So what we need to watch out for now is swings. Once the market is moving, we keep an eye out for 2 swings and then the retracement. Confused yet? Ok just try and read the rest of this out first then I'll put down examples slowly 1 by 1 to show what I'm saying. In a uptrend: - You look for a swing high, label it, swing 1.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post. The trades are usually to the pip, stops can be small compared to large profit potential. HI y'all - Navin P. Also , we need an Exit strategy here. I would suggest using a Trendline breakout , but as Vic Sperandeo pointed out , in one of his books , many traders draw these lines incorrectly. George F. Regards; Manus Its the method that seems a lot like Ross's Hook.
Very useful. But i want used this strategy with stochastic 5,3,3. Some studies conduct a de-facto validation of IAM projections. For CO 2 emission intensity over —, this resulted in the IAMs projecting declining emission intensities while actual observations showed an increase. For individual technologies in particular solar energy , IAM projections have been conservative regarding deployment rates and cost reductions Creutzig et al.
When metrics are normalized to gross domestic product GDP; as opposed to other normalization metrics such as primary energy , low-emission technology deployment rates used by IAMs over the course of the coming century are shown to be broadly consistent with past trends, but rates of change in emission intensity are typically overestimated Wilson et al. This finding suggests that barriers and enablers other than costs and climate limits play a role in technological change, as also found in the innovation literature Hekkert et al.
One barrier to a greater rate of change in energy systems is that economic growth in the past has been coupled to the use of fossil fuels. Disruptive innovation and socio-technical changes could enable the decoupling of economic growth from a range of environmental drivers, including the consumption of fossil fuels, as represented by 1. This may be relative decoupling due to rebound effects that see financial savings generated by renewable energy used in the consumption of new products and services Jackson and Senker, ; Gillingham et al.
A longer data trend would be needed before stable decoupling can be established. The observed decoupling in and was driven by absolute declines in both coal and oil use since the early s in Europe, in the past seven years in the United States and Australia, and more recently in China Newman, Oil consumption in China is still rising slowly, but absolute decoupling is ongoing in megacities like Beijing Gao and Newman, 49 see Box 4.
In some regions and places, incremental adaptation would not be sufficient to mitigate the impacts of climate change on social-ecological systems see Chapter 3. Transformational adaptation would then be required Bahadur and Tanner, ; Pant et al.
Transformational adaptation refers to actions aiming at adapting to climate change resulting in significant changes in structure or function that go beyond adjusting existing practices Dowd et al. Few studies have assessed the potentially transformative character of adaptation options Pelling et al. Transformational adaptation can be adopted at a large scale, can lead to new strategies in a region or resource system, transform places and potentially shift locations Kates et al.
Some systems might require transformational adaptation at 1. Implementing adaptation policies in anticipation of 1. Transformational adaptation would seek deep and long-term societal changes that influence sustainable development Chung Tiam Fook, ; Few et al. Adaptation requires multidisciplinary approaches integrating scientific, technological and social dimensions. For example, a framework for transformational adaptation and the integration of mitigation and adaptation pathways can transform rural indigenous communities to address risks of climate change and other stressors Thornton and Comberti, In villages in rural Nepal, transformational adaptation has taken place, with villagers changing their agricultural and pastoralist livelihood strategies after years of lost crops due to changing rain patterns and degradation of natural resources Thornton and Comberti, Instead, they are now opening stores, hotels, and tea shops.
With growth of oil production, investments were made for rural development. A later drop in oil production decreased these investments. Alaskan indigenous populations are also dealing with impacts of climate change, such as sea level rise, which is altering their livelihood sources. Transformational adaptation is taking place by changing the energy matrix to renewable energy, in which indigenous people apply their knowledge to achieve environmental, economic, and social benefits Thornton and Comberti, Demand-driven disruptive innovations that emerge as the product of political and social changes across multiple scales can be transformative Seba, ; Christensen et al.
Such innovations would lead to simultaneous, profound changes in behaviour, economies and societies Seba, ; Christensen et al. Rapid socio-technical change has been observed in the solar industry Creutzig et al. Similar changes to socio-ecological systems can stimulate adaptation and mitigation options that lead to more climate-resilient systems Adger et al.
The increase in roof-top solar and energy storage technology as well as the increase in passive housing and net zero-emissions buildings are further examples of such disruptions Green and Newman, b System co-benefits can create the potential for mutually enforcing and demand-driven climate responses Jordan et al. Examples of co-benefits include gender equality, agricultural productivity Nyantakyi-Frimpong and Bezner-Kerr, 71 , reduced indoor air pollution Satterthwaite and Bartlett, 72 , flood buffering Colenbrander et al.
Innovations that disrupt entire systems may leave firms and utilities with stranded assets, as the transition can happen very quickly IPCC, b; Kossoy et al. The presence of multiple barriers and enablers operating in a system implies that rapid change, whether the product of many small changes Termeer et al. Climate responses that are aligned with multiple feasibility dimensions and combine adaptation and mitigation interventions with non-climate benefits can accelerate change and reduce risks and costs Fazey et al.
Also political, social and technological influences on energy transitions, for example, can accelerate them faster than narrow techno-economic analysis suggests is possible Kern and Rogge, 84 , but could also introduce new constraints and risks Geels et al. Disruptive innovation and technological change may play a role in mitigation and in adaptation. The next section assesses mitigation and adaptation options in energy, land and ecosystem, urban and infrastructure and industrial systems.
