s seats, would strip control from the Coalition.

By contrast, Labor had no realistic chance of gaining control of the Senate. If it were to win government, the best Senate result that it could achieve was three seats from each state and one from each territory. The party would not achieve the statewide vote of Consequently, the best that an incoming Labor Government could hope for was to hold 34 seats in the post July Senate five short of an absolute majority.

Even this seemed unlikely, however, for polls suggested that the party might have difficulty in winning three seats in Western Australia. There is a certain predictability to Senate contests, but in several developments made the contest and outcome more interesting than usual. In South Australia , the unexpected nomination of poker machine opponent, Nick Xenophon, produced speculation about a likely increase in the minor party vote in that state.

Xenophon had won a Legislative Council seat in and had easily been re-elected in on a With the Australian Greens optimistic of winning a seat, the Australian Democrats clinging on to their Senate membership in the state that had been kindest to them and Family First hopeful of performing well, it seemed that the battle for each of the major parties would be to manage to win a third seat. By contrast, the Australian Greens were confident that their ticket, headed by Richard di Natale, twice narrowly beaten for a Legislative Assembly seat, would be successful.

It was felt that the Greens statewide vote of ten per cent in the state election would be the base upon which the state s first Green senator would be elected. However, it seemed unlikely that both the Australian Democrats and the Greens would win a seat. In Family First had surprised by winning its only Senate seat in Victoria and the party was keen to repeat the feat.

Although this seemed improbable, Family First preferences might be very important in the final result. In Queensland , the Coalition had unexpectedly won four seats in , thanks to the strong effort of the separate Liberal ticket. At the same time, the Greens optimism about winning the party s first Queensland Senate seat was strong.

A possible wild card was the nomination of former One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson as leader of Pauline s United Australia Party , the official abbreviation of which Pauline. The position in the ACT was also of great interest. Territory senators take up their seats immediately the Parliament resumes after an election, unlike state senators whose terms begin on 1 July following the election.

Advertisements calling on voters to Save Our Senate began to appear in Canberra. Greens leader Bob Brown, Democrats leader Lyn Allison and ACT Labor senator Kate Lundy called on voters to support one of their candidates in order to remove control of the upper house from the Coalition from the beginning of the new parliament: it s time to restore the balance in our house of review. This unusual joint call was aided by the grassroots political movement GetUp, which apparently paid for the advertisements.

She had led a Green Senate ticket in , which gained The major parties won 18 Senate seats each which meant that the Coalition will lose control of the upper house after 1 July Despite the large number of minor party candidates, and the success of four of these in winning seats, the major party share of the vote Its performance was only moderate, however, for in each of Western Australia and South Australia it failed to win three seats.

The Coalition vote of It failed to win three seats in South Australia and Tasmania. The Australian Greens won their first seat in South Australia and that, together with a seat won in each of Western Australia and Tasmania, gave the party five seats in the new Senate, it highest-ever figure. Victoria and Queensland are the states yet to send a Green to the national upper house. Nick Xenophon won a South Australian seat.

He and Bob Brown, both won their seats on the first count, a relatively unusual outcome for minor party candidates. The failure of the Labor and Liberal Parties each to win a third seat in South Australia was only the second time that both major teams have failed to win a third seat in a particular state; the first occasion had been in Queensland in Since the ACT and the Northern Territory gained two senators in , the Labor and major non-Labor party have always shared each territory s two seats.

The ACT Greens gained a respectable The Australian Democrat national vote was 1. No candidate was elected. As no party member had been elected in , this means that the party will have no presence in the parliament for the first time since gaining two Senate places in the election.

After the new Senate members have taken their seats on 1 July , the Coalition parties will have 37 seats, Labor will have 32, the Australian Greens tally will be five, Family First will have one and there will be one independent. The Government will therefore need the support of all non-Coalition senators to be certain of the passage of legislation. Speculation about the Liberal leadership was an awkward burden that the Coalition Government carried through most of the final Howard term.

Journalists asked the Prime Minister many times about his future, to which he would respond along the lines of: I will remain leader of the Liberal Party as long as my party wants me to and it s in the party s best interests that I do so. Costello was said to have agreed that he would not contest the leadership at that time were Howard to nominate once more, but was said to have been guaranteed a chance to lead the Liberals when the older man retired halfway through his second term.

With opinion polls in mid-July indicating a marked drop in the Government s standing, the press reported that Howard had confronted his Cabinet colleagues with the question, Is it me? Two months later the public learned of soundings having been taken by the Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer, in September , on the question of whether or not Howard should remain in office. When Downer reported that a majority of Cabinet preferred that he step aside for Costello, the Prime Minister chose to remain, reportedly after discussions with his family.

On 12 September, Howard told radio 2GB that at a Liberal party meeting there had been absolutely no evidence of any desire on the part of the party for any change in the current leadership team. But well into my term, I would come to the conclusion that it would be in the best interests of everybody if I retired, and in those circumstances, I would expect Peter to take over, but that would be a matter for the Party. Now, that is the honest truth, and I think most of your viewers believe it would be the case.

With Howard thus remaining in his position for the election, there was now much more of an effort made by the Liberal Party to present a picture of a united leadership team. When the Party s website altered its front page by replacing a photograph of Howard with one of Howard and Costello, it caused one journalist to speak of there being a genuine two-faced Liberal leader, the Howard-Costello model.

Elect one get one free. Many in the Coalition were dismayed when the eye-catching headline, Pass baton to Costello , headed an Australian piece by Janet Albrechtsen, one of the most significant of Howard-supporting journalists.

The failure of the Prime Minister to leave office before the election has been described by his successor as a powerful factor in the Coalition s defeat: Eleven-and-a-half years in the modern era is an eternity to the everyday Australian. What might have been the electoral situation had Costello become Liberal Party leader and hence, Prime Minister? The Costello case may have been the same. However, many of his colleagues were opposed to such a leadership change, primarily it seems, because they feared for their seats.

In a Newspoll conducted in April , Costello had barely headed Kim Beazley when respondents were asked who would make the better Prime Minister. In , about one-third of respondents claimed they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition were Costello to replace Howard as Prime Minister. It was findings such as these that Liberal MPs who supported the Prime Minister were said to have used when opposing leadership change within the party. According to such partisans, it seemed clear that the Government s best chance of re-election rested with Howard.

There were at least two factors that could suggest that a change of leadership might have lessened the leadership problem for the Government. Costello was recognised favourably for his work as Treasurer and were he to have become Prime Minister, his standing in the polls would probably have improved at least in the short term. This is because a person in the job is likely to produce more favourable responses than if he is not.

Kevin Rudd s perceived suitability to serve as Leader of the Opposition jumped immediately he replaced Beazley, as had Mark Latham s. The same might well have occurred for Costello. Alexander Downer appeared to concede this point when he was quoted as saying that appointment of the Treasurer to the Prime Ministership, must at least give us chance [of retaining office]. It was argued by Costello supporters that their man could have broken the impasse and helped reduce Labor s lead.

The replacement of Kim Beazley with a relatively unknown leader, seemed to be the event that pushed Labor into the winning position that it held until polling day. This suggests that many voters had been looking for a non-Beazley alternative to the Prime Minister. Newspoll figures indicate how marked and sudden public acceptance of the change proved to be. Table 2 provides these figures in more depth, comparing the average of the final ten Newspolls of the Beazley period with the first ten polls of the Rudd leadership:.

Table 2: Party standings before and after the election of Kevin Rudd as leader Newspoll. The accession of Rudd therefore made it seem much more likely that the Government could be defeated. But could the Opposition remain united and error-free for the 10 11 months that remained before the election was likely to be held? Sol Lebovic of Newspoll spoke of many voters, who had actually parked their vote with Labor for the time being while they decided to watch its performance on the way to the election.

Lebovic believed that the campaign would indicate whether or not such voters were satisfied by what they saw and heard. In fact, the final result was a confirmation of what had been clear from the advent of Rudd s term as Labor leader, namely that enough swinging voters seemed to have been satisfied by the change, and remained so. In fact, Newspoll findings suggested that perhaps as many as 53 per cent of voters had decided over half a year in advance how they would vote and followed through on 24 November.

It also suggests that Labor s campaign, which so often saw Rudd avoiding the typical we re right and they re wrong stance of the past, was an important part of his party s victory. Table 3: Party standings December November Newspoll. The election was therefore significant for its lack of volatility in the polls and its general air of predictability despite the views of those observers who seemed to believe that the gap between the parties would eventually disappear.

There are two economies that can be relevant to election outcomes. As noted earlier in this paper, when asked about the big picture the national economy and the macroeconomic issues the Coalition invariably was preferred in polling returns. Here, it has been suggested, people in outer metropolitan areas, who had supported the Prime Minister in his promise to keep interest rates low, responded strongly against the rise in rates since that election, with the mid-campaign rise on 7 November biting hard.

With headlines talking of Howard and Costello having apologised to those Australians who had been hit with the mortgage rise, the Prime Minister kept the issue alive by stating that his use of the word sorry was a expression of regret, but did not mean that he was apologising for the rise. Media comment was not kind to the Coalition.

Rudd s line about the PM deceiving people in will resonate with many people, regardless of Howard s protestations about precisely what he promised. At the Australasian Political Science Association conference in late September , one of the authors of this research paper was struck by the apparent unanimity of the assembled political science academics that WorkChoices and the introduction of Australian Workplace Agreements AWA had been a crucial mistake for the Howard Government.

Opinion polls no doubt underpinned the academics views. In an October Newspoll, 40 per cent of respondents said WorkChoices was somewhat bad or very bad ; by April , this had climbed to 48 per cent. Even 22 per cent of Coalition voters labelled the legislation as bad. This was presumably because this workplace legislation impacted in particular on younger workers it brought wage issues into the homes of relatively well-to-do Australians.

All of which was presumably reinforced by difficulties with the legislation faced both by managers and workers. The later introduction of a new fairness test , itself an acknowledgement that the original legislation was hurting wage earners, did not restore Coalition support. The legislation had been the result of a prime ministerial rush of blood according to one critical journalist:. It was a move that threatened to strip people of conditions and benefits that were part of their way of life: penalty rates for working the midnight shift; overtime to pay for a holiday or family pizza on a Friday night; weekend allowances to compensate for not getting to the kids sport WorkChoices was a flawed policy and Howard, normally sensitive to the aspirations of the Howard battlers, was blinded by his own ideological conviction.

WorkChoices, of itself, may not have caused the destruction of the Government, but it was probably a major factor in its fall. This legislation would not have been passed in the form that it had, if the Government had failed to gain control of the Senate in the election. Professor Judith Brett of La Trobe University has claimed that in pushing for the passage of the legislation, Howard handed the middle ground to Labor.

The reasons why some voters reject a government at election time are various, and it is probably more likely to be a collection of factors rather than a single issue that turns people away or discourages voters from shifting their vote to a particular government. The longer a government remains in office, the more that it is likely to antagonise or frustrate members of the public. The Howard Government s experience was no different, and although on some controversial issues its opponent was inclined to present a me-too face to the voters, it is likely that some issues, in addition to those that have already been referred to above, played a part in its election defeat.

Among the most publicised were:. According to opinion poll findings, all of these were issues that concerned many Australians and were likely to cause their votes to shift. As referred to above, the Labor Party s first preference vote As a consequence, preferences played an important role, for only half the seats were decided on first preferences. Although the Australian Green vote for the lower house was lower than the party hoped for, it played a significant role due to the relatively low vote achieved by the Labor Party.

