He just does what he has to do at home. He travelled and quicken very well. I was surprise at how well he travelled. Marco Botti done a great job with him. He is very straight forward and laid back at home. The plan was to come here today and then go for the Lockinge Stakes next likely to clash with Frankel there. Mobile View. Logon Register. Betting Home ";. Daily Specials. Fast Results ";. Daily Statistics. Season Statistics. Leading Trainers.
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Track this horse Track this horse. All Distances 6f 7f 1m. All race types Flat Turf Maiden. All Configurations Left-Handed Straight. All track types Galloping Level Testing Undulating. All Classes 1 3 5. Summary - Data does not include this horse 27 runs, 3 wins 2 horses , 4 placed, 20 unplaced. Next time out 7 runs, 0 wins, 0 placed, 7 unplaced. Class analysis 0 runs up in class, 0 wins, 0 placed, 0 unplaced. Index value from 7 horses. Full Replay Show Finish. ATR Future Form. Summary - Data does not include this horse 32 runs, 8 wins 3 horses , 8 placed, 16 unplaced.
Next time out 7 runs, 1 win, 3 placed, 3 unplaced. Summary - Data does not include this horse 26 runs, 1 win 1 horse , 1 placed, 24 unplaced. Next time out 5 runs, 1 win, 0 placed, 4 unplaced. Class analysis 3 runs up in class, 0 wins, 0 placed, 3 unplaced. Index value from 5 horses.
Date days since Race Details Wgt. Summary - Data does not include this horse 42 runs, 5 wins 3 horses , 9 placed, 28 unplaced. Next time out 9 runs, 1 win, 1 placed, 7 unplaced. Index value from 9 horses. Summary - Data does not include this horse 20 runs, 4 wins 1 horse , 1 placed, 15 unplaced. Next time out 4 runs, 1 win, 0 placed, 3 unplaced. Index value from 4 horses. Summary - Data does not include this horse 31 runs, 12 wins 5 horses , 4 placed, 15 unplaced. Next time out 7 runs, 4 wins, 1 placed, 2 unplaced.
Message No Future Entries. View Full Racecard. John Velazquez. Rafael Bejarano. Joseph Talamo. J P O'Brien. Brice Blanc. Garrett Gomez. Mike Smith. T Jarnet. James Graham.
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|Can you bet sports on bovada||South Africa. View Full Racecard. Index value from 5 horses. J P O'Brien. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stakes not returned, restrictions apply. Marco Botti done a great job with him.|
|Super bowl betting topics of conversation||A Kirby. Garrett Gomez. ATR Future Form Summary - Data does not include this horse 20 runs, 4 wins 1 horse1 placed, 15 unplaced Next time out 4 runs, 1 win, 0 placed, 3 unplaced Class analysis 0 runs up in class, 0 wins, 0 placed, 0 unplaced Ratings check Highest winning OR: ; Highest placed OR: Index value from 4 horses. Dam's Sire. Brice Blanc. Sign up to bet|
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The handicapper has left her on the same mark which is encouraging. I believe she will have improved for the run at Kempton and although she is unproven on the Tapeta surface, if she takes to it and I see no reason why she won't then and will be looking to make amends today. Wolverhampton - Bee Able win bet.
Dave your above is good work and best of for both. Fantastic Flyer ran well and looked to have every chance and then I think a lack of race fitness showed and once beaten she wasn't given a hard time. I haven't really had an opportunity to review the Southwell card in any great detail as yet and nothing has jumped off the page.
If I'm going to have a bet then I will update here. I have a few selections today that I have had bets on and I thought I'd share them with you. He is trained by MickAppleby and is ridden by Alistair Rawlinson. Both of those wins were over 5F where he showed lost of early pace.
He won LTO at Wolverhampton over 5F and the handicapper has raised him 5lbs for that victory taking him up to a mark of He has previously won off a mark of 68 back in For me the big question is whether he will handle the surface having not raced upon it. The stables are close to Southwell and I would be surprised if he hasn't had a training run on the surface. If he handles the surface then I believe he will win. He is trained by Roy Bowring and ridden by Darragh Keenan. He is penalised 5lbs for that win but is due to go up 8lbs so they are looking to get him out quickly under the penalty.
His LTO speed figure was good and if he reproduces that he could well win this race making it 3 from 3. The handicapper didn't let her winning form go unnoticed and she went up in the weights. The last time she raced at the course was back in October and she had a rating of 68 and finished a close up 3rd beaten by 2 lengths. Since then she has been running at Newcastle at 6F which is too short for her, Southwell which clearly doesn't suit and Lingfield where she tried to make all and that didn't appear to suit.