This section translates this into four main system transitions: energy, land and ecosystem, urban and infrastructure, and industrial system transitions. This section assesses the mitigation, adaptation and carbon dioxide removal options that offer the potential for such change within those systems, based on options identified by Chapter 2 and risks and impacts in Chapter 3.
The section puts more emphasis on those adaptation options Sections 4. They also form the basis for the mitigation and adaptation feasibility assessments in Section 4. This section emphasizes that no single solution or option can enable a global transition to 1. Rather, accelerating change, much of which is already starting or underway, in multiple global systems, simultaneously and at different scales, could provide the impetus for these system transitions.
The feasibility of individual options as well as the potential for synergies and reducing trade-offs will vary according to context and the local enabling conditions. These are explored at a high level in Section 4. Policy packages that bring together multiple enabling conditions can provide building blocks for a strategy to scale up implementation and intervention impacts.
This section discusses the feasibility of mitigation and adaptation options related to the energy system transition. Only options relevant to 1. Socio-technical inertia of energy options for 1. Supply-side mitigation and adaptation options and energy demand-side options, including energy efficiency in buildings and transportation, are discussed in Section 4. All renewable energy options have seen considerable advances over the years since AR5, but solar energy and both onshore and offshore wind energy have had dramatic growth trajectories.
They appear well underway to contribute to 1. The largest growth driver for renewable energy since AR5 has been the dramatic reduction in the cost of solar photovoltaics PV REN21, Small-scale distributed energy projects are being implemented in developed and developing cities where residential and commercial rooftops offer potential for consumers becoming producers called prosumers ACOLA, ; Kotilainen and Saari, Such prosumers could contribute significantly to electricity generation in sun-rich areas like California Kurdgelashvili et al.
The feasibility of renewable energy options depends to a large extent on geophysical characteristics of the area where the option is implemented. However, technological advances and policy instruments make renewable energy options increasingly attractive in other areas. For example, solar PV is deployed commercially in areas with low solar insolation, like northwest Europe Nyholm et al.
Feasibility also depends on grid adaptations e. For regions with high energy needs, such as industrial areas see Section 4. Another important factor affecting feasibility is public acceptance, in particular for wind energy and other large-scale renewable facilities Yenneti and Day, ; Rand and Hoen, ; Gorayeb et al. Research indicates that financial participation and community engagement can be effective in mitigating resistance Brunes and Ohlhorst, ; Rand and Hoen, see Section 4.
Bottom-up studies estimating the use of renewable energy in the future, either at the global or at the national level, are plentiful, especially in the grey literature. It is hotly debated whether a fully renewable energy or electricity system, with or without biomass, is possible Jacobson et al. Scale-up estimates vary with assumptions about costs and technological maturity, as well as local geographical circumstances and the extent of storage used Ghorbani et al. Bioenergy is renewable energy from biomass.
Biofuel is biomass-based energy used in transport. Chapter 2 suggests that pathways limiting warming to 1. Smith et al. Sustainable deployment at such or higher levels envisioned by 1. Some of the disagreement on the sustainable capacity for bioenergy stems from global versus local assessments.
Global assessments may mask local dynamics that exacerbate negative impacts and shortages while at the same time niche contexts for deployment may avoid trade-offs and exploit co-benefits more effectively. In some regions of the world e. Biofuels are a part of the transport sector in some cities and countries, and may be deployed as a mitigation option for aviation, shipping and freight transport see Section 4. Lower emissions and reduced urban air pollution have been achieved there by use of ethanol and biodiesel as fuels Hill et al.
Many scenarios in Chapter 2 and in AR5 Bruckner et al. Even though scalability and speed of scaling of nuclear plants have historically been high in many nations, such rates are currently not achieved anymore. The current deployment pace of nuclear energy is constrained by social acceptability in many countries due to concerns over risks of accidents and radioactive waste management Bruckner et al.
Though comparative risk assessment shows health risks are low per unit of electricity production Hirschberg et al. Such differences in perception explain why the Fukushima incident resulted in a confirmation or acceleration of phasing out nuclear energy in five countries Roh, while 30 other countries have continued using nuclear energy, amongst which 13 are building new nuclear capacity, including China, India and the United Kingdom IAEA, ; Yuan et al. Costs of nuclear power have increased over time in some developed nations, principally due to market conditions where increased investment risks of high-capital expenditure technologies have become significant.
What the costs of nuclear power are and have been is debated in the literature Lovering et al. Countries with liberalized markets that continue to develop nuclear employ de-risking instruments through long-term contracts with guaranteed sale prices Finon and Roques, For instance, the United Kingdom works with public guarantees covering part of the upfront investment costs of newly planned nuclear capacity.
This dynamic differs in countries such as China and South Korea, where monopolistic conditions in the electric system allow for reducing investment risks, deploying series effects and enhancing the engineering capacities of users due to stable relations between the security authorities and builders Schneider et al.
The safety of nuclear plants depends upon the public authorities of each country. However, because accidents affect worldwide public acceptance of this industry, questions have been raised about the risk of economic and political pressures weakening the safety of the plants Finon, ; Budnitz, The growth in electricity storage for renewables has been around grid flexibility resources GFR that would enable several places to source more than half their power from non-hydro renewables Komarnicki, Battery storage has been the main growth feature in energy storage since AR5 Breyer et al.