Across the nation, In seats such as Richmond NSW , Leichhardt Qld and Franklin Tas , it was the final parcel of preferences from the Greens that confirmed the Labor candidate s first preference lead enjoyed from the first count. In some seats, however, the Labor candidate was trailing the Coalition candidate after the penultimate count, and it was Green preferences that clinched the seat finally for the Rudd team. In Bass, Labor s Jodie Campbell saw her party s first preference share fall by two per cent to Ultimately, Although Labor would have won the national election without such a generous allocation of Green preferences, the fact that they received them made their final seat tally healthier than it probably would otherwise have been.

A final note on regional attitudes may be relevant to this result. There are elections when a state seems to have produced a result that might have been affected by local matters Labor s dismal performance in Tasmania in the election is a well-known example. We can still wonder if the impressive Labor s largest vote in was in Western Australia, home of party leader, John Curtin.

Although it can be argued that the party had performed so poorly in the state in that this was simply a catch-up effort, might it also have been helped by some voters reaction to having a Queenslander as a party leader and hence, a possible Prime Minister?

Such a possibility is unlikely to be a factor in the two largest states, but in the four others, who knows what local pride might do to some voters preferences? Provisional votes generally are believed to favour Labor candidates over their opponents. In rejected provisional votes outnumbered the final margin of votes in the seats of Bowman, Dickson, Herbert and McEwen. A case can be made that the marked increase in the proportion of provisional votes that were removed from the count helped save the seats of the Coalition members who held these seats.

Two possible alterations to the Commonwealth Electoral Act may well be soon on the Parliament s schedule:. As soon as one election result is known, analysts political, media, academic begin wondering about the election that is to follow.

Although the Rudd Labor Government has a healthy majority in the House of Representatives, its vote margin over the Coalition parties is not large. Its opponents might see more of an opportunity to turn around the result at the first opportunity than observers currently believe is likely. All five have seen a fall in their two-party preferred vote:.

The Age , The Rudd Revolution. The story of Election 07, charting Labor's long march and the end of the Howard era , 27 November MacCallum, Mungo, Poll Dancing. The Story of the Election , Black, Melbourne, Saville, Margot, The Battle for Bennelong. Williams, Paul D. This, and other estimates, is based on two-party preferred votes in the Commonwealth election. Federation seats are those whose names have been in use since the first Commonwealth elections.

With the disappearance of Gwydir, there are now just 38 of the original 63 names still in use. Andren resigned Calare on 17 October He died on 3 November. Queensland s tally of House of Representatives seats rose from 24 to 29 in the period A 30th seat is likely to be added during the 42nd Parliament. This includes Parramatta, held by the ALP. Constitution, s. Menzies Campbell, It needs to be fixed , Guardian , 8 October Tony Wright, A man among the men , Age , 18 October David Charnock, Plus a change?

Paul D. Misha Schubert, Leadership in twilight zone , Age , 1 December Labor has all but conceded the next election , editorial, West Australian , 5 December Mungo MacCallum, Poll Dancing. The Story of the Election , Black, Melbourne, , p.

How to win the election , Quarterly Essay , 25, , pp. That is where an issue is raised that Labor feels obliged to support, even though it drives a wedge between the party and a significant part of its electoral support. Carbon reality check , editorial, Australian , 27 February Paul Kelly, No room for a wedge , Australian , 3 November Eden-Monaro had been won by the election-winning party in all elections since Michelle Grattan, Hockey s job vow is hard to take seriously , Age , 6 November See, for example, Liberal advertisement, Herald Sun , 22 November Tony Wright, All that s left now is the smell of mothballs , Age , 13 November Howard almost out of time , editorial, Weekend Australian , 17 18 November ; Determined Rudd is on message , editorial, Australian , 21 November Determined Rudd , Australian , op.

Howard gets back into the fight , Australian , 18 September Dennis Shanahan, It s time for him to take no chances , Australian , 22 November Brad Norington, Print warriors turning on themselves , Australian , 24 October Matthew Franklin, Rudd grabs air supremacy , Australian , 25 October Internet not yet a force for pollies , op. Margot Saville, The Battle for Bennelong. Dean Jaensch, Post-election analysis uncovers new truths , Advertiser , 23 January In the Labor vote was unusually low due to the nomination for the Greens of prominent Iraq war opponent, Andrew Wilkie.

Tough losing to an out-of-towner , Herald Sun, 26 November Nicholas Stuart, What Goes Up. Behind the election , Scribe Publications, Melbourne, , Prologue. To the south of the capital, Forde was also lost, but in this case, referred to above, there were different circumstances, including the retirement of the sitting member. Both results were voided, causing by-elections to be held, with Kerby and Blackwood both being defeated.

Bennett, Newman and Kopras, Commonwealth Election , op. Prime Minister. Elect one get one free , cartoon, Daily Telegraph , 14 September Paul Kelly, The defeat , op. Williams, op. Tim Colebatch, Landslide marks election where regional vote-buying never mattered less , Age , 1 December Michelle Grattan, The rise then come in spinner , Age , 8 November Judith Brett, Exit Right.

Research Paper Index Research Paper no. It is written as: a journal of record a discussion of the election campaign and a discussion of the election outcome. Appendices give: the election timetable names of the departing Members of the House of Representatives and Senators details of the new members of each house and details of the number of women in the two chambers, including comparisons with the previous three parliaments. Tables contain: national, state and regional vote summaries details concerning electoral divisions two-party preferred figures and the party strengths in the two houses of the Commonwealth Parliament.

Two appendices complete this section of the research paper. The election begins The House of Representatives the battle for government The Challengers Beazley is dropped A new type of Labor campaign The incumbents The Government s claim to be re-elected Coalition negativism Had the campaign been called earlier The diminution of the significance of policy The media and the election A perplexed media narrowing the gap Playing the media game differently The use of new media The House of Representatives result States and Territories Local contests The Senate in whose hands?

Part One is: a journal of record a discussion of the election campaign and a discussion of the election outcome. Part Two comprises a comprehensive set of statistics. These include vote summaries electoral division details two-party preferred figures and the party strengths in the new Parliament. Changes to the Commonwealth Electoral Act Several changes had been made to electoral legislation since the previous election. When would it be? As he explained, from his perspective there was a practical need to make many announcements before the election announcement: If I announce something now and the election is held X number of weeks after I ve made the announcement, the bureaucracy can implement that decision because it s not been made during the caretaker period.

By contrast, when stating that Australians needed to know the values for which Labor stood, Rudd emphasised that socialism isn t one of them : We believe radically in equality of opportunity, that is that every kid from every working family has a decent start in life. To make it quite clear where he stood, personally, Rudd also asserted: I am not a socialist. Labor s me-tooism and avoidance of the wedge When asked, Australian electors will often express frustration at the negativism of election battles and especially the apparent inability of the two major parties to agree on any issue.

Paul Kelly summed up the tactic: Me-tooism is about tactical decisions and strategic redesign that goes to party identity. The incumbents The Government s claim to be re-elected Essentially, the Howard Government based its campaign on four factors: It made much of its safe hands in regard to the economy and national security , asking voters whether it was worth risking a booming economy and the high international regard that were the consequence of 11 years of outstanding leadership.

A key assumption behind this aspect of the Coalition s campaign was that voters do not turn away from a government when the economy is doing well. Party strategists put a great reliance on the fact that polls continually put the Coalition ahead of Labor as the best economic managers. Liberal backbencher Don Randall warned that if people returned a Labor government, they will lose their houses.

People are betting their houses at this election. Although there were some Liberals who wondered if Howard should have resigned in favour of Treasurer Costello in see below , many more in his party considered him central to the Liberals chances, citing his outstanding record in office since the Coalition came to power in March Randall summed up such views: Howard is by far and away the best prime minister Australia has had in history.

Many Liberals pointed to the absence, as they saw it, of any sound reason for the voters to throw over this experience. Abbott, for instance, described the Howard Government as possessing, the best leadership team that Australia has ever had. The election seemed to produce a marked increase in this type of campaigning that had been a fundamental part of the Coalition s campaign. The Eden-Monaro list included a traffic strategy for Queanbeyan, funds for a Cooma skate park and refurbishment of its swimming pool, overhaul of Braidwood s sewerage system, help for autistic children, funding for a charity working with the socially isolated, assistance to a local timber mill, improvement of camping facilities for Bungendore Showground, upgrading of roads in the Tumut area and the restoration of environmental flows in the Snowy River.

There was confidence among many Liberals that such gifts to local communities would aid the party, as they were believed to have done in previous elections. The possible undermining of the federal system of government was a matter for some future time. Coalition negativism It is a commonplace that a party s tactics in an election campaign need to be a blend of positive and negative messages.

The union threat The second threat that received much publicity was that of the rampant unionism that was likely to hit the country if the restraining hand of the Coalition Government were removed. The pamphlet warned: Our youth have never experienced a socialist government with its continuous barrage of laws, rules and regulations, the never-ending interference of government and unions in our lives and the soul-destroying unemployment as our living standard drops It is difficult to know how this approach affected voters perceptions of the Labor Party, but one journalist lampooned the Coalition s effort, noting that Howard s men were warning, that socialists and unionists are coming, pikes raised, torches aflame.

Inevitably, Labor would be held to ransom so as to implement what Minchin described as the Greens dangerous policy agenda : This is the first time in Australian history that a radical left-wing party like the Greens have been poised to gain such an unprecedented level of power in the Senate.

An obsession with Gillard? Had the campaign been called earlier In a political system which grants the Prime Minister the power to nominate election day, the incumbent is expected to use this power to his or her party s advantage. The diminution of the significance of policy The Commonwealth election was therefore one in which policy matters, and the differences between the parties, seemed to play a lesser role than is often the case.

The media and the election Polls indicate changing trends media forecasts vary Tiffin predicted accurately that many in the media would base their coverage of the contest on the assumption that the early gap between the parties would narrow, was narrowing, and finally, had closed, even if Labor were to remain in a position to win a comfortable victory.

Tiffin claimed that this was partly because the media have an interest in building the sense of an exciting contest, partly because the current polls are so deviant from recent patterns that many believe they must narrow perhaps partly reflecting wishful thinking by some in the media. The importance of poll results was suggested by Dennis Shanahan: The Coalition has fought back after John Howard s dramatic undertaking to retire as prime minister during the next term and can now make a fight of the election Labor still has a clear election-winning lead on a two-party preferred basis of 55 per cent to the Coalition s 45, and Kevin Rudd is well clear of Mr Howard as preferred prime minister.

The picture was not completely clear, however, with the parties polling quite differently on a range of issues, as Dennis Shanahan further noted: The Coalition has stretched its commanding lead over Labor on the key vote-changing issues of the economy and national security. Two days before polling day commentators noted that Labor had worked successfully on many policy issues: months of strict discipline and superb political tactics have diverted and frustrated the Coalition.

Brad Norington, of the Australian , observed: What appears to be upsetting the commentators is that the polls have not followed their past course over the last nine months before the election by shifting in the Coalition s favour. A week before polling day he complained that: The strategy is to avoid as many as possible of the longer, considered interviews that he can Compare that to [John] Howard's approach; he will always do those interviews.

McArthur wrote to the Australian Electoral Commission to complain that there was no official authorisation for what was written, as required by electoral law: The Internet can provide positive opportunities for direct political communication between the public and their representatives but site operators must exercise a duty of care. It lost two seats, both in Western Australia. Despite a first preference gain of 5.

