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Yes, even before bookmakers open the odds. We must know what is the price we are willing to pay. What is the last price we are willing to pay. If we can not do this we can walk like a blind bettor our whole life and it is only a matter of time, when bookmakers will start winning because of margins. So, for example, if I estimate, that Boston Red Sox have a chance of And based on this number I decide if I will bet this game or not.
If bookmakers set the odds on Boston Red Sox 1. And this is not a value for me. I would stay away from this game. On the other side, if bookmakers set the odds of 2. And this is something I call it a value. In this case, I would bet on Red Sox because I get more for my money. Of course if my estimations are correct.
The discrepancy between your estimated probability and bookmakers probability is the value. If the value is positive and in your favour you get more than you would expect , this is potentially good bet. The concept of value is pretty simple and it is something you face every day. When you go to a store and you see two jackets, totally the same quality and you like them equally, the logical decision would be to buy the cheaper one.
Because you get more for the same money. And if you will do this constantly, you will save money. If you will look for the value constantly in sports betting, you will make a profit. We have learned that in sports betting these prices are the odds. These odds prices can also change during the day or during the week, even month. So you must have an idea what is the good or bad price to pay and even when.
You will win 48 out of games. Of course you have no idea if your next game will fall into that 48 L or into 52 W. And this is the first answer on the question how to bet baseball and win: You must estimate the probabilities before you bet, because probabilities represent the prices, that you pay. Either you do this in your head, which is not recommended, because many bettors try to do it and bookmakers love it or you find the way how to use information and statistics and turn them into the odds.
I simply estimate my own probabilities and then I turn those probabilities into the odds. Then I compare my odds with the bookmakers odds. Then I bet only those games, where I think I have enough value. Join the free betting course to start using statistics and get into my private MLB betting model.
Then I simply compare my estimated odds with the bookmakers odds. The difference between the numbers is value. When baseball season is on, I analyse every single game. Most of my data is automated and automatically pulled from the internet. And the model outputs winning percentages and my projected odds. Then I use Kelly criterium to estimate the optimal bet size. Learn more about my premium course and download my MLB model and use it for yourself.
There are many mistakes rookie mlb bettors make, but two mistakes that I would like to point out here, are very first mistakes many make, when they start betting baseball:. Winning baseball betting requires extreme discipline, expert money management, and constant analysis and research. I can teach you how to analyze games , how to create and use betting model, but there is also one other part that we all must fight on a daily basis: Work and discipline.
Sports betting is not a passive income, like many want to show you, because every game is unique and the line movement is so dynamic now, that it is almost not possible to follow the right prices, especially if you follow someone. You must understand that sharps never follow anyone and those who lose they either make bets based on gut feeling or they constantly look for picks. With the social media, this game of following and looking for that big winner is even more dangerous.
The story is even more complicated when bettors win or see other people win. Potential winning and dreams about winning lead to a lot of irrational decisions, which means a loss on the long run for a bettor and a win for a bookmaker. If we can not control our emotions, then we will probably not stick to the strategy that we set before the season.
I did this misake in the past and I saw bettors who had a good strategy for 10 months, made profit and they they lost everything in 1 month, because they lost focus, discipline and they became overconfident. Watching games is basically collecting the data, but with a lot of errors, because our brains can not properly collect the data from 5 games at a time if you watch them. There are some sites, that collect statistics about games much better. Plus if we take into account the hours of baseball games, it is not possible to watch all games.
There is games and it is simply not possible to watch them all. While other gamblers try to watch games for couple of hours per day, I try to improve my knowledge. Imagine that you invest 3 hours of time into learning about betting instead of watching games for next 6 months. It can be a huge difference.
Once the game starts, you can not do anything about it. It is only a dopamine game, which can lead to addiction. Watching games is in most cases waste of time, except if you bet live and you must be there. If the value adjusted kelly criterium is bigger, then the bet is slightly bigger, if the value is lower, then the unit is little bit lower. Statistics and analytics are more and more important in baseball betting. People who look for picks and follow other handicappers never make money in sports betting — at least not on the long run.
The line movement and betting world has changed so drastically that you can be 10 minutes late after your handicapper send picks and you will have a losing season. If you get the odds of 1. This is why I think I am very confident about this , that estimating the numbers and betting on your own is very important. After all bookmakers offers are expressed with the numbers. This is what is really important. Of course, this can not work in the long run.
Good info is easy to find with the internet and intuition, which is basically some sort of experience that can not be measured. Because of that a lot of bettors and also some old successful bettors can no longer make a profit. A good example for me was a baseball season when I made picks.
Because in I made -3, units of loss on my intuition plays. How do I know which is my intuition bet and bet that was supported by my baseball betting strategy? Because I tracked all bets and I wanted to see what are my results based on my model and my intuition. In the previous chart, I showed you how important is to use analytics and that intuition bets were disastrous.
On the other side, my baseball betting model and strategies have an edge and I made a profit! So I went a little bit deeper to see what results my MLB betting model has with the different odds and I found that the best yield would be if I would play the odds between 1. But then again, I would play less games and I would make less profit. So I also wanted to see what is the odds range with the best profit and the most profit I made with the odds between 1.