This appears to the result of significant cost reductions due to mass production for electric vehicles EVs Nykvist and Nilsson, ; Dhar et al. Although costs and technical maturity look increasingly positive, the feasibility of battery storage is challenged by concerns over the availability of resources and the environmental impacts of its production Peters et al. Emerging battery technologies may provide greater efficiency and recharge rates Belmonte et al. Research and demonstration of energy storage in the form of thermal and chemical systems continues, but large-scale commercial systems are rare Pardo et al.
Renewably derived synthetic liquid like methanol and ammonia and gas like methane and hydrogen are increasingly being seen as a feasible storage options for renewable energy producing fuel for use in industry during times when solar and wind are abundant Bruce et al. The use of electric vehicles as a form of storage has been modelled and evaluated as an opportunity, and demonstrations are emerging Dhar et al. Climate change has started to disrupt electricity generation and, if climate change adaptation options are not considered, it is predicted that these disruptions will be lengthier and more frequent Jahandideh-Tehrani et al.
Adaptation would both secure vulnerable infrastructure and ensure the necessary generation capacity Minville et al. The literature shows high agreement that climate change impacts need to be planned for in the design of any kind of infrastructure, especially in the energy sector Nierop, , including interdependencies with other sectors that require electricity to function, including water, data, telecommunications and transport Fryer, Assessments of energy infrastructure adaptation, while limited, emphasize the need for redundancy Liu et al.
Hybrid renewables-based power systems with non-hydro capacity, such as with high-penetration wind generation, could provide the required system flexibility Canales et al. Overall, there is high agreement that hybrid systems, taking advantage of an array of sources and time of use strategies, can help make electricity generation more resilient Parkinson and Djilali, , given that energy security standards are in place Almeida Prado et al.
Interactions between water and energy are complex IEA, g Water scarcity patterns and electricity disruptions will differ across regions. There is high agreement that mitigation and adaptation options for thermal electricity generation if that remains fitted with CCS need to consider increasing water shortages, taking into account other factors such as ambient water resources and demand changes in irrigation water Hayashi et al.
Increasing the efficiency of power plants can reduce emissions and water needs Eisenack and Stecker, ; van Vliet et al. The technological, economic, social and institutional feasibility of efficiency improvements is high, but insufficient to limit temperature rise to 1. In addition, a number of options for water cooling management systems have been proposed, such as hydraulic measures Eisenack and Stecker, and alternative cooling technologies Chandel et al.
There is high agreement on the technological and economic feasibility of these technologies, as their absence can severely impact the functioning of the power plant as well as safety and security standards. This section focuses on CCS in the fossil-fuelled power sector; Section 4. Section 2. Such modelling suggests that CCS in the power sector can contribute to cost-effective achievement of emission reduction requirements for limiting warming to 1. CCS may also offer employment and political advantages for fossil fuel-dependent economies Kern et al.
Since , two CCS projects in the power sector capture 2. The technological maturity of CO 2 capture options in the power sectors has improved considerably Abanades et al. Storage capacity estimates vary greatly, but Section 2. Scott et al. Regional availability of this may not be sufficient, and it requires efforts to have this storage and the corresponding infrastructure available at the necessary rates and times de Coninck and Benson, A paper reviewing 42 studies on public perception of CCS Seigo et al.
The technology itself mattered less than the social context of the project. Though insights on communication of CCS projects to the general public and inhabitants of the area around the CO 2 storage sites have been documented over the years, project stakeholders are not consistently implementing these lessons, although some projects have observed good practices Ashworth et al.
CCS in the power sector is hardly being realized at scale, mainly because the incremental costs of capture, and the development of transport and storage infrastructures are not sufficiently compensated by market or government incentives IEA, c EOR is a technique that uses CO 2 to mobilize more oil out of depleting oil fields, leading to additional CO 2 emissions by combusting the additionally recovered oil Cooney et al.
This section assesses the feasibility of mitigation and adaptation options related to land use and ecosystems. Land transitions are grouped around agriculture and food, ecosystems and forests, and coastal systems. Some high-latitude regions may benefit from the combined effects of elevated CO 2 and temperature because their average temperatures are below optimal temperature for crops.
In both cases there are consequences for food production and quality Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 3 on Food Security , conservation agriculture, irrigation, food wastage, bioenergy and the use of novel technologies. Food production and quality. Increased temperatures, including 1.
There is medium agreement that elevated CO 2 concentrations can change food composition, with implications for nutritional security Taub et al. These production losses could be lowered if adaptation measures are taken Challinor et al.
Adaptation options can help ensure access to sufficient, quality food. Such options include conservation agriculture, improved livestock management, increasing irrigation efficiency, agroforestry and management of food loss and waste.
Complementary adaptation and mitigation options, for example, the use of climate services Section 4. Conservation agriculture CA is a soil management approach that reduces the disruption of soil structure and biotic processes by minimising tillage. A recent meta-analysis showed that no-till practices work well in water-limited agroecosystems when implemented jointly with residue retention and crop rotation, but when used independently, may decrease yields in other situations Pittelkow et al.