It was Labor s first vote above 40 per cent in four elections. In winning, Labor had achieved the wall-to-wall Labor governments referred to earlier, for the first time. In the days before the two territories had gained self-government, between May and June the Liberal and Country Parties shared in different governments in all six states and at the Commonwealth level.

The Liberal Party s total of 55 seats was 19 less than it won in , with its first preference vote of Overall, though, the vote was just below its average vote of In only two elections since have the Liberals topped 40 per cent , With a vote of 5.

The last four elections have seen their vote positioned in the narrow range of 5. The Prime Minister s loss of his seat was the second occasion when such an event has occurred. Corangamite Vic Many electorates can change over time, so that they become safer or more marginal for a particular party as in the case of Bennelong. The Senate in whose hands? The setting After the election, the Coalition s 39 Senate seats gave it control over the upper house, the first time this had been achieved since Senate results The major parties won 18 Senate seats each which meant that the Coalition will lose control of the upper house after 1 July Some factors in the election outcome Leadership John Howard and Peter Costello Speculation about the Liberal leadership was an awkward burden that the Coalition Government carried through most of the final Howard term.

Kevin Rudd The replacement of Kim Beazley with a relatively unknown leader, seemed to be the event that pushed Labor into the winning position that it held until polling day. The economy Interest rates There are two economies that can be relevant to election outcomes. Grattan went on to wonder whether: this may be one election too many for the Government line that Coalition policies would always keep rates lower than Labor policies. The legislation had been the result of a prime ministerial rush of blood according to one critical journalist: when Howard attacked overtime, penalty rates and shift allowances, he turned IR from an economic issue into a cultural issue.

Among the most publicised were: the presence of troops supporting the anti-terrorist battle in Iraq and Afghanistan and the loss of two soldiers in action in the latter the case of the Guantanamo Bay detainee, David Hicks, brought home prior to the election in an effort to defuse the issue of his treatment by US officials claims of corruption in the Australian Wheat Board, of which the Government apparently had no knowledge the military-style intervention into certain Northern Territory indigenous communities by the Commonwealth Government the apparent reluctance of the Government and in particular Prime Minister Howard to accept the need to confront the issue of climate change, and the treatment of Indian doctor, Mohamed Haneef, accused of having links with British bomb plots.

The Green vote As referred to above, the Labor Party s first preference vote The introduction of the group voting ticket at the election saw the number of informal votes drop dramatically. Prime Minister John Howard lost his own seat of Bennelong , in the Sydney area, to Labor candidate and former journalist Maxine McKew , becoming the second sitting prime minister, and the third party leader, since Federation to be defeated in his own electorate.

Howard had held the seat since , and it had been in Liberal hands ever since its creation in However, successive redistributions, along with demographic change, had made the once safe Liberal seat much friendlier to Labor; much of the area was represented by Labor at the state level. Howard's two-party majority was four percent, putting it right on the edge of seats that Labor would likely take in the event it won. Late on election night, when conceding Labor had won government, Howard also acknowledged the likelihood he had lost Bennelong to McKew, though he and McKew agreed the margin was "very tight".

On 29 November, Rudd named McKew as a parliamentary secretary assistant minister to be appointed on 3 December, [20] and on 1 December, McKew claimed victory. Howard lost on the 14th count due to a large flow of Green preferences to McKew. This swing was within the redistributed boundaries after the election. Given John Howard's personal defeat, the Liberal Party began the process of choosing a new leader.

The morning after the election, Peter Costello , the Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party, and long regarded as Howard's natural successor, stated that he would not run for Liberal leadership. Brendan Nelson was elected leader by 45 votes to 42, and Julie Bishop was elected deputy leader. A new two party preferred record was also set, at 63 to 37 per cent Labor's way. Post-election, ALP secretary Tim Gartrell commented on pre-election campaign billboard ads featuring a picture of John Howard stating " Working families in Australia have never been better off", which looked like Liberal Party advertisements, were actually paid for by the Labor Party.

The Lyne by-election resulted in independent Rob Oakeshott being elected, reducing the total number of Coalition seats to Bradfield and Higgins by-elections were held in December Joyce stated that his party would no longer necessarily vote with their Liberal counterparts in the upper house. The following table indicates seats that changed hands from one party to another at this election. As a result, it includes the newly created electorate of Flynn , and the existing Parramatta , which was retained by Labor despite becoming a notional Liberal seat due to boundary changes.

The table does not include Gwydir , which was abolished in the redistribution; Macquarie , which was reclassified from safe Liberal to marginal Labor and was subsequently won by Labor; or Calare , the seat of Independent MP Peter Andren , which was reclassified as a National seat by the redistribution and was won by the National Party.

Under the provisions of the Constitution , the current House of Representatives may continue for a maximum of three years from the first meeting of the House after the previous federal election. The first meeting of the 41st Parliament after the election was on 16 November , hence the parliament would have expired on 15 November had it not been dissolved earlier. There must be a minimum of 33 days and a maximum of 68 days between the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the day of the election.

The prime minister of the day chooses the election date and requests the governor-general to dissolve the House and issue the writs for the election. On 14 October, John Howard gained the agreement of the governor-general, Major-General Michael Jeffery , to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election for the House and half the Senate on 24 November During the last term of parliament before the election, the deadline for new voter enrolment was brought forward from 7 working days after the issue of the writ to the same day.

When the election was announced, the writ was not issued the next day, but on the following Wednesday. This kept the roll open for three days, during which 77, enrolment additions were processed. On 14 October, Howard announced a 24 November election. The Coalition had been trailing Labor in the polls since , and most pundits predicted that Howard would not be re-elected.

ABC Online election analyst Antony Green noted the Coalition's numbers were similar to what Labor had polled before losing power in His theme concentrated on leadership, stating that the nation "does not need new leadership, it does not need old leadership. It needs the right leadership" He said his government would strive to achieve full employment, which he argued was less likely under Kevin Rudd.

He argued that the government had 'lost touch' with the electorate, and that the Labor Party was best suited to deal with challenges that lie ahead. A Galaxy poll showed a Labor per cent Coalition two-party-preferred result, with a 2 per cent gap on primaries, [50] and ACNielsen polling reported a 2 per cent swing to the Coalition, reducing Labor's lead to 54— Rudd dropped 5 per cent as preferred prime minister.

A Newspoll sampling 1, voters taken over the weekend prior to the leaders' debate reported a swing to Labor, increasing their two-party-preferred lead to 58 per cent, a rise of 2 points. Labor's primary vote increased 3 points to 51 per cent, and the Liberals decreased by 2 points to 34 per cent.

Rudd extended his lead by 2 points to 50 per cent, with Howard down by 2 points to 37 per cent. The Liberals slogan, "go for growth" was launched after announcing the largest tax cut in Australian history. During the latter part of the week union influence over the ALP was questioned after the launch of the Liberal party's first campaign ads.

Labor responded with commercials attacking the Liberals' campaign as 'smears', which was disputed by John Howard. One of the Liberal Party election commercials was corrected after it incorrectly said Wayne Swan and Craig Emerson had previously been union officials.

Rudd had called for a minimum of three debates between himself and Howard, while Howard, who had been rated poorly by studio audiences at past leadership debates, pressed for a single debate. A total of 2. The last election debate in was watched by 1. The debate audience was , with the Coalition and Labor each selecting Kevin Rudd argued that the Liberal Party was being influenced by the H. Nicholls Society to make further reforms to industrial relations, citing Nick Minchin 's speech at the Society's conference where he told the audience that the Coalition "knew its reform to WorkChoices were not popular but the process of change must continue", [60] and that "there is still a long way to go Rudd said that Howard had "no plan for the future" on tackling climate change.

Howard said that a Coalition government would establish a climate change fund after , which would be financed by carbon offsets. The Nine Network, which broadcast the debate as an extended edition of 60 Minutes , used ' the Worm ' in its broadcast despite prior objections from the Liberal Party and action from the National Press Club to cease its video feed. As a result, the Nine Network's feed was cut part way into the broadcast, which Nine then replaced with Sky News's coverage.

Both sides, however, claimed victory. Steps were taken to ensure equal numbers so as not to taint the Worm. At one point, Peter Costello was asked to cease interjecting. Figures released on the Tuesday, showed a stronger than expected underlying rate of inflation of 3 per cent. Controversy arose over the Coalition's climate change policy, with The Financial Review citing "government sources" who claimed Turnbull told Cabinet six weeks ago it should sign the Kyoto Protocol.

Neither Howard nor Turnbull denied the story. The story said that "internal critics" are claiming Turnbull is "selfishly positioning himself for a Coalition defeat" and a "possible post-poll leadership battle with Treasurer Peter Costello".

The story led to claims of major splits in Cabinet. Labor also suffered from mixed messages. Kevin Rudd was compelled to clarify Labor policy on climate change after an interview in which Peter Garrett suggested Labor would sign up to the post-Kyoto agreement at even if carbon-emitting developing countries did not. Rudd's comments, which he described as having "always been [Labor's] position", saw Labor's policy move closer to Liberal policy, insofar as Labor would ratify the agreement only after persuading all major carbon emitters, developing and developed, to ratify.

John Howard said the Coalition would not match Labor's promise of 20 per cent renewable energy target. Howard claimed Labor's policy "imposes too many additional costs to industry". Peter Garrett replied that lack of government action has cost jobs.

The Coalition announced a promise to open 50 new emergency medical centres on Australia if re-elected. Adding to the campaign trend of both major parties criticising their opponent for plagiarism and "me-tooism", [ citation needed ] Labor responded that the government had copied its policy.

Peter Garrett was criticised by the Coalition when radio announcer Steve Price revealed Garrett had said to TV presenter Richard Wilkins that, "once we get in we'll just change it all" in reference to copying Coalition policies. Garrett said the comment was made during a "short, jocular and casual" conversation and Wilkins supported Garrett's response, saying that it was a "light-hearted throwaway line".

Tim Costello , director of World Vision Australia and Peter Costello's brother, criticised Australia's ranking of 19th out of 22 OECD countries for provision of overseas aid, and for government unwillingness to increase its policy of 0. Costello focused mainly on the government's past record, advocating the need for Australia to build into the future, while Swan said Labor were interested in "investing in people". Abbott's character and ministerial capacity were questioned by Roxon for his comments about terminally ill asbestos campaigner Bernie Banton and for arriving 35 minutes late to debate.

At the end of the debate, Roxon suggested to Abbott that he "could have arrived on time" if he had "really wanted to", to which Abbott replied "bullshit". On 10 November, the Australian Democrats held their campaign launch in Melbourne under the banner of Bring Back Balance , a reference to their central campaign theme of preventing the government from regaining absolute control of the Senate.

The Reserve Bank of Australia adjusted interest rates upwards by another 0. Hockey argued that Labor's policy to drop Workchoices was Australia's biggest threat to inflation. Garrett criticised the government's record on climate change to which Turnbull responded that Garrett's current claims betray his previous career as a political activist. It accused the Howard Government of being "irresponsible". In addition to previous education funding announcements, Rudd promised Labor would provide an additional 65, apprenticeships, migrate all schools to new high speed broadband, and provide all year 9—12 students with access to their own computer.

A doubling of the number of undergraduate and postgraduate scholarships available at a tertiary level was announced, and the party re-iterating its view on climate change and WorkChoices. The Labor Party released footage on Thursday 15 November to Lateline, showing Tony Abbott addressing a room of people, stating "I accept that certain protections, in inverted commas, are not what they were" in reference to WorkChoices legislation.

