What early conclusions can we draw? Well, certainly that QPR, Wolves and Sheffield Wednesday deserve to be higher up in the league table, and that perhaps Huddersfield, Birmingham and Reading are punching above their weight. Think about it: a ratio less than one dictates that the team in question is conceding more shots on target than their opponents, and so they must rely on good goalkeeping to maintain their vanity defensively and hope that their attackers are suitably skilled at finishing to make the most of the limited chances that come their way.
The teams we have backed are the ones that are at least three places higher in our SOTR than their opponents, and their price represents good value. With six fixtures fitting the bill, clearly there is a good sample size to see just how effective the theory is. The SOTR numbers are taken to offer long-term value, and so across a whole season they should, ultimately, pay dividends.
Nobody said it was perfect…. Figures and Tables. Citation Type. Has PDF. Publication Type. More Filters. The efficacy of league formats in ranking teams. View 3 excerpts, cites methods, background and results. Research Feed. Prediction and retrospective analysis of soccer matches in a league.
Highly Influential. View 15 excerpts, references methods and background. Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football. View 2 excerpts, references background. A birth process model for association football matches. View 4 excerpts, references methods and background.
View 8 excerpts, references background and methods. Game ON! View 2 excerpts, references methods. Modelling association football scores.
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