Additional climate adaptations include adjusting planting times and crop varietal selection and improving irrigation efficiency. CA can also help build adaptive capacity medium evidence, medium agreement H. CA practices can also raise soil carbon and therefore remove CO 2 from the atmosphere Aguilera et al. However, CA adoption can be constrained by inadequate institutional arrangements and funding mechanisms Harvey et al. Sustainable intensification of agriculture consists of agricultural systems with increased production per unit area but with management of the range of potentially adverse impacts on the environment Pretty and Bharucha, Sustainable intensification can increase the efficiency of inputs and enhance health and food security Ramankutty et al.
Livestock management. Livestock are responsible for more GHG emissions than all other food sources. Emissions are caused by feed production, enteric fermentation, animal waste, land-use change and livestock transport and processing. Some estimates indicate that livestock supply chains could account for 7. Cattle beef, milk are responsible for about two-thirds of that total, largely due to methane emissions resulting from rumen fermentation Gerber et al.
Despite ongoing gains in livestock productivity and volumes, the increase of animal products in global diets is restricting overall agricultural efficiency gains because of inefficiencies in the conversion of agricultural primary production e. There is increasing agreement that overall emissions from food systems could be reduced by targeting the demand for meat and other livestock products, particularly where consumption is higher than suggested by human health guidelines. Adjusting diets to meet nutritional targets could bring large co-benefits, through GHG mitigation and improvements in the overall efficiency of food systems Erb et al.
How the role of dietary shift could change in 1. Adaptation of livestock systems can include a suite of strategies such as using different breeds and their wild relatives to develop a genetic pool resilient to climatic shocks and longer-term temperature shifts Thornton and Herrero, , improving fodder and feed management Bell et al. Most interventions that improve the productivity of livestock systems and enhance adaptation to climate changes would also reduce the emissions intensity of food production, with significant co-benefits for rural livelihoods and the security of food supplies Gerber et al.
Whether such reductions in emission intensity result in lower or higher absolute GHG emissions depends on overall demand for livestock products, indicating the relevance of integrating supply-side with demand-side measures within food security objectives Gerber et al. Transitions in livestock production systems e. Overall, there is high agreement that farm strategies that integrate mixed crop—livestock systems can improve farm productivity and have positive sustainability outcomes Havet et al.
Shifting towards mixed crop—livestock systems is estimated to reduce agricultural adaptation costs to 0. Evidence from various regions supports this Thornton and Herrero, , although the feasible scale varies between regions and systems, as well as being moderated by overall demand in specific food products.
In Australia, some farmers have successfully shifted to crop—livestock systems where, each year, they allocate land and forage resources in response to climate and price trends Bell et al. However, there can be some unintended negative impacts of such integration, including increased burdens on women, higher requirements of capital, competing uses of crop residues e.
Finally, the feasibility of improving livestock efficiency is dependent on socio-cultural context and acceptability: there remain significant issues around widespread adoption of crossbred animals, especially by smallholders Thornton et al. Irrigation efficiency. While increasing irrigation system efficiency is necessary, there is mixed evidence on how to enact efficiency improvements Fader et al.
Physical and technical strategies include building large-scale reservoirs or dams, renovating or deepening irrigation channels, building on-farm rainwater harvesting structures, lining ponds, channels and tanks to reduce losses through percolation and evaporation, and investing in small infrastructure such as sprinkler or drip irrigation sets Varela-Ortega et al.
Each strategy has differing costs and benefits relating to unique biophysical, social, and economic contexts. Also, increasing irrigation efficiency may foster higher dependency on irrigation, resulting in a heightened sensitivity to climate that may be maladaptive in the long term Lindoso et al. Improvements in irrigation efficiency would need to be supplemented with ancillary activities, such as shifting to crops that require less water and improving soil and moisture conservation Fader et al.
Currently, the feasibility of improving irrigation efficiency is constrained by issues of replicability across scale and sustainability over time Burney and Naylor, , institutional barriers and inadequate market linkages Pittock et al. Growing evidence suggests that investing in behavioural shifts towards using irrigation technology such as micro-sprinklers or drip irrigation, is an effective and quick adaptation strategy Varela-Ortega et al.
While improving irrigation efficiency is technically feasible R. Fishman et al. The integration of trees and shrubs into crop and livestock systems, when properly managed, can potentially restrict soil erosion, facilitate water infiltration, improve soil physical properties and buffer against extreme events Lasco et al. There is medium evidence and high agreement on the feasibility of agroforestry practices that enhance productivity, livelihoods and carbon storage Lusiana et al.
Long-term studies examining the success of agroforestry, however, are rare Coe et al. The extent to which agroforestry practices employed at the farm level could be scaled up globally while satisfying growing food demand is relatively unknown. Agroforestry adoption has been relatively low and uneven Jacobi et al. Managing food loss and waste. The way food is produced, processed and transported strongly influences GHG emissions.
Food wastage is a combination of food loss — the decrease in mass and nutritional value of food due to poor infrastructure, logistics, and lack of storage technologies and management — and food waste that derives from inappropriate human consumption that leads to food spoilage associated with inferior quality or overproduction. Food wastage could lead to an increase in emissions estimated to 1.
Decreasing food wastage has high mitigation and adaptation potential and could play an important role in land transitions towards 1. There is medium agreement that a combination of individual—institutional behaviour Refsgaard and Magnussen, ; Thornton and Herrero, , and improved technologies and management Lin et al. Institutional behaviour depends on investment and policies, which if adequately addressed could enable mitigation and adaptation co-benefits in a relatively short time.