Referring to award structures, Abbott said in the same footage: "I accept that that has largely gone. I accept that. Newspoll stated Labor's two-party-preferred level was down one point to 54 per cent. Former Liberal Party campaign director Lynton Crosby said that the Coalition was "closing in on Labor" in the final week and could "still win a tight election" on a campaign of defending marginal seats, declaring a win still possible on On 20 November, John Howard defended the government's advertising spending in the months prior to the campaign, paid for with public money.

Howard was criticised for not revealing documents written by his department about further changes to industrial relations laws in addition to WorkChoices legislation. In response, the government said the proposals had been cancelled, and that WorkChoices would not be expanded upon. The Seven Network failed in attempt to access the documents under Freedom of Information.

Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce said that the possibility of his crossing the floor to support Labor's amendments to WorkChoices remained open, and that he would judge all legislation on its merits, for which he was criticised by Nationals leader Mark Vaile. On 21 November, three days before the election, fake pamphlets were distributed in the electorate of Lindsay , which purported to be from an Islamic group.

The group was non-existent and the pamphlets thanked the Labor Party for supporting the Bali bombers and encouraged people to vote Labor. Citing a clause of the Constitution that states parliamentarians are not permitted to hold an "office of profit under the crown", government frontbencher Andrew Robb said that up to 13 Labor candidates standing in the election may be ineligible for nomination.

According to Robb, a "search of public records" indicated that the 13 candidates may have still been employed by government agencies, boards or offices, and that the Liberal Party may consider legal challenges to their election. According to Labor Senator Penny Wong , all Labor's candidates were eligible to stand, and that the Liberals had obtained the information from outdated websites. Network Ten and SBS Television included brief updates and news bulletins through the night, but not to the other networks' extent.

Sky News offered extensive coverage on Pay TV. Roy Morgan polling in June reported WorkChoices was a reason for Labor party support, and a fear of union dominance and support for Coalition economic management policy as the biggest reasons behind the Coalition vote. A Newspoll released in June reported health and Medicare were the most important issue for voters; 83 per cent of respondents rated it "very important". Other key issues included education 79 per cent , the economy 67 per cent , the environment 60 per cent and national security 60 per cent.

Taxation and interest rates, key issues in previous campaigns, were rated very important by 54 per cent and 51 per cent respectively. Immigration, a key issue in , scored 43 per cent. The poll showed that voters considered Labor marginally better-placed to handle health and education, and gave the government strong backing on the economy and national security.

Kevin Rudd promised Labor would introduce a greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 60 per cent by , ratify the Kyoto protocol and introduce a mandatory renewable energy target MRET of 20 per cent by The Howard government reiterated their position of not ratifying the Kyoto protocol, setting "voluntary aspirational emission reduction targets" and introducing a carbon emissions trading scheme by On 7 June in a speech promoting the government's handling of the economy, Treasurer Peter Costello recalled the learner driver slogan of the election : "This [the economy] is like a highly engineered racing car and I tell you what, I wouldn't be putting an L-plate driver in the cockpit at the moment".

Labor used the news to argue that the Coalition could not be trusted to keep interest rates low, while Costello argued that interest rates would be higher under Labor. During October Immigration Minister Kevin Andrews's decision to cut Australia's refugee intake and expressing public concern about Sudanese migrants was branded as racist. She said: "It has been a long time since I have heard such a pure form of racism out of the mouth of any Australian politician.

Andrews was accused of helping to fuel assaults of Sudanese. During the controversy one criticism was that Andrews justified his decision based on "concerns raised by the community", however no official report or inquest has been tendered, leading to the conclusion that any 'concerns' were both unofficial, undocumented and most probably belonging to a racially intolerant minority.

The Howard government had before used the race card in an election year to distract the voters from its other failures. This was most significant in the election with the infamous Tampa affair, in which the government was badly trailing in the polls before vilifying middle-eastern "boat people". The strategy worked for the government by exploiting the underlying racist elements of Australian society.

Andrews defended the system of having refugee quotas against the opinion expressed that intakes of refugees should be variated on the basis of global needs. Rudd advocated four-year fixed terms for federal parliaments if elected. Howard supported four-year terms but opposed fixed election dates. Any change would require approval by referendum.

On several key questions, Labor increased its lead after Rudd assumed the Labor leadership from Kim Beazley , at which point Rudd also assumed the lead as preferred prime minister. While Labor was ahead in opinion polling, Howard had led Beazley on this question by a wide margin. The new industrial relations program, Carr said, angered the "Howard battlers" — the traditional Labor voters who had supported Howard for most of the last 11 years — because they saw it as a direct attack on their livelihood.

ACNielsen polling in March had Rudd's personal approval rating at 67 per cent, which made him the most popular opposition leader in the poll's year history, [] with Newspoll News Limited 2PP polling the highest in its history. The largest 2PP election result for the ALP in its history was at the election on an estimate of A weighted collaboration of all polling since Rudd assumed the ALP leadership shows an average Labor 2PP figure of 57 per cent compared with the Coalition's 43 per cent, [] and Rudd's consistent outpolling of Howard as preferred prime minister, something not achieved under previous leaders Mark Latham , Kim Beazley or Simon Crean.

By the time the writs were issued, the Coalition was well behind Labor in opinion polling, which election analyst Antony Green believed to show Labor winning government "in a canter". According to Green, this was a nearly exact reversal of the run-up to the election. The Coalition was running ahead of Labor in two-party opinion polling for much of and , however the mantle of preferred prime minister regularly switched between Howard and Paul Keating. Possums Pollytics, an anonymous weblog, stated that due to the uneven nature of the swings, where safe Liberal seats were swinging up to Polling consistently showed that the economy and national security were the Coalition's strong areas.

In August an Ipsos poll showed 39 per cent of voters thought Labor was a better economic manager, compared to 36 per cent for the Coalition, with 25 per cent undecided. The morning of the election announcement, a special Sun-Herald Taverner survey of people across New South Wales and Victoria had been released, indicating a Labor 2PP of 59 per cent, with the to year-old category voting at 72 per cent. Howard increased his Preferred PM rating up one per cent to 39 per cent, while Rudd increased his rating up one per cent to 48 per cent.

On the day after the election was called, Centrebet had odds of 1. Newspoll a week out from the election of 3, voters in 18 of the Coalition's most marginal seats revealed an ALP 54—46 Coalition 2PP, a swing to Labor of 6—9 per cent. A uniform swing would see 18—25 seats fall to Labor, The Australian said. Former Labor number-cruncher Graham Richardson , who news.

Peter Day, a journalist ex-The Australian , stated two days before the election that, if the Coalition were re-elected, it would be "the biggest polling embarrassment in any developed country since Truman beat Dewey in ". Sky News - Channel 7 -Auspoll exit polls on election day of 2, voters in the 31 most marginal seats suggested a 53 per cent two-party preferred figure to Labor, 53 per cent to Labor in Bennelong , and 58 per cent to Labor in Eden-Monaro.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Results by popular vote by state and territory. Main article: Results of the Australian federal election, House of Representatives. See also: Post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, and Members of the Australian House of Representatives, — Popular Vote Labor. Two Party Preferred Vote Labor.

Parliament Seats Labor. Main article: Results of the Australian federal election Senate. See also: Members. Main article: Candidates of the Australian federal election. Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 23 May Australia Votes ABC Online.

Archived from the original on 22 October Retrieved 25 November Sky News Australia. Retrieved 13 June Archived from the original on 25 November Australia Votes ". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on 21 July The Australian.

News Ltd. Archived from the original on 6 February Retrieved 17 March Archived from the original on 11 September Retrieved 16 March Coalition percentage total equals the sum of the joint ticket

MILOTIC BITCOINS

The Country Liberal Party vote fell by 2. In , the electorate of Bennelong was very different from when it was won by John Howard in On the one hand, redistributions over the years had gradually made it less safe for the Liberal Party. In the s, such well-to-do suburbs as Hunters Hill, Wollstonecraft and Crows Nest, were an integral part of the electorate, but over the years Bennelong s boundaries had been moved north and west to include voters far less supportive of the Prime Minister.

The 06 redistribution continued the shift, with psephologist Malcolm Mackerras suggesting as early as July that Howard might not be able to retain the electorate. Labor held 24 of these electorates. Today, of all Bennelong residents, 42 per cent have English as a second language. McKew campaigned hard for many months, and an indication of the pressure Howard was under was the regularity of his campaign appearances in the electorate. He even held a community forum to invite voters questions.

In the event, the result was close, but decisive. The Liberal vote fell by 4. The offices of a printing firm and a graphic artist were also entered. The MPs denied any wrongdoing but, unfortunately for the three men, the issue took quite a time to be settled. After a six-month investigation by the Australian Federal Police, it was announced in September that Hardgrave and Vasta were cleared of any suspicion in the matter. Several weeks later Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions announced that there was insufficient evidence for a reasonable chance of securing a conviction against Laming.

Irrespective of this, journalists speculated that these three seats might well be lost, with these events playing a significant part in such an outcome. Vasta The average first preference figure for the three was By contrast, the Liberal statewide first preference vote was With their party doing so poorly across Queensland, it is difficult to claim that the electorate allowances issue was a key factor in the defeat of these two MPs, particularly as Hardgrave had the extra burden of an unhelpful redistribution that had given him a narrow margin of less than three per cent.

In the southern Adelaide seat of Boothby, Labor nominated Nicole Cornes, Sunday Mail columnist, described in the press as glamorous , and wife of a South Australian football legend. Cornes was quoted as saying that she had voted for John Howard in the past , but that it was time for a change.

She also stated that when you read in the newspapers about what is going on in the world you start to form opinions. To Kevin Rudd, Cornes was South Australian through and through , as well as being bright and articulate. Unfortunately for Cornes and her party, she began to have campaign problems, many of her own making. The detail-challenged candidate confused Labor s industrial relations policy with WorkChoices, she refused an ABC interview because she was not prepared for anything heavy , and when questioned on her party s industrial relations policy responded: What is it that people don t get?

Is it specific policy details? We can all go to a website and do that. She received front-page coverage when she turned heads with her revealing dress worn to the farewell Government House dinner for the Governor and polls suggested that many female voters did not respond well to her. In addition, some Labor Party members were said to be unhappy with her preselection, due to her having attacked Labor values in her newspaper column.

As Cornes joint campaign manager noted, she was an easy target. Cornes did not win the seat, and Labor s first preference vote fell by 1. Boothby was the only South Australian seat where there was a drop in Labor s first preference vote.

Many electorates can change over time, so that they become safer or more marginal for a particular party as in the case of Bennelong. This can be brought about by redistribution of boundaries; it can also be affected by population changes within the existing boundaries. In the case of Corangamite, originally a wholly-rural seat held by conservative parties for all but five years since Federation, change came about largely as a consequence of the physical growth of Geelong, combined with the arrival of sea-changers on the Bellarine Peninsula.

The Liberal sitting member, Stewart McArthur, won Corangamite in , and in the five elections 96 averaged a first preference vote of In the elections of this fell to By the time of the election Corangamite was being described as a mortgage belt seat, ripe for plucking by the Labor Party, which signified its hopes by the announcement of a marked increase in proposed campaign spending in the electorate.

Despite McArthur criticising his challenger, Darren Cheeseman, as a Ballarat-residing union official rather than a local, Labor gained enough first preferences Cheeseman is the first ALP member for Corangamite since McArthur blamed the media for the result, claiming that it did not give Kevin Rudd the same harsh treatment it handed out to the Prime Minister.

