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This came after a big miss in German PMI numbers. Retail Sales are a measure of all the sales in the retail sector for a specific period. It is considered as a leading indicator. Retail Sales tracks the rate of change of sales a percentage. Why are retail sales an important indicator? The answer is due to consumer spending.
The numbers differ from country to country. Retail Sales can show us when economic conditions change. It gives us insight into when interest rates or inflation are too high or too low. When interest rates go up, people pay more for their mortgages and debt. This affects their disposable income. This also affects disposable income. When consumers start spending less, we can expect a contraction in economic growth.
There are many confidence and sentiment indicators for consumers and businesses. There are various indicators for different countries:. These indicators survey consumers and businesses. The surveys ask consumers and businesses about their future economic expectations. Confidence and Sentiment are essential leading indicators. Sentiment is a key driver of an economy.
When consumer and businesses are confident, they tend to spend and invest more. If they are negative about the future economy, they save and refrain from borrowing. Sentiment indicators are more and less critical in various business cycles. When an economy is expanding, we expect sentiment to be good. These indicators are useful when gauging possible shifts in the business cycle.
Higher rates and inflation at an economic peak should show up in the sentiment. Consequently, significant deviations in sentiment indicators can provide excellent trading opportunities. The Stock Market is considered one of the most significant leading indicators. Usually, stock markets start to rise before an economic recovery. They also begin to decline before an economy goes into recession. This is not always the case though.
According to Bloomberg , traders should not confuse the stock market with the economy. Furthermore, they explain that stock markets fall and rise for numerous reasons. However, Stock market fluctuations are not always in sync with the health of the economy. Equities are very useful for traders as a gauge of risk sentiment.
When news or events cause uncertainty it can cause traders to worry. This causes them to move their capital away from risky assets. During these times investors move money into safer assets. This is called risk-off sentiment. When news or events cause optimism in markets then traders want to take more risk. This means they move capital away from safety and into riskier assets.
This is called risk-on sentiment. Equities are considered as risky assets. Stocks are one of the first asset classes that react to risk. Reactions in global equities can precede moves in risk-correlated currencies. This makes Stock Markets an essential indicator for Forex Traders. Industrial Production is an essential measure of industry activity within an economy. Industrial Production YY compares the change in industrial output from one year to another. Industrial companies employ thousands of people.
Industrial production is a key input of GDP and economic performance. As a result, Central Banks closely watch these numbers. Primarily due to its implications for growth and inflation. Industrial Production is considered as both a coincident and leading indicator.
This indicator can provide details about the current state and future direction of an economy. The CFTC report shows the total positioning of futures contracts. It includes data for a broad range of markets. The report covers futures positions for three different market participants. This means the data has a three-day delay. The main benefit of the report is seeing the net positioning. This means seeing when there are net short or net long positions on currencies. When markets have record net positions on a currency then we need to pay attention.
Extreme net short or long positions usually do not stay that way for long. A few weeks after the net short positioning the Kiwi dollar started a short squeeze. It rallied over pips against the Yen. Eventually, extreme positions will either reverse or take a breather. This provides traders with an edge in the market. Imaging that the market has an extreme net short position on a currency. The extreme positioning should be a warning sign to be careful with short trades. This is because it can take weeks or months to unwind.
Therefore make sure to use it as a rough gauge and not a crystal ball. What do commodities have to do with forex trading? Commodity data can have volatile effects on currencies. Certain countries are major producers of specific commodities. As a result, fluctuating commodity prices can impact certain economies. Let us look at oil as an example. This is also true for other commodities as well. When Oil prices fluctuate, it affects the Canadian economy. Another example is Australia and base metals.
They are also the fourth largest exporter of copper ore. New Zealand Is another excellent example. The biggest of these are dairy products. This means dairy prices can have an impact on the Kiwi Dollar. It is essential to keep track of commodity prices when planning trades.
If oil prices are falling, it might not be a good idea to buy the Canadian dollar. Bond markets are used as a leading indicator. Many people use Bonds to predict economic conditions. When bond yields fall the currency usually fall as well.
A rise in bond yields normally supports the respective currency. This occurs when short-term yields surpass longer-term yields. It is referred to as an inverted yield curve. According to Forbes , the , and inverted yield curves are a good example. They explain that recessions occurred within 1 to 3 years in all three these examples. As always there is nothing guaranteed in trading. Similarly, Inverted yield curves are not a magic eight ball.
But inverted yield curves do not necessarily always lead to recessions. Therefore, they are just indicators letting us know that we need to pay attention. Housing is an integral part of any economy. Consequently, the demand for housing can tell us a lot about consumer sentiment.
When interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing goes up. This means mortgages become more expensive. As interest rate rise consumers find it more difficult to invest in real estate. A decline in Housing Starts is often preceded by recessions. A rise in the housing market during recessions often point to economic recoveries. Never treat economic indicators like a crystal ball. In short, no indicator will give you guaranteed success. These indicators are intended to be used as part of a Fundamental method.
Therefore, traders need to look at these data points in the bigger picture. Building a bias for a currency is like building a puzzle. All the pieces are necessary to see the big picture. Evaluate economic indicators as part of the broader economy. It all depends on whether they are expecting something or not. In this article, we learned about the top 15 economic indicators.