Novel technologies. New molecular biology tools have been developed that can lead to fast and precise genome modification De Souza et al. Such genome editing tools may moderately assist in mitigation and adaptation of agriculture in relation to climate changes, elevated CO 2 , drought and flooding DaMatta et al.
These tools could contribute to developing new plant varieties that can adapt to warming of 1. However, biosafety concerns and government regulatory systems can be a major barrier to the use of these tools as this increases the time and cost of turning scientific discoveries into ready applicable technologies Andow and Zwahlen, ; Maghari and Ardekani, The strategy of reducing enteric methane emissions by ruminants through the development of inhibitors or vaccines has already been attempted with some successes, although the potential for application at scale and in different situations remains uncertain.
A vaccine could potentially modify the microbiota of the rumen and be applicable even in extensive grazing systems by reducing the presence of methanogenic micro-organisms Wedlock et al. Selective breeding for lower-emitting ruminants is becoming rapidly feasible, offering small but cumulative emissions reductions without requiring substantial changes in farm systems Pickering et al.
Technological innovation in culturing marine and freshwater micro and macro flora has significant potential to expand food, fuel and fibre resources, and could reduce impacts on land and conventional agriculture Greene et al. Technological innovation could assist in increased agricultural efficiency e. Technological and associated management improvements may be ways to increase the efficiency of contemporary agriculture to help produce enough food to cope with population increases in a 1.
Ecosystem restoration. Biomass stocks in tropical, subtropical, temperate and boreal biomes currently hold , , , Gt CO 2 , respectively. Conservation and restoration can enhance these natural carbon sinks Erb et al. Recent studies explore options for conservation, restoration and improved land management estimating up to 23 GtCO 2 Griscom et al. Mitigation potentials are dominated by reduced rates of deforestation, reforestation and forest management, and concentrated in tropical regions Houghton, ; Canadell and Schulze, ; Grace et al.
Variation of costs in projects aiming to reduce emissions from deforestation is high when considering opportunity and transaction costs Dang Phan et al. However, the focus on forests raises concerns of cross-biome leakage medium evidence, low agreement Popp et al. Reducing rates of deforestation constrains the land available for agriculture and grazing, with trade-offs between diets, higher yields and food prices Erb et al.
Forest restoration and conservation are compatible with biodiversity Rey Benayas et al. There is low agreement on whether climate impacts will reverse mitigation benefits of restoration Le Page et al. Emerging regional assessments offer new perspectives for upscaling. While there are indications that land tenure has a positive impact Sunderlin et al.
Local benefits, especially for indigenous communities, will only be accrued if land tenure is respected and legally protected, which is not often the case Sunderlin et al. Although payments for reduced rates of deforestation may benefit the poor, the most vulnerable populations could have limited, uneven access Atela et al.
Community-based adaptation CbA. There is medium evidence and high agreement for the use of CbA. The specific actions to take will depend upon the location, context, and vulnerability of the specific community. The integration of CbA with ecosystems-based adaptation EbA has been increasingly promoted, especially in efforts to alleviate poverty Mannke, ; Reid, Despite the potential and advantages of both CbA and EbA, including knowledge exchange, information access and increased social capital and equity; institutional and governance barriers still constitute a challenge for local adaptation efforts Wright et al.
Wetland management. In wetland ecosystems, temperature rise has direct and irreversible impacts on species functioning and distribution, ecosystem equilibrium and services, and second-order impacts on local livelihoods see Chapter 3, Section 3.
The structure and function of wetland systems are changing due to climate change. Wetland management strategies, including adjustments in infrastructural, behavioural, and institutional practices have clear implications for adaptation Colloff et al. Despite international initiatives on wetland restoration and management through the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, policies have not been effective Finlayson, ; Finlayson et al.
Institutional reform, such as flexible, locally relevant governance, drawing on principles of adaptive co-management, and multi-stakeholder participation becomes increasingly necessary for effective wetland management Capon et al.
Managing coastal stress. Particularly to allow for the landward relocation of coastal ecosystems under a transition to a 1. While the feasibility of the solutions is high, they are expensive to scale robust evidence, medium agreement. There is low evidence and high agreement that reducing the impact of local stresses Halpern et al.
Approaches to reducing local stresses are considered feasible, cost-effective and highly scalable. Ecosystem resilience may be increased through alternative livelihoods e. These options enjoy high levels of feasibility yet are expensive, which stands in the way of scalability robust evidence, medium agreement Hiwasaki et al.
Working with coastal communities has the potential for improving the resilience of coastal ecosystems. Combined with the advantages of using indigenous knowledge to guide transitions, solutions can be more effective when undertaken in partnership with local communities, cultures, and knowledge See Box 4. Restoration of coastal ecosystems and fisheries. Marine restoration is expensive compared to terrestrial restoration, and the survival of projects is currently low, with success depending on the ecosystem and site, rather than the size of the financial investment Bayraktarov et al.
Mangrove replanting shows evidence of success globally, with numerous examples of projects that have established forests Kimball et al. Efforts with reef-building corals have been attempted with a low level of success Bayraktarov et al. Technologies to help re-establish coral communities are limited Rinkevich, , as are largely untested disruptive technologies e.