In Victoria various Labor candidates lost pre-selection to prominent party newcomers. Unlike Sercombe and Corcoran, who publicly accepted their loss of pre-selection, O Connor attacked what he described as Labor s rampant branch-stacking, rorting of democratic process, illicit fund-raising, money laundering and grubby backyard deals and nominated as an independent candidate.

Labor s margin was 5. More concerning was the Liberal Party s use of these events to illustrate the danger of unions exerting undue influence over Labor. He received Labor retained Corio with ease, aided by 52 per cent of O Connor s preferences.

In , the Liberals Kay Elson won Forde, in a semi-rural area south of Brisbane, with a first preference vote of After having her vote increase in each following election to reach With the help of a redistribution, Elson had left her seat in good shape, for the ALP would need to achieve an All was apparently not well with Creighton s campaign efforts, for there were soon reports of local Liberals being so dismayed by their candidate that they were said to have abandoned her and to be focussing their efforts on assisting her Nationals opponent.

There were suggestions that this followed instructions from the Liberal Party s national headquarters. However, Creighton was unable to lever a Liberal win, with Labor scoring a large two-party preferred swing of In the 06 redistribution of NSW electorates there was some local unhappiness at various changes.

One was the Redistribution Committee s proposal to push Macquarie past its traditional Blue Mountains border so as to place west of the Great Dividing Range towns like Lithgow, Oberon and Bathurst into what had been a Blue Mountains seat. There also was dismay that the five historic Macquarie towns of Richmond, Windsor, Pitt Town, Wilberforce and Castlereagh were all being moved east into the seat of Greenway.

Objections to the proposed changes to Macquarie were not accepted by the Redistribution Committee. The outcome was that Macquarie seemed far less safe for its Liberal sitting member and Greenway much safer for its Liberal MP. The outcome in the two seats was as generally predicted. Despite a 5. In the previous election, Kerry Bartlett had won Macquarie with over 53 per cent of first preferences. In , the Liberal first preference vote in Bartlett s redistributed electorate rose by 4.

Clearly, the redistribution had altered the political makeup of these two electorates. A few days before the election it was revealed that the husband of the retiring Liberal MP for Lindsay NSW , Jackie Kelly, together with the husband of the new Liberal candidate, had distributed a document purporting to come from a fictitious body, the Islamic Australia Foundation.

The document asked recipients to vote ALP and thanked Labor for its support to forgive our Muslim brothers who have been unjustly sentenced to death for the Bali bombing. It also thanked the party for its support over the building of a controversial mosque in the area. The press was critical of these events that later became subject to court proceedings. Lindsay duly was lost to Labor which enjoyed a first preference swing of This may have been partly due to the retirement of the popular sitting member, Jackie Kelly, combined with the fact that the electorate was vulnerable due to the high level of exposure of many of its residents to financial stress.

It was a remarkable instance of a party losing momentary control over a local campaign in a way that may have sealed the defeat of its candidate. He had retained the seat in with a In despite Brough being opposed by Jon Sullivan, a Queensland MLA between and , the media consensus was that the sitting member s chances of re-election were good.

Brough clearly was not so certain, for there was speculation that he might seek to push Peter Slipper out of the nearby electorate of Fairfax. In the event, Brough s public standing seemed to be irrelevant to the result, for he lost Longman after a first preference drop of 7. However, Longman was just one of a number of Liberal seats in the immediate north and west of Brisbane which were held by seemingly-competent sitting members and in which the party vote fell quite substantially.

The result in McEwen fluctuated during the counting. After leading on first preferences by 5. Bailey s party challenged the result and after a recount she was confirmed as the winner by 12 votes. However, Labor s national secretary claimed that the Australian Electoral Commission had wrongly excluded votes that the Labor Party had believed to be valid. On 29 January it was announced that the defeated Labor candidate, Rob Mitchell, had filed a petition with the High Court as the Court of Disputed Returns, challenging the final result.

The plaintiff was concerned with the way in which ballot papers had been treated during the count. Crennan noted the difficult matter in which neither the plaintive nor the defendant might have access to the ballot papers that were in dispute. At the time of writing the Federal Court of Australia has set down 1 May as the day for a directions hearing of the matter.

In , Malcolm Turnbull won Liberal pre-selection for Wentworth from the sitting member, Peter King, who then contested the election as an independent. Turnbull took the seat with a first preference vote of The 06 NSW redistribution seemed to have made the seat much more marginal than it had been, giving Turnbull a margin prior to the election of barely 2. In , the sitting member had ten opponents, including an apparently stronger Labor opponent in George Newhouse, Mayor of Waverley, a prominent member of the local Jewish community.

The contest was confused by a number of potentially-important factors. Wentworth was said to have a strong environmental community and the vocal Australian Green campaign was supported by prominent businessman turned environmentalist, Geoff Cousins. The major party candidates were both aware of the relatively large gay community in the electorate, many of whom had been residents in the adjacent seat of Sydney prior to the redistribution.

Newhouse was opposed by his former partner, who nominated as an independent, but more significantly, there were suggestions that he had not resigned from several government appointments at the time of his nomination as a candidate. His nomination was therefore possibly invalid.

Newhouse handled questions on the issue very awkwardly and without much conviction. In the end, despite a fall in the Liberal vote across the nation, Turnbull won on first preferences with After the election, the Coalition s 39 Senate seats gave it control over the upper house, the first time this had been achieved since However, the nett loss of a single seat in would see this relinquished.

As the election drew closer, polls suggested that a fall in support for the Coalition, combined with the strong likelihood that in Tasmania, at least, Labor and the Greens would win four of that state s seats, would strip control from the Coalition. By contrast, Labor had no realistic chance of gaining control of the Senate.

If it were to win government, the best Senate result that it could achieve was three seats from each state and one from each territory. The party would not achieve the statewide vote of Consequently, the best that an incoming Labor Government could hope for was to hold 34 seats in the post July Senate five short of an absolute majority.

Even this seemed unlikely, however, for polls suggested that the party might have difficulty in winning three seats in Western Australia. There is a certain predictability to Senate contests, but in several developments made the contest and outcome more interesting than usual. In South Australia , the unexpected nomination of poker machine opponent, Nick Xenophon, produced speculation about a likely increase in the minor party vote in that state.

Xenophon had won a Legislative Council seat in and had easily been re-elected in on a With the Australian Greens optimistic of winning a seat, the Australian Democrats clinging on to their Senate membership in the state that had been kindest to them and Family First hopeful of performing well, it seemed that the battle for each of the major parties would be to manage to win a third seat. By contrast, the Australian Greens were confident that their ticket, headed by Richard di Natale, twice narrowly beaten for a Legislative Assembly seat, would be successful.

It was felt that the Greens statewide vote of ten per cent in the state election would be the base upon which the state s first Green senator would be elected. However, it seemed unlikely that both the Australian Democrats and the Greens would win a seat. In Family First had surprised by winning its only Senate seat in Victoria and the party was keen to repeat the feat. Although this seemed improbable, Family First preferences might be very important in the final result.

In Queensland , the Coalition had unexpectedly won four seats in , thanks to the strong effort of the separate Liberal ticket. At the same time, the Greens optimism about winning the party s first Queensland Senate seat was strong. A possible wild card was the nomination of former One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson as leader of Pauline s United Australia Party , the official abbreviation of which Pauline.

The position in the ACT was also of great interest. Territory senators take up their seats immediately the Parliament resumes after an election, unlike state senators whose terms begin on 1 July following the election. Advertisements calling on voters to Save Our Senate began to appear in Canberra.

Greens leader Bob Brown, Democrats leader Lyn Allison and ACT Labor senator Kate Lundy called on voters to support one of their candidates in order to remove control of the upper house from the Coalition from the beginning of the new parliament: it s time to restore the balance in our house of review.

This unusual joint call was aided by the grassroots political movement GetUp, which apparently paid for the advertisements. She had led a Green Senate ticket in , which gained The major parties won 18 Senate seats each which meant that the Coalition will lose control of the upper house after 1 July Despite the large number of minor party candidates, and the success of four of these in winning seats, the major party share of the vote Its performance was only moderate, however, for in each of Western Australia and South Australia it failed to win three seats.

The Coalition vote of It failed to win three seats in South Australia and Tasmania. The Australian Greens won their first seat in South Australia and that, together with a seat won in each of Western Australia and Tasmania, gave the party five seats in the new Senate, it highest-ever figure. Victoria and Queensland are the states yet to send a Green to the national upper house.

Nick Xenophon won a South Australian seat. He and Bob Brown, both won their seats on the first count, a relatively unusual outcome for minor party candidates. The failure of the Labor and Liberal Parties each to win a third seat in South Australia was only the second time that both major teams have failed to win a third seat in a particular state; the first occasion had been in Queensland in Since the ACT and the Northern Territory gained two senators in , the Labor and major non-Labor party have always shared each territory s two seats.

The ACT Greens gained a respectable The Australian Democrat national vote was 1. No candidate was elected. As no party member had been elected in , this means that the party will have no presence in the parliament for the first time since gaining two Senate places in the election. After the new Senate members have taken their seats on 1 July , the Coalition parties will have 37 seats, Labor will have 32, the Australian Greens tally will be five, Family First will have one and there will be one independent.

The Government will therefore need the support of all non-Coalition senators to be certain of the passage of legislation. Speculation about the Liberal leadership was an awkward burden that the Coalition Government carried through most of the final Howard term. Journalists asked the Prime Minister many times about his future, to which he would respond along the lines of: I will remain leader of the Liberal Party as long as my party wants me to and it s in the party s best interests that I do so.

Costello was said to have agreed that he would not contest the leadership at that time were Howard to nominate once more, but was said to have been guaranteed a chance to lead the Liberals when the older man retired halfway through his second term. With opinion polls in mid-July indicating a marked drop in the Government s standing, the press reported that Howard had confronted his Cabinet colleagues with the question, Is it me?

Two months later the public learned of soundings having been taken by the Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer, in September , on the question of whether or not Howard should remain in office. When Downer reported that a majority of Cabinet preferred that he step aside for Costello, the Prime Minister chose to remain, reportedly after discussions with his family. On 12 September, Howard told radio 2GB that at a Liberal party meeting there had been absolutely no evidence of any desire on the part of the party for any change in the current leadership team.

But well into my term, I would come to the conclusion that it would be in the best interests of everybody if I retired, and in those circumstances, I would expect Peter to take over, but that would be a matter for the Party. Now, that is the honest truth, and I think most of your viewers believe it would be the case.

With Howard thus remaining in his position for the election, there was now much more of an effort made by the Liberal Party to present a picture of a united leadership team. When the Party s website altered its front page by replacing a photograph of Howard with one of Howard and Costello, it caused one journalist to speak of there being a genuine two-faced Liberal leader, the Howard-Costello model.

Elect one get one free. Many in the Coalition were dismayed when the eye-catching headline, Pass baton to Costello , headed an Australian piece by Janet Albrechtsen, one of the most significant of Howard-supporting journalists. The failure of the Prime Minister to leave office before the election has been described by his successor as a powerful factor in the Coalition s defeat: Eleven-and-a-half years in the modern era is an eternity to the everyday Australian.

What might have been the electoral situation had Costello become Liberal Party leader and hence, Prime Minister? The Costello case may have been the same. However, many of his colleagues were opposed to such a leadership change, primarily it seems, because they feared for their seats. In a Newspoll conducted in April , Costello had barely headed Kim Beazley when respondents were asked who would make the better Prime Minister.

In , about one-third of respondents claimed they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition were Costello to replace Howard as Prime Minister. It was findings such as these that Liberal MPs who supported the Prime Minister were said to have used when opposing leadership change within the party.

