rod stinson forex

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Rod stinson forex

The 1 thing people need to succeed is good marketing. And I have systems that can really help an average person succeed. We also have a team-exclusive landing page that totally rocks. In fact, I will give you some of my paid products — and ship them to you via real postal mail! I think Rod Stinson creates really effective systems.

I think he has some genuine value. But the Pizza Box Formula is an old product and there is not a lot of people marketing it any longer. If you are looking for a nice high ticket program, check out my new program, MHUB. However, I can no longer in good conscience promote the Pizza Box Formula.

The marketing system they use does not work. Click Here To Learn How. Andrew Murray is an online marketer with a knack for explaining complicated marketing strategies that the average person can understand and implement. My mission is to help the little guy or gal make a full-time income from home! Andrew i just joined Pizza in a Box… i wanted to know what form of advertising do you use?

Very clear systems. I have just a few questions and I will be very honest, I leave my job on the 11th of the month I have been looking for an opportuniy like this that works for a very long time. I am very excited about this program but would be risking everything by using my savings if I can not get some type of turn around fairly quickly.

I am a very hard worker and have dreamed of working from home for years. I am looking for some one honest to please let me know if what I have asked above is realistic, so please let me know or give me a call please let me know what I can really accomplish and how it can be done to meet that goal. I do not have another job after the 11th so if I invest this money I need to know I will have something by the 5th of April.

I ask a lot of questions and would really like a mentor to help me, I need and will listen to all the advise I am given, but I am risking everything to get these results. I would like to be a great success story!! The key is marketing. How well is the software working? Its hard for a newbie to compiete with professionals when it comes to marketing.

When I join, how soon do you feel I can start to see result with this software? It works well as long as you really understand the strategy behind how to use it effectively. The software actually levels the playing field. I would like to try and make a sale by mid-June and I know its possible to get a sale before that I just need a guidance.

Great actually. They just made it easier by the company accepting all payments. So they make you money! One thing is for certain. Are you interested in FamilyIQ? You must be logged in to post a comment. Can You Trust Rod Stinson? Rod Stinson. Andrew Murray. Sheryl on October 30, at pm.

Thanks, Sheryl Log in to Reply. Log in to Reply. Dena on March 6, at pm. In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small. How to use stop losses sensibly Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management.

No serious discretionary trader can operate without them. A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter. This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.

Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty. You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss.

Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right?

Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. If you trade using discretion, use stops. Picking a clear level Where you leave your stop loss is key. Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows.

This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up. Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Look at the downtrend on the chart.

There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend. So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level. There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section. Always pick your stop level first. So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position.

You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer. Hi guys. I believe I've found myself surrounded by great personalities here on this platform and I'm grateful I joined this social forum. We have really smart and interesting people here who stand to gain a lot from these financial markets.

The mistake I'd hate for us to make is not investing in something less volatile than the forex markets. We are lucky enough to make money while a lot of our dear friends who do are losing jobs left right and centre, and stand to lose their properties if another job doesn't come up. At first I wanted to have a lot of people to admire my social media with my possessions but I'm glad I was humbled by the market before I could make a fool out of myself.

Maybe bringing dignity to this industry is what we need to do. With that being said, a lot of banks are repossessing assets across the world right now. Once your monthly profit is good, you'd get really great deals right now on cars and throw them on Uber services. Houses that are repossessed below market value currently are pretty attractive, revamping and renting out or toss them on Airbnb for a couple of years before reselling wouldn't be a bad idea especially since the market will have been restored.

There's auctions all over the place and art, cars, houses, heavy duty caterpillar assets are so irresistible. Let's do this guys. Have an amazing, green and easy week full of pips and money. Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated.

If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic. Part II Letting stops breathe When to change a stop Entering and exiting winning positions Risk:reward ratios Risk-adjusted returns Letting stops breathe We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure. For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that.

If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it. There are also more analytical approaches. This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March.

Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch see above chart. Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised.

Remember - losers average losers. There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare. One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. Another is event risk. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour say up if you are long the stop loss ratchets with it.

This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops. One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons?

Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Wait it out. Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place? Entering and exiting winning positions Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. If it hits a previous high of 1.

The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter. Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. A classic mistake to avoid. The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding.

As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this. Entering positions with limit orders That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?

Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Imagine the price is 1. You might wish to leave a bid around 1. Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in. So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.

There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position. Scaling in is one such technique. You might therefore leave a series of five bids of , As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level.

Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market. Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders. Here we add , when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of , when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.

Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around. This is why risk management is so important! If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses.

You can see the effect of this below. That is, if you are prepared to risk pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you pips. Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit.

Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region. Risk-adjusted returns Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders.

Not bad! The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below. The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.