Current technologies also have trouble scaling given the substantial costs and investment required Bayraktarov et al. However, this does not adequately account for post-depositional processes and could overestimate removal potentials, subject to a risk of reversal. Seagrass beds will thus not contribute significantly to enabling 1. There will be approximately 70 million additional urban residents every year through to the middle part of this century UN DESA, The majority of these new urban citizens will reside in small and medium-sized cities in low- and middle-income countries Cross-Chapter Box 13 in Chapter 5.
The combination of urbanization and economic and infrastructure development could account for an additional GtCO 2 by Bai et al. However, urban systems can harness the mega-trends of urbanization, digitalization, financialization and growing sub-national commitment to smart cities, green cities, resilient cities, sustainable cities and adaptive cities, for the type of transformative change required by 1. There is a growing number of urban climate responses driven by cost-effectiveness, development, work creation and inclusivity considerations Solecki et al.
In addition, low-carbon cities could reduce the need to deploy carbon dioxide removal CDR and solar radiation modification SRM Fink, ; Thomson and Newman, Cities are also places in which the risks associated with warming of 1. Unless adaptation and mitigation efforts are designed around the need to decarbonize urban societies in the developed world and provide low-carbon solutions to the needs of growing urban populations in developing countries, they will struggle to deliver the pace or scale of change required by 1.
The pace and scale of urban climate responses can be enhanced by attention to social equity including gender equity , urban ecology Brown and McGranahan, ; Wachsmuth et al. The long-lived urban transport, water and energy systems that will be constructed in the next three decades to support urban populations in developing countries and to retrofit cities in developed countries will have to be different to those built in Europe and North America in the 20th century, if they are to support the required transitions Freire et al.
Recent literature identifies energy, infrastructure, appliances, urban planning, transport and adaptation options as capable of facilitating systemic change. It is these aspects of the urban system that are discussed below and from which options in Section 4. Urban economies tend to be more energy intensive than national economies due to higher levels of per capita income, mobility and consumption Kennedy et al.
However, some urban systems have begun decoupling development from the consumption of fossil fuel-powered energy through energy efficiency, renewable energy and locally managed smart grids Dodman, ; Freire et al. The rapidly expanding cities of Africa and Asia, where energy poverty currently undermines adaptive capacity Westphal et al. This will require strengthened energy governance in these countries Eberhard et al. Where renewable energy displaces paraffin, wood fuel or charcoal feedstocks in informal urban settlements, it provides the co-benefits of improved indoor air quality, reduced fire risk and reduced deforestation, all of which can enhance adaptive capacity and strengthen demand for this energy Newham and Conradie, ; Winkler, ; Kennedy et al.
Kuramochi et al. Several examples of net zero energy in buildings are now available Wells et al. In existing buildings, refurbishment enables energy saving Semprini et al. Reducing the energy embodied in building materials provides further energy and GHG savings Cabeza et al. The United Nations Environment Programme UNEP3 3 estimates that improving embodied energy, thermal performance, and direct energy use of buildings can reduce emissions by 1.
Further increasing the energy efficiency of appliances and lighting, heating and cooling offers the potential for further savings Parikh and Parikh, ; Garg et al. Smart technology, drawing on the internet of things IoT and building information modelling, offers opportunities to accelerate energy efficiency in buildings and cities Moreno-Cruz and Keith, ; Hoy, see also Section 4.
Urban form impacts demand for energy Sims et al. Significant reductions in car use are associated with dense, pedestrianized cities and towns and medium-density transit corridors Newman and Kenworthy, ; Newman et al. Combined dense urban forms and new mass transit systems in Shanghai and Beijing have yielded less car use Gao and Newman, see Box 4. Compact cities also create the passenger density required to make public transport more financially viable Rode et al. Similarly, the spatial organization of urban energy influenced the trajectories of urban development in cities as diverse as Hong Kong, Bengaluru and Maputo Broto, The informal settlements of middle- and low-income cities, where urban density is more typically associated with a range of water- and vector-borne health risks, may provide a notable exception to the adaptive advantages of urban density Mitlin and Satterthwaite, ; Lilford et al.
Scenarios consistent with 1. In one analysis the phasing out of fossil fuel passenger vehicle sales by — was identified as a benchmark for aligning with 1. Reducing emissions from transport has lagged the power sector Sims et al. The global transport sector could reduce 4. This is significantly more than is predicted by integrated assessment models UNEP, b Such a transition depends on cities that enable modal shifts and avoided journeys and that provide incentives for uptake of improved fuel efficiency and changes in urban design that encourage walkable cities, non-motorized transport and shorter commuter distances IEA, a; Mittal et al.
In at least 4 African cities, 43 Asian cities and 54 Latin American cities, transit-oriented development TOD , has emerged as an organizing principle for urban growth and spatial planning Colenbrander et al. Cities pursuing sustainable transport benefit from reduced air pollution, congestion and road fatalities and are able to harness the relationship between transport systems, urban form, urban energy intensity and social cohesion Goodwin and Van Dender, ; Newman and Kenworthy, ; Wee, Technology and electrification trends since AR5 make carbon-efficient urban transport easier Newman et al.