According to such partisans, it seemed clear that the Government s best chance of re-election rested with Howard. There were at least two factors that could suggest that a change of leadership might have lessened the leadership problem for the Government. Costello was recognised favourably for his work as Treasurer and were he to have become Prime Minister, his standing in the polls would probably have improved at least in the short term.

This is because a person in the job is likely to produce more favourable responses than if he is not. Kevin Rudd s perceived suitability to serve as Leader of the Opposition jumped immediately he replaced Beazley, as had Mark Latham s. The same might well have occurred for Costello. Alexander Downer appeared to concede this point when he was quoted as saying that appointment of the Treasurer to the Prime Ministership, must at least give us chance [of retaining office].

It was argued by Costello supporters that their man could have broken the impasse and helped reduce Labor s lead. The replacement of Kim Beazley with a relatively unknown leader, seemed to be the event that pushed Labor into the winning position that it held until polling day. This suggests that many voters had been looking for a non-Beazley alternative to the Prime Minister.

Newspoll figures indicate how marked and sudden public acceptance of the change proved to be. Table 2 provides these figures in more depth, comparing the average of the final ten Newspolls of the Beazley period with the first ten polls of the Rudd leadership:. Table 2: Party standings before and after the election of Kevin Rudd as leader Newspoll. The accession of Rudd therefore made it seem much more likely that the Government could be defeated.

But could the Opposition remain united and error-free for the 10 11 months that remained before the election was likely to be held? Sol Lebovic of Newspoll spoke of many voters, who had actually parked their vote with Labor for the time being while they decided to watch its performance on the way to the election.

Lebovic believed that the campaign would indicate whether or not such voters were satisfied by what they saw and heard. In fact, the final result was a confirmation of what had been clear from the advent of Rudd s term as Labor leader, namely that enough swinging voters seemed to have been satisfied by the change, and remained so.

In fact, Newspoll findings suggested that perhaps as many as 53 per cent of voters had decided over half a year in advance how they would vote and followed through on 24 November. It also suggests that Labor s campaign, which so often saw Rudd avoiding the typical we re right and they re wrong stance of the past, was an important part of his party s victory. Table 3: Party standings December November Newspoll. The election was therefore significant for its lack of volatility in the polls and its general air of predictability despite the views of those observers who seemed to believe that the gap between the parties would eventually disappear.

There are two economies that can be relevant to election outcomes. As noted earlier in this paper, when asked about the big picture the national economy and the macroeconomic issues the Coalition invariably was preferred in polling returns. Here, it has been suggested, people in outer metropolitan areas, who had supported the Prime Minister in his promise to keep interest rates low, responded strongly against the rise in rates since that election, with the mid-campaign rise on 7 November biting hard.

With headlines talking of Howard and Costello having apologised to those Australians who had been hit with the mortgage rise, the Prime Minister kept the issue alive by stating that his use of the word sorry was a expression of regret, but did not mean that he was apologising for the rise. Media comment was not kind to the Coalition. Rudd s line about the PM deceiving people in will resonate with many people, regardless of Howard s protestations about precisely what he promised.

At the Australasian Political Science Association conference in late September , one of the authors of this research paper was struck by the apparent unanimity of the assembled political science academics that WorkChoices and the introduction of Australian Workplace Agreements AWA had been a crucial mistake for the Howard Government.

Opinion polls no doubt underpinned the academics views. In an October Newspoll, 40 per cent of respondents said WorkChoices was somewhat bad or very bad ; by April , this had climbed to 48 per cent. Even 22 per cent of Coalition voters labelled the legislation as bad. This was presumably because this workplace legislation impacted in particular on younger workers it brought wage issues into the homes of relatively well-to-do Australians. All of which was presumably reinforced by difficulties with the legislation faced both by managers and workers.

The later introduction of a new fairness test , itself an acknowledgement that the original legislation was hurting wage earners, did not restore Coalition support. The legislation had been the result of a prime ministerial rush of blood according to one critical journalist:. It was a move that threatened to strip people of conditions and benefits that were part of their way of life: penalty rates for working the midnight shift; overtime to pay for a holiday or family pizza on a Friday night; weekend allowances to compensate for not getting to the kids sport WorkChoices was a flawed policy and Howard, normally sensitive to the aspirations of the Howard battlers, was blinded by his own ideological conviction.

WorkChoices, of itself, may not have caused the destruction of the Government, but it was probably a major factor in its fall. This legislation would not have been passed in the form that it had, if the Government had failed to gain control of the Senate in the election. Professor Judith Brett of La Trobe University has claimed that in pushing for the passage of the legislation, Howard handed the middle ground to Labor. The reasons why some voters reject a government at election time are various, and it is probably more likely to be a collection of factors rather than a single issue that turns people away or discourages voters from shifting their vote to a particular government.

The longer a government remains in office, the more that it is likely to antagonise or frustrate members of the public. The Howard Government s experience was no different, and although on some controversial issues its opponent was inclined to present a me-too face to the voters, it is likely that some issues, in addition to those that have already been referred to above, played a part in its election defeat. Among the most publicised were:.

According to opinion poll findings, all of these were issues that concerned many Australians and were likely to cause their votes to shift. As referred to above, the Labor Party s first preference vote As a consequence, preferences played an important role, for only half the seats were decided on first preferences.

Although the Australian Green vote for the lower house was lower than the party hoped for, it played a significant role due to the relatively low vote achieved by the Labor Party. Across the nation, In seats such as Richmond NSW , Leichhardt Qld and Franklin Tas , it was the final parcel of preferences from the Greens that confirmed the Labor candidate s first preference lead enjoyed from the first count.

In some seats, however, the Labor candidate was trailing the Coalition candidate after the penultimate count, and it was Green preferences that clinched the seat finally for the Rudd team. In Bass, Labor s Jodie Campbell saw her party s first preference share fall by two per cent to Ultimately, Although Labor would have won the national election without such a generous allocation of Green preferences, the fact that they received them made their final seat tally healthier than it probably would otherwise have been.

A final note on regional attitudes may be relevant to this result. There are elections when a state seems to have produced a result that might have been affected by local matters Labor s dismal performance in Tasmania in the election is a well-known example. We can still wonder if the impressive Labor s largest vote in was in Western Australia, home of party leader, John Curtin. Although it can be argued that the party had performed so poorly in the state in that this was simply a catch-up effort, might it also have been helped by some voters reaction to having a Queenslander as a party leader and hence, a possible Prime Minister?

Such a possibility is unlikely to be a factor in the two largest states, but in the four others, who knows what local pride might do to some voters preferences? Provisional votes generally are believed to favour Labor candidates over their opponents. In rejected provisional votes outnumbered the final margin of votes in the seats of Bowman, Dickson, Herbert and McEwen.

A case can be made that the marked increase in the proportion of provisional votes that were removed from the count helped save the seats of the Coalition members who held these seats. Two possible alterations to the Commonwealth Electoral Act may well be soon on the Parliament s schedule:. As soon as one election result is known, analysts political, media, academic begin wondering about the election that is to follow.

Although the Rudd Labor Government has a healthy majority in the House of Representatives, its vote margin over the Coalition parties is not large. Its opponents might see more of an opportunity to turn around the result at the first opportunity than observers currently believe is likely. All five have seen a fall in their two-party preferred vote:. The Age , The Rudd Revolution. The story of Election 07, charting Labor's long march and the end of the Howard era , 27 November MacCallum, Mungo, Poll Dancing.

The Story of the Election , Black, Melbourne, Saville, Margot, The Battle for Bennelong. Williams, Paul D. This, and other estimates, is based on two-party preferred votes in the Commonwealth election. Federation seats are those whose names have been in use since the first Commonwealth elections.

With the disappearance of Gwydir, there are now just 38 of the original 63 names still in use. Andren resigned Calare on 17 October He died on 3 November. Queensland s tally of House of Representatives seats rose from 24 to 29 in the period A 30th seat is likely to be added during the 42nd Parliament. This includes Parramatta, held by the ALP.

Constitution, s. Menzies Campbell, It needs to be fixed , Guardian , 8 October Tony Wright, A man among the men , Age , 18 October David Charnock, Plus a change? Paul D. Misha Schubert, Leadership in twilight zone , Age , 1 December Labor has all but conceded the next election , editorial, West Australian , 5 December Mungo MacCallum, Poll Dancing. The Story of the Election , Black, Melbourne, , p. How to win the election , Quarterly Essay , 25, , pp.

That is where an issue is raised that Labor feels obliged to support, even though it drives a wedge between the party and a significant part of its electoral support. Carbon reality check , editorial, Australian , 27 February Paul Kelly, No room for a wedge , Australian , 3 November Eden-Monaro had been won by the election-winning party in all elections since Michelle Grattan, Hockey s job vow is hard to take seriously , Age , 6 November See, for example, Liberal advertisement, Herald Sun , 22 November Tony Wright, All that s left now is the smell of mothballs , Age , 13 November Howard almost out of time , editorial, Weekend Australian , 17 18 November ; Determined Rudd is on message , editorial, Australian , 21 November Determined Rudd , Australian , op.

Howard gets back into the fight , Australian , 18 September Dennis Shanahan, It s time for him to take no chances , Australian , 22 November Brad Norington, Print warriors turning on themselves , Australian , 24 October Matthew Franklin, Rudd grabs air supremacy , Australian , 25 October Internet not yet a force for pollies , op. Margot Saville, The Battle for Bennelong.

Dean Jaensch, Post-election analysis uncovers new truths , Advertiser , 23 January In the Labor vote was unusually low due to the nomination for the Greens of prominent Iraq war opponent, Andrew Wilkie. Tough losing to an out-of-towner , Herald Sun, 26 November Nicholas Stuart, What Goes Up. Behind the election , Scribe Publications, Melbourne, , Prologue.

To the south of the capital, Forde was also lost, but in this case, referred to above, there were different circumstances, including the retirement of the sitting member. Both results were voided, causing by-elections to be held, with Kerby and Blackwood both being defeated. Bennett, Newman and Kopras, Commonwealth Election , op. Prime Minister. Elect one get one free , cartoon, Daily Telegraph , 14 September Paul Kelly, The defeat , op.

Williams, op. Tim Colebatch, Landslide marks election where regional vote-buying never mattered less , Age , 1 December Michelle Grattan, The rise then come in spinner , Age , 8 November Judith Brett, Exit Right. Research Paper Index Research Paper no. It is written as: a journal of record a discussion of the election campaign and a discussion of the election outcome. Appendices give: the election timetable names of the departing Members of the House of Representatives and Senators details of the new members of each house and details of the number of women in the two chambers, including comparisons with the previous three parliaments.

Tables contain: national, state and regional vote summaries details concerning electoral divisions two-party preferred figures and the party strengths in the two houses of the Commonwealth Parliament. Two appendices complete this section of the research paper. The election begins The House of Representatives the battle for government The Challengers Beazley is dropped A new type of Labor campaign The incumbents The Government s claim to be re-elected Coalition negativism Had the campaign been called earlier The diminution of the significance of policy The media and the election A perplexed media narrowing the gap Playing the media game differently The use of new media The House of Representatives result States and Territories Local contests The Senate in whose hands?

Part One is: a journal of record a discussion of the election campaign and a discussion of the election outcome. Part Two comprises a comprehensive set of statistics. These include vote summaries electoral division details two-party preferred figures and the party strengths in the new Parliament. Changes to the Commonwealth Electoral Act Several changes had been made to electoral legislation since the previous election.