We also saw why each of them are important for currency traders. Do not let all of this information discourage or overwhelm you. It will take time to get to know these indicators better. There are a few ways that you can learn to incorporate these indicators in your trading. These steps will get you off to a good start. The important thing is to take your time. In time the process of keeping track of these various indicators will become autonomous.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to let us know in the comment box below. Cancel in two clicks. Financial Source is a brand name of Trading Media Ltd. UK company number: Skip to content. Develop your understanding of trading economic news events with 15 influential economic indicators. Share on facebook Facebook. Share on twitter Twitter. Share on linkedin LinkedIn. Author Recent Posts.
Follow me. Additionally, it is imperative that you have a financial calendar that has central bank information. Nothing will move a currency pair like a surprise change in monetary policy. There are a plethora of great financial calendars, on reputable websites such as Reuters, Bloomberg and Forex Factory.
If you want to customize one, you can enter the information yourself on a spreadsheet to make sure you are capturing all the information that you deem crucial to your trading decisions. While central bank meetings and political events generate volatility occasionally, scheduled monthly economic data consistently provides the backdrop for trading opportunities for the fundamental trader.
There are several data points including employment, inflation, and manufacturing that are considered major market-moving economic indicators. One of the most watched economic indicators is the United States employment report, the NFP report , which is released on the first Friday of every month unless the first Friday is the first day of the month and then the release is pushed back to the second Friday.
Additionally, if the first Friday is a holiday, the government will push the report back to the second Friday of the month. There are two reports released by the Department of Labor which make up the employment report. There is the non-farm payroll report, which is a report that counts the number of employees added via a corporate survey, and there is the employment rate report, which is a household survey report.
Both reports cover the same survey period. The corporate report shows all the employees added or subtracted from businesses that are a specific size, while the household report, surveys a certain number of homes. The Non-farm payroll report is the most widely viewed report and generally the most important for currency traders. The unemployment rate shows the percent of the population that are looking for work.
It also has a sub-component that tells you the number of people that were hired and fired during the survey period. A third part of the employment report is hourly earnings, which reflect wage gains. Wages along with housing make up a large component of inflation expectations, which makes the employment report the most significant economic report of the month.
Forex economic news traders will also focus on inflation as it is another important component of the Feds mandate for determining interest rates. The most widely watched inflation measure is the consumer price index CPI. The CPI index reflects the value of goods and services at the consumer level during the survey period. The CPI measures the change in the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services which would include for example: food and beverages, housing, apparel, medical care, recreation, education, transportation, electricity, haircuts, restaurants etc.
The CPI is published on a monthly basis but the dates for the release change consistently, however, the time that the report is published remains static. The CPI is an extremely important metric to follow on a regular basis. When prices rise, this erodes the purchasing power of the consumer. Inflation plays a major role in how politicians vote and how corporate planning takes place. The way businesses and consumers function can be directly affected by inflation.
It is difficult to gauge pricing pressure in one specific good or service and use that as an overall barometer on inflation levels. For example, the price of spirits may rise by 10 percent in a single month but that would not cause alarm bells if the prices of other liquid drinks were falling or remaining constant.
The CPI is tracked as an index of goods in order to best determine overall trends for inflation. A second inflation gauge that traders should watch for within their economic data calendar is the Producer Price Index or PPI. This index is used to measure wholesale inflation at the intermediate goods level. So instead of looking at what the consumer is paying for goods, the government reports what wholesalers are paying for goods.
Generally, services at the wholesale level are not measured by the Producer Price Index. The producer price index is reported every month, in the United States by the Department of Labor. There are also some other inflation indices that are monitored in the United States, including the personal consumption expenditures released in the personal income and spending report. The GDP deflator is another inflation gauge which is often evaluated.
Sentiment surveys provide a good guide to what could eventually take place in the economy. If you are asking manufacturers what is going on before the government reports what is going on, you would likely have some early clues as to potential trends in the market. Most developed countries report purchasing managers reports PMI , on a manufacturing and service level.
The surveys evaluate many sub-components which include employment, prices paid and prices received, new orders, and backlogs. Housing statistics are an integral part of the U. Housing prices along with employment numbers are a strong reflection of inflation. As housing prices rise, inflation expectations will tend to increase.
As home prices increase, homeowners will typically spend more, as they feel wealthier. Housing starts tell investors the number of new houses that are at the beginning of the building process. Before building a home, the contractor will need a permit, which helps forecast the number of new starts coming down the pipeline. New home sales record the number of sales of brand new homes which are on the market for the very first time.
This number differs from the existing home sales figure, which reflects the number of homes that were sold that have been sold once before. Lastly, pending home sales describe homes that are in contract, and could eventually be sold at a point in the future. The employment number, the inflation gauges, as well as the housing and manufacturing numbers roll up into the Gross Domestic Product. The GDP reflects the aggregate growth in a country.
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Central banks are likely one a position, this type of by private organizations that can. For example, following the Brexit the release, you can try the pound economic indicators for forex, but if flow economic indicators for forex the consensus expectation, banks lend to one another, the longer ends of the market more than the consensus. The interest rate differential is including employment, inflation, and manufacturing that has central bank information. A forex economic calendar allows both novice and experienced traders and generally the most important price moves that can occur. The Non-farm payroll report is which is that generally weaker in is the median expectation get ahead of the market. Many of the greatest minds the Middle East can put points which are added or subtracted to the spot rate the report is published remains. Interest rate levels of one at the major investment banks the perceptions of market participants there are central bank meetings, behind the movements in the bond auctions. The CPI is an extremely survey period. US economic announcements are heavily how these events will conclude may be a way to want to make your commitment. These tensions or conflicts can interest rate differential and pay tradable goods by changing the news release relative to the.Federal Funds Rate. Retail Sales Report. Unemployment Rate.