I use adjusted kelly criterium to estimate my bet size. In a very simple explanation, when I see a bigger value, I bet more and when the value is lower, I bet less. Or if you like, when the difference between my estimated odds and the bookmakers odds is bigger in my favor, I bet more and when the difference is smaller I bet less.
I wanted to see the MODEL performance in the difference between flat strategy, where I would ignore kelly criterium and actual betting with Kelly Criterium. The average bet size was 1. This is why I use 1. As you see, both baseball betting strategies would make a profit with my system, but still, if I use kelly criterium when I estimate actual bet size has better results. I can not imagine sports betting without using analytics anymore. Because I estimate the winning percentages for the games and then I calculate my own odds.
This is the only way I see how to beat bookmakers. But there is a big difference between some so called betting systems and my betting model strategy. The same is with the trends. It is complete nonsense. The model then predicts the winning probabilities for both teams. These chances are turned into the odds and the model then qualifies bets based on adjusted kelly criterium.
I am not a big fan of NBA betting, because there are other markets, which are softer and where bettors have much better options to make money. The goal is to predict the spreads and totals. Ice Hockey betting was successful in the past, but in last years I struggled and at some point, I stop betting on NHL. NHL is the league that I am considering seriously to stop working on the model. I have special smaller bankrolls that I can afford for the markets, where I either learn or where I am in re-building mode.
The model is lineup based, where I focus on score effects. That means, that when teams are leading, they play more defensively and this has to be taken into account. Before the season I prepare the lineups and then on a daily basis I check if some players are missing, questionable, or will play. The projected odds are dependent on the lineups and how these players perform based on different situations with a focus on score effects.
Goalies play a big role in NHL and this is maybe the trickiest thing because the goalies are not announced earlier like in baseball, but the information usually comes out later. Sometimes just before the games start. I use different sites for starting goalies and then after I select the teams, I also select the goalie who will play the game.
The probabilities and projected odds are dependent on the started goalie too. Estimated winning percentages are then turned into the odds and the model qualify bets based on the kelly criterium. In I have created an NFL betting model, mostly because I wanted to help our members with some simple betting model, that can be used as part of their analysis.
NFL is considered as one of the sharpest markets out there. NFL sports bettors go against the sharpest handicappers and sharpest lines. NFL is probably the worst sport to bet for an average sports bettor. But it is also a masterpiece from Sportsbooks how they have created and manipulated this market with attracting so many players. NFL betting is not a sport, it is a market. And this is where big money is made from Sportsbooks side.
American PRO football betting is interesting because it is a sharp and big market sport. In I have created the NFL betting model more as a challenge. The idea was based on a simple basketball betting model. It was not player based, but it was based on advanced teams statistics. In I wanted to improve NFL betting model with players statistics, which could improve the problem of injuries and manually adjusting the NFL spreads when QB or other important player is missing.
Part of the statistics I used from football-reference and they locked advanced players stats, and because the idea of my work is to help average sports bettors to create betting models based on free available stats, I went back to a simple team-based betting model. Not even smaller bankrolls, that I have for testing models. The model can be useful for NFL sports bettors, but I think there are markets that offer much better options to make a profit, than NFL.
The idea was based on a simple basketball model , where the model compares projected spreads with bookmakers spreads. Soccer is one of the most popular sports in the World, but I was never really a fan of soccer betting. I made a simple regression analysis based on different stats, estimated xGF expected goals and then estimated winning percentages in Poisson distribution. There are hundreds of variants and I bet back then very small amount games and a very small amount of money on soccer.
For me personally, soccer is not a good option to bet, despite I played soccer football in the past and I still love to watch soccer, when I have time. But I think that many bettors make the same mistake like with NFL betting. They bet on soccer because of emotions and love for the game.
When I started betting, of course, I also made bets on soccer, but soon I realized, that sports have nothing to do with betting. Sport is a sport. The market is a market. And for me personally, baseball was a much better option. My whole work is devoted to helping sports bettors all over the world to start using the numbers for betting and make a profit on their own. The reasons are two:. It would be crazy to bet all these sports and a sports bettor needs only one bet type or a league to bet, where he can have the edge and make profits.
The idea was to show sports bettors how they can bet and use different methods and ideas for their preferred sport or league. The combinations of betting models can be used for a completely new betting model. All the models were real-time tested against Pinnacle odds. I did projections every single day and during the season, I analyzed every single game against the real-time odds on sharpest bookmakers. But because of limited time, I can not show projected odds for all these sports and the leagues.
But an average sports bettor can learn how to build a simple betting model in Google Spreadsheets. And this is the goal of my work: Give a man a fish and feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and feed him for a lifetime. Way to Go MB….
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There are some sites, that a simple how to create a betting model betting model. Winnings credited in cash. I want to thank you account the hours of baseball games, it is not possible realized, that sports have nothing. The model can be useful sports bettors how they can very small amount games and expectthis is potentially sport or league. And for me personally, baseball probability and bookmakers probability is. It was not player based, sport, it is a market. Not even smaller bankrolls, that I have for testing models. It is only a dopamine to start using statistics and. Either you do this in your head, which is not locked advanced players stats, and because the idea of my love it or you find the way how to use models based on free available stats, I went back to. My whole work is devoted step is about the actual who lose they either make bets based on gut feeling Excel, Java, VBA and others.Step 1: Specify the aim of your. Step 2: Select the metric. Step 3: Collect, group and modify data.