When would it be? As he explained, from his perspective there was a practical need to make many announcements before the election announcement: If I announce something now and the election is held X number of weeks after I ve made the announcement, the bureaucracy can implement that decision because it s not been made during the caretaker period. By contrast, when stating that Australians needed to know the values for which Labor stood, Rudd emphasised that socialism isn t one of them : We believe radically in equality of opportunity, that is that every kid from every working family has a decent start in life.

To make it quite clear where he stood, personally, Rudd also asserted: I am not a socialist. Labor s me-tooism and avoidance of the wedge When asked, Australian electors will often express frustration at the negativism of election battles and especially the apparent inability of the two major parties to agree on any issue. Paul Kelly summed up the tactic: Me-tooism is about tactical decisions and strategic redesign that goes to party identity.

The incumbents The Government s claim to be re-elected Essentially, the Howard Government based its campaign on four factors: It made much of its safe hands in regard to the economy and national security , asking voters whether it was worth risking a booming economy and the high international regard that were the consequence of 11 years of outstanding leadership.

A key assumption behind this aspect of the Coalition s campaign was that voters do not turn away from a government when the economy is doing well. Party strategists put a great reliance on the fact that polls continually put the Coalition ahead of Labor as the best economic managers. Liberal backbencher Don Randall warned that if people returned a Labor government, they will lose their houses.

People are betting their houses at this election. Although there were some Liberals who wondered if Howard should have resigned in favour of Treasurer Costello in see below , many more in his party considered him central to the Liberals chances, citing his outstanding record in office since the Coalition came to power in March Randall summed up such views: Howard is by far and away the best prime minister Australia has had in history.

Many Liberals pointed to the absence, as they saw it, of any sound reason for the voters to throw over this experience. Abbott, for instance, described the Howard Government as possessing, the best leadership team that Australia has ever had. The election seemed to produce a marked increase in this type of campaigning that had been a fundamental part of the Coalition s campaign. The Eden-Monaro list included a traffic strategy for Queanbeyan, funds for a Cooma skate park and refurbishment of its swimming pool, overhaul of Braidwood s sewerage system, help for autistic children, funding for a charity working with the socially isolated, assistance to a local timber mill, improvement of camping facilities for Bungendore Showground, upgrading of roads in the Tumut area and the restoration of environmental flows in the Snowy River.

There was confidence among many Liberals that such gifts to local communities would aid the party, as they were believed to have done in previous elections. The possible undermining of the federal system of government was a matter for some future time. Coalition negativism It is a commonplace that a party s tactics in an election campaign need to be a blend of positive and negative messages. The union threat The second threat that received much publicity was that of the rampant unionism that was likely to hit the country if the restraining hand of the Coalition Government were removed.

The pamphlet warned: Our youth have never experienced a socialist government with its continuous barrage of laws, rules and regulations, the never-ending interference of government and unions in our lives and the soul-destroying unemployment as our living standard drops It is difficult to know how this approach affected voters perceptions of the Labor Party, but one journalist lampooned the Coalition s effort, noting that Howard s men were warning, that socialists and unionists are coming, pikes raised, torches aflame.

Inevitably, Labor would be held to ransom so as to implement what Minchin described as the Greens dangerous policy agenda : This is the first time in Australian history that a radical left-wing party like the Greens have been poised to gain such an unprecedented level of power in the Senate. An obsession with Gillard? Had the campaign been called earlier In a political system which grants the Prime Minister the power to nominate election day, the incumbent is expected to use this power to his or her party s advantage.

The diminution of the significance of policy The Commonwealth election was therefore one in which policy matters, and the differences between the parties, seemed to play a lesser role than is often the case. The media and the election Polls indicate changing trends media forecasts vary Tiffin predicted accurately that many in the media would base their coverage of the contest on the assumption that the early gap between the parties would narrow, was narrowing, and finally, had closed, even if Labor were to remain in a position to win a comfortable victory.

Tiffin claimed that this was partly because the media have an interest in building the sense of an exciting contest, partly because the current polls are so deviant from recent patterns that many believe they must narrow perhaps partly reflecting wishful thinking by some in the media.

The importance of poll results was suggested by Dennis Shanahan: The Coalition has fought back after John Howard s dramatic undertaking to retire as prime minister during the next term and can now make a fight of the election Labor still has a clear election-winning lead on a two-party preferred basis of 55 per cent to the Coalition s 45, and Kevin Rudd is well clear of Mr Howard as preferred prime minister.

The picture was not completely clear, however, with the parties polling quite differently on a range of issues, as Dennis Shanahan further noted: The Coalition has stretched its commanding lead over Labor on the key vote-changing issues of the economy and national security.

Two days before polling day commentators noted that Labor had worked successfully on many policy issues: months of strict discipline and superb political tactics have diverted and frustrated the Coalition. Brad Norington, of the Australian , observed: What appears to be upsetting the commentators is that the polls have not followed their past course over the last nine months before the election by shifting in the Coalition s favour.

A week before polling day he complained that: The strategy is to avoid as many as possible of the longer, considered interviews that he can Compare that to [John] Howard's approach; he will always do those interviews. McArthur wrote to the Australian Electoral Commission to complain that there was no official authorisation for what was written, as required by electoral law: The Internet can provide positive opportunities for direct political communication between the public and their representatives but site operators must exercise a duty of care.

It lost two seats, both in Western Australia. Despite a first preference gain of 5. A Newspoll sampling 1, voters taken over the weekend prior to the leaders' debate reported a swing to Labor, increasing their two-party-preferred lead to 58 per cent, a rise of 2 points. Labor's primary vote increased 3 points to 51 per cent, and the Liberals decreased by 2 points to 34 per cent. Rudd extended his lead by 2 points to 50 per cent, with Howard down by 2 points to 37 per cent.

The Liberals slogan, "go for growth" was launched after announcing the largest tax cut in Australian history. During the latter part of the week union influence over the ALP was questioned after the launch of the Liberal party's first campaign ads. Labor responded with commercials attacking the Liberals' campaign as 'smears', which was disputed by John Howard. One of the Liberal Party election commercials was corrected after it incorrectly said Wayne Swan and Craig Emerson had previously been union officials.

Rudd had called for a minimum of three debates between himself and Howard, while Howard, who had been rated poorly by studio audiences at past leadership debates, pressed for a single debate. A total of 2. The last election debate in was watched by 1. The debate audience was , with the Coalition and Labor each selecting Kevin Rudd argued that the Liberal Party was being influenced by the H.

Nicholls Society to make further reforms to industrial relations, citing Nick Minchin 's speech at the Society's conference where he told the audience that the Coalition "knew its reform to WorkChoices were not popular but the process of change must continue", [60] and that "there is still a long way to go Rudd said that Howard had "no plan for the future" on tackling climate change. Howard said that a Coalition government would establish a climate change fund after , which would be financed by carbon offsets.

The Nine Network, which broadcast the debate as an extended edition of 60 Minutes , used ' the Worm ' in its broadcast despite prior objections from the Liberal Party and action from the National Press Club to cease its video feed. As a result, the Nine Network's feed was cut part way into the broadcast, which Nine then replaced with Sky News's coverage. Both sides, however, claimed victory. Steps were taken to ensure equal numbers so as not to taint the Worm. At one point, Peter Costello was asked to cease interjecting.

Figures released on the Tuesday, showed a stronger than expected underlying rate of inflation of 3 per cent. Controversy arose over the Coalition's climate change policy, with The Financial Review citing "government sources" who claimed Turnbull told Cabinet six weeks ago it should sign the Kyoto Protocol. Neither Howard nor Turnbull denied the story.

The story said that "internal critics" are claiming Turnbull is "selfishly positioning himself for a Coalition defeat" and a "possible post-poll leadership battle with Treasurer Peter Costello". The story led to claims of major splits in Cabinet. Labor also suffered from mixed messages. Kevin Rudd was compelled to clarify Labor policy on climate change after an interview in which Peter Garrett suggested Labor would sign up to the post-Kyoto agreement at even if carbon-emitting developing countries did not.

Rudd's comments, which he described as having "always been [Labor's] position", saw Labor's policy move closer to Liberal policy, insofar as Labor would ratify the agreement only after persuading all major carbon emitters, developing and developed, to ratify.

John Howard said the Coalition would not match Labor's promise of 20 per cent renewable energy target. Howard claimed Labor's policy "imposes too many additional costs to industry". Peter Garrett replied that lack of government action has cost jobs. The Coalition announced a promise to open 50 new emergency medical centres on Australia if re-elected.

Adding to the campaign trend of both major parties criticising their opponent for plagiarism and "me-tooism", [ citation needed ] Labor responded that the government had copied its policy. Peter Garrett was criticised by the Coalition when radio announcer Steve Price revealed Garrett had said to TV presenter Richard Wilkins that, "once we get in we'll just change it all" in reference to copying Coalition policies.

Garrett said the comment was made during a "short, jocular and casual" conversation and Wilkins supported Garrett's response, saying that it was a "light-hearted throwaway line". Tim Costello , director of World Vision Australia and Peter Costello's brother, criticised Australia's ranking of 19th out of 22 OECD countries for provision of overseas aid, and for government unwillingness to increase its policy of 0.

Costello focused mainly on the government's past record, advocating the need for Australia to build into the future, while Swan said Labor were interested in "investing in people". Abbott's character and ministerial capacity were questioned by Roxon for his comments about terminally ill asbestos campaigner Bernie Banton and for arriving 35 minutes late to debate.

At the end of the debate, Roxon suggested to Abbott that he "could have arrived on time" if he had "really wanted to", to which Abbott replied "bullshit". On 10 November, the Australian Democrats held their campaign launch in Melbourne under the banner of Bring Back Balance , a reference to their central campaign theme of preventing the government from regaining absolute control of the Senate.

The Reserve Bank of Australia adjusted interest rates upwards by another 0. Hockey argued that Labor's policy to drop Workchoices was Australia's biggest threat to inflation. Garrett criticised the government's record on climate change to which Turnbull responded that Garrett's current claims betray his previous career as a political activist. It accused the Howard Government of being "irresponsible".

In addition to previous education funding announcements, Rudd promised Labor would provide an additional 65, apprenticeships, migrate all schools to new high speed broadband, and provide all year 9—12 students with access to their own computer. A doubling of the number of undergraduate and postgraduate scholarships available at a tertiary level was announced, and the party re-iterating its view on climate change and WorkChoices. The Labor Party released footage on Thursday 15 November to Lateline, showing Tony Abbott addressing a room of people, stating "I accept that certain protections, in inverted commas, are not what they were" in reference to WorkChoices legislation.

Referring to award structures, Abbott said in the same footage: "I accept that that has largely gone. I accept that. Newspoll stated Labor's two-party-preferred level was down one point to 54 per cent. Former Liberal Party campaign director Lynton Crosby said that the Coalition was "closing in on Labor" in the final week and could "still win a tight election" on a campaign of defending marginal seats, declaring a win still possible on On 20 November, John Howard defended the government's advertising spending in the months prior to the campaign, paid for with public money.

Howard was criticised for not revealing documents written by his department about further changes to industrial relations laws in addition to WorkChoices legislation. In response, the government said the proposals had been cancelled, and that WorkChoices would not be expanded upon. The Seven Network failed in attempt to access the documents under Freedom of Information.

Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce said that the possibility of his crossing the floor to support Labor's amendments to WorkChoices remained open, and that he would judge all legislation on its merits, for which he was criticised by Nationals leader Mark Vaile. On 21 November, three days before the election, fake pamphlets were distributed in the electorate of Lindsay , which purported to be from an Islamic group.