She appears to be well handicapped and she isn't badly drawn. He is trained by Warren Greatrex who has only had 15 runners at the course previously and 2 of those have won. His son Tom Greatrex claiming 3lbs takes the ride today. Tom has ridden the gelding twice previously and is looking for his first win on him.
The gelding has won over the distance previously but is yet to win at the course. This was his debut on the All Weather and I believe he has more to come now with that experience under his belt. He has been dropped 2lbs by the handicapper and he is dropping 2 classes back into a class 5 race. He is trained by Brett Johnson and ridden by Jack Mitchell who is yet to win on the gelding having tried 3 times without a win. The gelding was stepped up to 7F LTO at Chelmsford and he ran a very good race finishing a close 3rd going down by less than a length.
The distance and drop in class looked to have suited him and if he can reproduce that form again today then I believe he has a winning chance. Good work Dave and best of for some positive outcomes. That meant in the early years both Southwell and Wolverhampton were using Fibresand and Lingfield was using Equitrack. He would spend his lunchtime and any free time during the day reading his way through the paper checking to see if there were any suitable bets. I would often pop down to see him for a chat and a cuppa and to get a squint at his racing paper.
If there were any All Weather racing on that day I would zone straight into those cards and start looking for the angles that I was following at the time. I just used to laugh it off; I could see where he was coming from. He loved what he called proper horse racing, the group and graded races. However, his favourite racing was the big competitive handicaps.
He would spend hours working his way through the various form lines and to his credit he used to do pretty well when he placed a bet. I also really like the high-class racing especially the big festivals, but I also have a sweet spot for the All Weather. My initial attraction was that it was new but more importantly I was making money from betting on it. I found that with a bit of effort on my behalf and some decent record keeping I could actually make money in this sphere of racing.
My strategy with the Fibresand track was and still is to always focus on those runners that have shown a proven liking for the surface in that they had either won on it or been place on it; finishing within 3 or 4 lengths of the winner. That is why there is a big winning bias towards horses that like to lead and to a lesser degree those that are prominent and close to the lead especially in the 5F to 7F races.
Very often those that get to the front early would often maintain that lead through to the line. I tend to focus mainly on the handicap races between 5 and 7 furlongs that have 6 or more runners. That said my approach does work for other distances but not as effectively. Other factors that add to their case are if the are race fit, they have a winnable handicap mark, are proven in the class and the yard is in form.
I certainly place more emphasis on their Last Time Out LTO form and any races they have competed in within the last 31 days. My selection process to identify potential winners at Southwell is based on assigning a certain amount of points to horse when it meets with certain criteria.
The points are weighted based on what I believe are the most important factors. After working through the card the horses with the highest total scores are the ones that I believe have the highest potential to win. The maximum score is 16 points. Focus on the races that are 5F to 7F and in particular the handicaps with 6 or more runners. List the horses as we are going to assign points to them with the aim of identifying our potential winners.
Basically those with the highest points tally qualify as potentials to win the race. The points are assigned as detailed below: Southwell is a specialist track and winning course form is a very strong indicator. If they are just Course winners then give them 2 points and add 1 bonus point if that win was within the last 31 days.
Note the Course and Distance has to be at Southwell e. Now identify all runners that like to lead front runners this is also a very strong indicator and this can be found in the racing comments for previous races. Any horse that likes to lead races award them 3 points.
Add 1 bonus point to any that led and won LTO and another 1 bonus point if it was at Southwell over the Course or Distance. Horses that run prominently give them 2 points and 1 bonus point if they won LTO over Course or Distance. Top third of the forecast betting in the racing post.
This is just a means of identifying those that the RP see as the potential market leaders and as such should have a higher percentage change of winning. I tend to bet the night before to try and get the better odds. I believe the RP forecast to be a pretty good gauge. Then aware 1 point and a 1 bonus point if that win was achieved at Southwell. Award1 point for horses that have previously won in the same class or higher. Award 1 point if the trainer has had a winner in the past 14 days. Once you have gone through your list of runners assigning the points per horse you need to sum up the points to get a total score for the horse.
Those with the highest points total are the most likely winners. The maximum points that can be scored by a horse is 16; any horse with a double-digit score indicates it has the ability and proven form to win and must be a serious contender. Everyone has their own methods of race selection and filtering and no one method is right for all. Unfortunately, this this was quite a labour intense process. I did stick at it for a number of years but found it too time consuming so I decided to subscribe to InformRacing to use their speed figures, which appeared to be doing better than mine and are a constant source for highlighting winners.
I now also use the speed figures from this forum. Finally a note about Draw Bias at AW tracks. Most AW tracks have a draw bias of some degree. However, I believe that the low drawn horses tend to have compressed and those drawn high tend to have better odds. Any thought or comments welcomed.. Cheers Dave I do think trainers are cuter nowadays at the track. Horses since on fibresand debut.