Adaptation to a 1. Building codes and technology standards for public lighting, including traffic lights Beccali et al. Building codes can support the convergence to zero emissions from buildings Wells et al. The application of building codes and standards for 1. In all countries, building codes can be undermined by industry interests and can be maladaptive if they prevent buildings or land use from evolving to reduce climate impacts Eisenberg, ; Shapiro, The deficit in building codes and standards in middle-income and developing-country cities need not be a constraint to more energy-efficient and resilient buildings Tait and Euston-Brown, For example, the relatively high price that poor households pay for unreliable and at times dangerous household energy in African cities has driven the uptake of renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies in the absence of regulations or fiscal incentives Eberhard et al.
The electrification of urban systems, including transport, has shown global progress since AR5 IEA, a; Kennedy et al. High growth rates are now appearing in electric vehicles Figure 4. Source: IEA, In high-income cities there is medium evidence for the decoupling of car use and wealth since AR5 Newman, In cities where private vehicle ownership is expected to increase, less carbon-intensive fuel sources and reduced car journeys will be necessary as well as electrification of all modes of transport Mittal et al.
An estimated cities globally have operational bike-share schemes E. Advances in information and communication technologies ICT offer cities the chance to reduce urban transport congestion and fuel consumption by making better use of the urban vehicle fleet through car sharing, driverless cars and coordinated public transport, especially when electrified Wee, ; Glazebrook and Newman, International transport hubs, including airports and ports, and the associated mobility of people are major economic contributors to most large cities even while under the governance of national authorities and international legislation.
Shipping, freight and aviation systems have grown rapidly, and little progress has been made since AR5 on replacing fossil fuels, though some trials are continuing Zhang, ; Bouman et al. Aviation emissions do not yet feature in IAMs Bows-Larkin, , but could be reduced by between a third and two-thirds through energy efficiency measures and operational changes Dahlmann et al.
Some progress has been made on the use of electricity in planes and shipping Grewe et al. Studies indicate that biofuels are the most viable means of decarbonizing intercontinental travel, given their technical characteristics, energy content and affordability Wise et al. The lifecycle emissions of bio-based jet fuels and marine fuels can be considerable Cox et al.
In recent years the potential for transport to use synfuels, such as ethanol, methanol, methane, ammonia and hydrogen, created from renewable electricity and CO 2 , has gained momentum but has not yet demonstrated benefits on a scale consistent with 1. Low-emission marine fuels could simultaneously address sulphur and black carbon issues in ports and around waterways and accelerate the electrification of all large ports Bouman et al.
Urban land use influences energy intensity, risk exposure and adaptive capacity Carter et al. Accordingly, urban land-use planning can contribute to climate mitigation and adaptation Parnell, ; Francesch-Huidobro et al. Adaptation plans can reduce exposure to urban flood risk which, in a 1. Section 3. Cities can reduce their risk exposure by considering investment in infrastructure and buildings that are more resilient to warming of 1. Not all adaptation plans are reported as effective Measham et al.
In cases where adaptation planning may further marginalize poor citizens, either through limited local control over adaptation priorities or by displacing impacts onto poorer communities, successful urban risk management would need to consider factors such as justice, equity, and inclusive participation, as well as recognize the political economy of adaptation Archer, ; Shi et al.
Urban water supply and wastewater treatment is energy intensive and currently accounts for significant GHG emissions Nair et al. Cities can integrate sustainable water resource management and the supply of water services in ways that support mitigation, adaptation and development through waste water recycling and storm water diversion Xue et al.
Governance and finance challenges complicate balancing sustainable water supply and rising urban demand, particularly in low-income cities Bettini et al. Urban surface-sealing with impervious materials affects the volume and velocity of runoff and flooding during intense rainfall Skougaard Kaspersen et al.
Challenges remain for managing intense rainfall events that are reported to be increasing in frequency and intensity in some locations Ziervogel et al. This risk falls disproportionately on women and poor people in cities Mitlin, ; Chu et al. Nexus approaches that highlight urban areas as socio-ecological systems can support policy coherence Rasul and Sharma, and sustainable urban livelihoods Biggs et al. The water—energy—food WEF nexus is especially important to growing urban populations Tacoli et al.
Integrating and promoting green urban infrastructure including street trees, parks, green roofs and facades, and water features into city planning can be difficult Leck et al. Realizing climate benefits from urban green infrastructure sometimes requires a city-region perspective Wachsmuth et al. Where the urban impact on ecological systems in and beyond the city is appreciated, the potential for transformative change exists Soderlund and Newman, ; Ziervogel et al.
Milan, Italy, a city with deliberate urban greening policies, planted 10, hectares of new forest and green areas over the last two decades Sanesi et al. The accelerated growth of urban trees, relative to rural trees, in several regions of the world is expected to decrease tree longevity Pretzsch et al.
Industry consumes about one-third of global final energy and contributes, directly and indirectly, about one-third of global GHG emissions IPCC, b If the increase in global mean temperature is to remain under 1. Moreover, the consequences of warming of 1. This section will first briefly discuss the limited literature on adaptation options for industry. Subsequently, new literature since AR5 on the feasibility of industrial mitigation options will be discussed.
Research assessing adaptation actions by industry indicates that only a small fraction of corporations has developed adaptation measures. Studies of adaptation in the private sector remain limited Agrawala et al. This knowledge gap is particularly evident for medium-sized enterprises and in low- and middle-income nations Surminski, Depending on the industrial sector, mitigation consistent with 1.