The group was non-existent and the pamphlets thanked the Labor Party for supporting the Bali bombers and encouraged people to vote Labor. Citing a clause of the Constitution that states parliamentarians are not permitted to hold an "office of profit under the crown", government frontbencher Andrew Robb said that up to 13 Labor candidates standing in the election may be ineligible for nomination.

According to Robb, a "search of public records" indicated that the 13 candidates may have still been employed by government agencies, boards or offices, and that the Liberal Party may consider legal challenges to their election. According to Labor Senator Penny Wong , all Labor's candidates were eligible to stand, and that the Liberals had obtained the information from outdated websites.

Network Ten and SBS Television included brief updates and news bulletins through the night, but not to the other networks' extent. Sky News offered extensive coverage on Pay TV. Roy Morgan polling in June reported WorkChoices was a reason for Labor party support, and a fear of union dominance and support for Coalition economic management policy as the biggest reasons behind the Coalition vote. A Newspoll released in June reported health and Medicare were the most important issue for voters; 83 per cent of respondents rated it "very important".

Other key issues included education 79 per cent , the economy 67 per cent , the environment 60 per cent and national security 60 per cent. Taxation and interest rates, key issues in previous campaigns, were rated very important by 54 per cent and 51 per cent respectively. Immigration, a key issue in , scored 43 per cent. The poll showed that voters considered Labor marginally better-placed to handle health and education, and gave the government strong backing on the economy and national security.

Kevin Rudd promised Labor would introduce a greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 60 per cent by , ratify the Kyoto protocol and introduce a mandatory renewable energy target MRET of 20 per cent by The Howard government reiterated their position of not ratifying the Kyoto protocol, setting "voluntary aspirational emission reduction targets" and introducing a carbon emissions trading scheme by On 7 June in a speech promoting the government's handling of the economy, Treasurer Peter Costello recalled the learner driver slogan of the election : "This [the economy] is like a highly engineered racing car and I tell you what, I wouldn't be putting an L-plate driver in the cockpit at the moment".

Labor used the news to argue that the Coalition could not be trusted to keep interest rates low, while Costello argued that interest rates would be higher under Labor. During October Immigration Minister Kevin Andrews's decision to cut Australia's refugee intake and expressing public concern about Sudanese migrants was branded as racist. She said: "It has been a long time since I have heard such a pure form of racism out of the mouth of any Australian politician.

Andrews was accused of helping to fuel assaults of Sudanese. During the controversy one criticism was that Andrews justified his decision based on "concerns raised by the community", however no official report or inquest has been tendered, leading to the conclusion that any 'concerns' were both unofficial, undocumented and most probably belonging to a racially intolerant minority.

The Howard government had before used the race card in an election year to distract the voters from its other failures. This was most significant in the election with the infamous Tampa affair, in which the government was badly trailing in the polls before vilifying middle-eastern "boat people". The strategy worked for the government by exploiting the underlying racist elements of Australian society. Andrews defended the system of having refugee quotas against the opinion expressed that intakes of refugees should be variated on the basis of global needs.

Rudd advocated four-year fixed terms for federal parliaments if elected. Howard supported four-year terms but opposed fixed election dates. Any change would require approval by referendum. On several key questions, Labor increased its lead after Rudd assumed the Labor leadership from Kim Beazley , at which point Rudd also assumed the lead as preferred prime minister.

While Labor was ahead in opinion polling, Howard had led Beazley on this question by a wide margin. The new industrial relations program, Carr said, angered the "Howard battlers" — the traditional Labor voters who had supported Howard for most of the last 11 years — because they saw it as a direct attack on their livelihood. ACNielsen polling in March had Rudd's personal approval rating at 67 per cent, which made him the most popular opposition leader in the poll's year history, [] with Newspoll News Limited 2PP polling the highest in its history.

The largest 2PP election result for the ALP in its history was at the election on an estimate of A weighted collaboration of all polling since Rudd assumed the ALP leadership shows an average Labor 2PP figure of 57 per cent compared with the Coalition's 43 per cent, [] and Rudd's consistent outpolling of Howard as preferred prime minister, something not achieved under previous leaders Mark Latham , Kim Beazley or Simon Crean. By the time the writs were issued, the Coalition was well behind Labor in opinion polling, which election analyst Antony Green believed to show Labor winning government "in a canter".

According to Green, this was a nearly exact reversal of the run-up to the election. The Coalition was running ahead of Labor in two-party opinion polling for much of and , however the mantle of preferred prime minister regularly switched between Howard and Paul Keating. Possums Pollytics, an anonymous weblog, stated that due to the uneven nature of the swings, where safe Liberal seats were swinging up to Polling consistently showed that the economy and national security were the Coalition's strong areas.

In August an Ipsos poll showed 39 per cent of voters thought Labor was a better economic manager, compared to 36 per cent for the Coalition, with 25 per cent undecided. The morning of the election announcement, a special Sun-Herald Taverner survey of people across New South Wales and Victoria had been released, indicating a Labor 2PP of 59 per cent, with the to year-old category voting at 72 per cent.

Howard increased his Preferred PM rating up one per cent to 39 per cent, while Rudd increased his rating up one per cent to 48 per cent. On the day after the election was called, Centrebet had odds of 1. Newspoll a week out from the election of 3, voters in 18 of the Coalition's most marginal seats revealed an ALP 54—46 Coalition 2PP, a swing to Labor of 6—9 per cent.

A uniform swing would see 18—25 seats fall to Labor, The Australian said. Former Labor number-cruncher Graham Richardson , who news. Peter Day, a journalist ex-The Australian , stated two days before the election that, if the Coalition were re-elected, it would be "the biggest polling embarrassment in any developed country since Truman beat Dewey in ".

Sky News - Channel 7 -Auspoll exit polls on election day of 2, voters in the 31 most marginal seats suggested a 53 per cent two-party preferred figure to Labor, 53 per cent to Labor in Bennelong , and 58 per cent to Labor in Eden-Monaro.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Results by popular vote by state and territory. Main article: Results of the Australian federal election, House of Representatives. See also: Post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, and Members of the Australian House of Representatives, — Popular Vote Labor. Two Party Preferred Vote Labor. Parliament Seats Labor.

Main article: Results of the Australian federal election Senate. See also: Members. Main article: Candidates of the Australian federal election. Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 23 May Australia Votes ABC Online. Archived from the original on 22 October Retrieved 25 November Sky News Australia. Retrieved 13 June Archived from the original on 25 November Australia Votes ". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

Archived from the original on 21 July The Australian. News Ltd. Archived from the original on 6 February Retrieved 17 March Archived from the original on 11 September Retrieved 16 March Coalition percentage total equals the sum of the joint ticket The Nationals do not field candidates in Tasmania and the territories, with the Country Liberal Party CLP replacing both parties as the centre-right coalition party in the Northern Territory.

They may hold balance of power". The Age. Fairfax Media. Archived from the original on 13 January Retrieved 1 January Retrieved 30 July Archived from the original on 23 October Archived from the original on 26 November Archived from the original on 24 November Archived from the original on 9 March Retrieved 26 November Sydney Morning Herald.

Seven News. Archived from the original on 13 December Retrieved 1 December Business Spectator. Archived from the original on 15 February Nine Network. Herald Sun. Archived from the original on 18 February The Canberra Times. Archived from the original on 3 August Archived from the original on 2 November Retrieved 30 November The Sydney Morning Herald.

Decision Archived from the original on 4 March Retrieved 28 November Archived from the original on 1 December Archived from the original on 2 December Archived from the original on 3 February Archived from the original on 11 April Archived from the original on 26 December Retrieved 21 December Government of Australia.

This paper follows a similar format to the Parliamentary Library studies of theand Commonwealth elections.

Nba free agents betting odds The largest 2PP election result for the ALP in its history was at the election on an estimate of The Pedigree sports bettingThe Rudd Revolution. A uniform swing would see 18—25 seats fall to Labor, The Australian said. The other legislation that fulfilled the constitutional requirement for a double dissolution election at that time was the Fairer Private Health Insurance Incentives Bill [No. Labor s largest vote in was in Western Australia, home of party leader, John Curtin.
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However, Lees did have some impact on the outcome, as there were large numbers of below the line preferences for both the Progressive Alliance as well as One Nation which were widely spread rather than flowing to the Democrats. When the Democrats were excluded, preferences flowed to Family First which prevented the Greens' Brian Noone passing the third Labor candidate. This resulted in a seat that could otherwise have been won by the Greens instead being won by Labor on Green preferences.

Labor's Dana Wortley was elected to the final vacancy. In Queensland , Pauline Hanson attracted 38, below the line votes and pulled away from One Nation. Joyce then unexpectedly won the fifth vacancy ahead of the Liberal Party. The sixth and last vacancy was then won by Liberal Russell Trood. Despite constant media attention on preference deals, and a widely held belief that the two party preferred result for the election would be close, the Newspoll figures during the three months prior to the election showed little alteration in the first preference margin between the parties, nor was there any evidence of any voter volatility.

The figures suggested, then, that as the Coalition's first preference vote was healthy, the most likely result was a Government victory. This was born out in the election results when the Liberal first preference vote of The collapse of Labor's primary vote therefore negated this effect, even though 61 out of House of Representatives seats were decided on preferences. The national outcome of minor party preference distributions in order of number primary votes received is summarised in the following table: [22].

Dates for financial disclosure for the Federal election were specified by the Australian Electoral Commission. Broadcasters and publishers had to lodge their returns by 6 December, while candidates and Senate groups needed to lodge by 24 January This information was made available for public scrutiny on 28 March From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

Redirected from Australian federal election, As this is an IRV election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote by state or territory but instead via results in each electorate. Main article: Full national lower house results for the Australian federal election.

Popular Vote Liberal. Two Party Preferred Vote Coalition. Parliament Seats Coalition. For all seats, see Mackerras federal election pendulum, Main article: Results of the Australian federal election Senate. See also: Members. This section has multiple issues. Please help improve it or discuss these issues on the talk page.

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September Learn how and when to remove this template message. Retrieved 24 May Archived from the original on 3 March Retrieved 30 July ABC News Online". Archived from the original on 15 February Archived from the original on 23 November Archived from the original on 21 October How Senate Voting Works.

Antony Green's Election Guide. Australian Broadcasting Corporation". Archived from the original on 11 May On Line Opinion. Senate — NSW Results. Archived from the original on 20 April Senate — WA Results. Senate — SA Results. Senate — QLD Results. Archived from the original on 21 April Archived from the original on 20 October Archived from the original on 23 October Archived from the original on 9 May Elections and referendums in Australia.

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Ex-Service, Service and Veterans Party. People have bet on elections for many years. Despite a rather chequered history, this tendency has survived to today, with many people eager to wager on the outcome of elections, and particularly general elections. These days, betting on Australian election results is regarded as simply a form of sports betting. Taken online by a bookmaking industry that realised how much of a market these factors generated, a significant number of Australians enjoy placing wagers on the election results.

This Australian election betting action is seen as friendly speculation allowing partisans to intensify the ritual experience of elections. These bookmaker sites provide odds on specific eventualities occurring as a result of the elections. Obviously these eventualities as well as the federal election betting odds offered for them are going to be different for each election, and in fact should be watched carefully throughout an election as they may vary considerably and very quickly during the course of that election too.

Online election betting Australia sites therefore provide a range of eventualities, with federal election betting odds, for punters to bet on. The options available include overall results such as an outright win for either party, whether a coalition could be formed to provide a government, or whether there would be a hung parliament, for instance.