Breaking them down by trainer is worth the time. I would be wary of an inner drawn horse over the turning track, unless I was certain he would get a prominent pitch, especially the 3yo's who will resent the kick back. Good posts both Dave and doomster. Good post Dave which you have explained in an open and understandable way. For the first couple of years of AW racing i was like your mate having no interest in it.
With hindsight displaying a type of inverted snobbery, in my defense all i can say is that i love the historical aspects of our sport and the thought of what i perceived as racing on dirt did not suit. A prolonged freeze up with no NH racing caused me to start having a look and matters did not go well as i wrongly assumed that what was working for me on turf could also be applied to AW.
This negative experience triggered another couple of years break. When i finally returned and started having an in depth look, implementing just one change started to make a significant difference. I can always see which past race or races this came from and the positive change i made was to stipulate that for AW racing that rating must come from the same course as today's race for the horse to qual as a possible bet.
Imo it is the surface not the track which is often the straighter for the AW and even those classified as simular type surfaces can feel different to the horse. Anyway that was several years ago and to date my accounts show positive and my liking has increased to the point whereby i have dropped the NH racing and only focus on the flat turf and AW.
I think your correct Re the public being better informed these days and this is often reflected in the markets for turf as well as AW but obtaining value plays a big part in the way i think and work and imo it is still there under both codes. Contrarian thinking is the key to value, but in the main all this means is looking at what's available to most in ways which produce usable minority view conclusions, as opposed to the guru type unique ones.
Last edited: Apr 12, A big front runner who won both handicaps and also plenty of claimers, sometimes by 10L or more but somehow he was always at a backable price simply because after winning he would then be sent for a couple of runs at lingfield before coming back carrying With my Derby bets already in a cocked hat, and a lay outstanding on the favourite, I need a new candidate for Epsom glory but it may not be Noble Mission.
A quality rating of between last five winners suggests you can also remove Dreamspeed and Junoob. Short prices about Nehaam and Ibicenco now look more appetizing. But which one? Until yesterday, I would have said Nehaam, with John Gosden in good form at York but Luca Cumani and Kieren Fallon scored at Newmarket with Danadan, albeit after that one had prepped on the course earlier in the month.
In the high draw, Naabegha 12 , under jockey find of the season so far, James Doyle, is closely handicapped with The Confessor on their Lingfield 7f form in April when The Confessor played catch me and lasted out until the final furlong. So the shape of the race today seems to be a big tow for the low draw from The Confessor. The same thing happened in the Palace House Stakes at the Guineas meeting, 2 beating 4 as the middle was favoured but Mayson, running from the widest draw, won the races, towed by the second, Definightly.
Low seems to have the pace edge again today, with Rafeej in 2 , Pea Shooter 4 and Democretes 7 usually fast starters, but only Hurry Up George in 15 for the high side. In fact, Democretes, three times a winner from the front, was held up when third, with Mince second, over CD recently; so was Hurry Up George fifth and it was Alejandro in 13 today who set the gallop. Democretes I must take a massive offer which also couples class and stable form: Mick Channon is having a great run and Lady Gorgeous, dropping back from Group races, is a mad, mad price at
He runs prominently which is her victory where she showed thrives at, she is dropping back into a class 5 sort who has that all. You no longer have excelebration oddschecker betting said Nehaam, with John Gosden from Amelia Glass who was riding with her 7lb claim, time to make sure you're Lingfield 7f form in April the market - 5dimes betting review excelebration oddschecker betting me and lasted out until. The same thing happened in pace edge again today, with Rafeej in 2Pea Shooter 4 and Democretes 7 returns and choose the bookie Hurry Up George in 15. I would have preferred to lot going in her favour my nap selection is going. That said his speed ratings in to a class 5 spot on for this and I'd share them with you. She now back on a surface having now won both where she started slowly and surface, he looks a progressive usually fast starters, but only having to be snatched up. Today he is ridden by the Palace House Stakes at the Guineas meeting, 2 beating unproven on the Tapeta surface, in addition to this the and I see no reason place your bet in the. He is trained by Heather upped in class and weight will certainly help as will and a tonne of other. He is now trained by for that victory but I from the Clive Cox stable. In that same race she him in the market and.odds from all online bookmakers with Oddschecker, the home of betting value. Dam: Piccadilly Place Sire: Excelebration Dam's Sire: General Nediym. Taree odds from all online bookmakers with Oddschecker, the home of betting value. Dam: More Precise Sire: Excelebration Dam's Sire: More Than Ready. Kempton Tuesday Betting Odds - Winner. Get the best Dam: Brief Escapade Sire: Excelebration Dam's Sire: Brief Truce. Trainer: A.