Some of the choices for mitigation options and routes for GHG-intensive industry are discrete and potentially subject to path dependency: if an industry goes one way e. In the context of rising demand for construction, an increasing share of industrial production may be based in developing countries N. Li et al. Overview of different mitigation options potentially consistent with limiting warming to 1. Heat generation through electricity Partial only electrified heat generation Electrified heat and hydrogen generation Carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage Possible for process emissions and energy.
Isolated efficiency implementation in energy-intensive industries is a necessary but insufficient condition for deep emission reductions Napp et al. Various options specific to different industries are available. In general, their feasibility depends on lowering capital costs and raising awareness and expertise Wesseling et al. General-purpose technologies, such as ICT, and energy management tools can improve the prospects of energy efficiency in industry see Section 4.
Cross-sector technologies and practices, which play a role in all industrial sectors including small- and medium-sized enterprises SMEs and non-energy intensive industry, also offer potential for considerable energy efficiency improvements. Waste heat recovery from industry has substantial potential for energy efficiency and emission reduction Forman et al.
Low awareness and competition from other investments limit the feasibility of such options Napp et al. Recycling materials and developing a circular economy can be institutionally challenging, as it requires advanced capabilities Henry et al.
Material substitution and CO 2 storage options are under development, for example, the use of algae and renewable energy for carbon fibre production, which could become a net sink of CO 2 Arnold et al. Bio-based feedstock processes could be seen as part of the circular materials economy see section above. In several sectors, bio-based feedstocks would leave the production process of materials relatively untouched, and a switch would not affect the product quality, making the option more attractive.
However, energy requirements for processing bio-based feedstocks are often high, costs are also still higher, and the emissions over the full life cycle, both upstream and downstream, could be significant Wesseling et al. Bio-based feedstocks may put pressure on natural resources by increasing land demand by biodiversity impacts beyond bioenergy demand for electricity, transport and buildings Slade et al. Electrification of manufacturing processes would constitute a significant technological challenge and would entail a more disruptive innovation in industry than bio-based or CCS options to get to very low or zero emissions, except potentially in steel-making Philibert, Electrification of manufacturing would require further technological development in industry, as well as an ample supply of cost-effective low-emission electricity Philibert, Low-emission hydrogen can be produced by natural gas with CCS, by electrolysis of water powered by zero-emission electricity, or potentially in the future by generation IV nuclear reactors.
CO 2 capture in industry is generally considered more feasible than CCS in the power sector Section 4. Some industries, in particular cement, emit CO 2 as inherent process emissions and can therefore not reduce emissions to zero without CC U S. CO 2 stacks in some industries have a high economic and technical feasibility for CO 2 capture as the CO 2 concentration in the exhaust gases is relatively high IPCC, b; Leeson et al.
The heterogeneity of industrial production processes might point to the need for specific institutional arrangements to incentivize industrial CCS Mikunda et al. Whether carbon dioxide utilization CCU can contribute to limiting warming to 1. Review studies indicate that CO 2 utilization in industry has a small role to play in limiting warming to 1. However, new developments could make CCU more feasible, in particular in CO 2 use as a feedstock for carbon-based materials that would isolate CO 2 from the atmosphere for a long time, and in low-cost, low-emission electricity that would make the energy use of CO 2 capture more sustainable.
The conversion of CO 2 to fuels using zero-emission electricity has a lower technical, economic and environmental feasibility than direct CO 2 capture and storage from industry Abanades et al. This section assesses overarching adaptation options —specific solutions from which actors can choose and make decisions to reduce climate vulnerability and build resilience.
We examine their feasibility in the context of transitions of energy, land and ecosystem, urban and infrastructure, and industrial systems here, and further in Section 4. These options can contribute to creating an enabling environment for adaptation see Table 4. DRM is a process for designing, implementing and evaluating strategies, policies and measures to improve the understanding of disaster risk, and promoting improvement in disaster preparedness, response and recovery IPCC, There is increased demand to integrate DRM and adaptation Howes et al.
Risks associated with 1. As an alternative to traditional indemnity-based insurance, index-based micro-crop and livestock insurance programmes have been rolled out in regions with less developed insurance markets Akter et al. Social protection programmes include cash and in-kind transfers to protect poor and vulnerable households from the impact of economic shocks, natural disasters and other crises World Bank, b , and can build generic adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability when combined with a comprehensive climate risk management approach medium evidence , medium agreement Devereux, ; Lemos et al.
Educational adaptation options motivate adaptation through building awareness Butler et al. Climate change will exacerbate existing health challenges Chapter 3, Section 3. Options for enhancing current health services include providing access to safe water and improved sanitation, enhancing access to essential services such as vaccination, and developing or strengthening integrated surveillance systems WHO, Combining these with iterative management can facilitate effective adaptation medium evidence , high agreement.
There is medium evidence and high agreement that indigenous knowledge is critical for adaptation, underpinning adaptive capacity through the diversity of indigenous agro-ecological and forest management systems, collective social memory, repository of accumulated experience and social networks Hiwasaki et al. Indigenous knowledge is threatened by acculturation, dispossession of land rights and land grabbing, rapid environmental changes, colonization and social change, resulting in increasing vulnerability to climate change — which climate policy can exacerbate if based on limited understanding of indigenous worldviews Thornton and Manasfi, ; Ford, ; Nakashima et al.
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