Would you rather have the first trading record or the second? If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps. A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.

This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms EAs that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return.

Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor. Sharpe ratio The Sharpe ratio works like this: It takes the average returns of your strategy; It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.

As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0. Above 1 is excellent. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in. It stands for Value at Risk. It might spit out a number of This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.

Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns.

Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter. Thank you all for the s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1, for this topic! Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below. Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.

Part III Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits Squeezes and other risks We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets. Events Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility.

The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments. This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases. You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week. For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading.

It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak. Squeezes Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity. The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever.

Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept which is also highly relevant in FX is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class. A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover.

Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.

If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point. To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble. Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.

The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. Shorts were burned hard. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely. This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section.

Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts. A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me: Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times. Asymmetric losses Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy. Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside.

What you want to avoid is the opposite. A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in Many people believed it could never go below 1. They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly.

Often they were highly leveraged at so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny pip rally. Then this happened. They stopped defending the price. Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care? You should definitely care. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. This is a great benchmark.

It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market. Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.

You can find the data online for free and download it directly here. It is extremely powerful. Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date.

For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information. As well as the absolute level is the speculative market net long or short you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning. For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase?

If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back? It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out? If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic. Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading.

If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Look at this chart. The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each. A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10, instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols.

Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. More realistic would be an average of trades on simultaneously. So what can be done? For example: You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.

You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities. You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade. You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue momentum and some that assume we will be range-bound carry.

And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return. The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk.

Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure? Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction. It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.

Flat is a position. Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it. Equally, you need to set monthly limits. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month. Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason.

Say you made a load of money in January. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period. Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak.

An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture. When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance. That's a wrap on risk management Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.

Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.

Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below. I have been trading for 3 months 6 months demo before that.

Up until 3 days ago I have always traded with discipline, set SL, understood risk management and make reports out of downloadable CSV data from the broker. I even journal each trade at the end of the day. Each trade I make risks from 0. Several days ago, I lost 3 trades in a row and felt like George Costanza.

It was especially demoralizing because I followed the technical, fundamental, trend, and confirmed with indicator, etc I took the day off and reflected on what I did wrong. The very second the trade was entered, I felt a hot flash and my heart started pumping, I entered into loss territory, my heart sunk as I watch it go down 10 pips, 15 pips, if only for 15 seconds. Then it started going up, and it was exhilarating watching the profits.

I had the good sense to enter TP at 1. I told my self that this was a one time thing, stupid and impulsive thing to do Just that vertical cliff short candle This has been a good week to say the least. But I am afraid I have created an insatiable monster.

The greed has overtaken good sense, and this is quite possibly the origin story of a blown account. Just a quick story on my biggest gain in one week, which I'll more than likely never do again because my risk tolerance is not as high anymore. But before: I highly discourage anyone especially the newbies on here to risk as much or trade in the following manner.

So of course I thought I was a god. I saw some better trades coming up and decided it was time to get back in the market with some real money. So it was time. I got into trades Sunday night May 31 as soon as the market opened and they were already doing well the next morning. I'm okay with not gaining quickly, now I'm just about protecting my capital. What I learnt: I did take some good trades so there's not much I could've learnt, the weeks after though did teach me: Not to risk that much on trades Go for slow and steady gains Stay out of the market as much as possible.

Hi all. I am in a very difficult psychologically situation. I have studied for 7 years to be a day trader. Stare at the charts all day, actively manage, bla bla bla. So here is my struggle. Off the bat, my goal is to one day be a full time forex trader with no other source of income Recently I started reading off levels. I go in for 10m per day while on the crapper in the morning set up alerts on my phone, and then just enter blindly for 1.

I get about setups per day. That is option 1. Option 1 downside is eventually I get a short like gbpusd this Monday, where I got in for 4 pip stop and could have trailed it for 15RR! Option 2 is active trading. Sitting at the desk, charting out, following news events, the works. Taking positions, trailing stops to lock profits, the stress that goes with it.

I should be happy with option 1 but it keeps feeling wrong. As if I am cheating. It cannot be this easy, can it? Furthermore, if I go full time to only trade 10 mins per say and make R almost every day, what will I do the rest of the time? I am one of those guys raised with the "you have to work hard around the clock" mentality, and I know that does not apply to Forex and trading at all.

Nevertheless, 10m per day just feels and sounds weird, and I can't shake the feeling I will get a slap in the face for it. But I backtested. I forward tested. I have been trading it in a micro account for 2 months and it checks out.

Reddit, what is your opinion. Option 1 laid back, or go back to the grinder and do option 2 Edit : correcting typo View Poll submitted by crypthon to Forex [link] [comments]. Real quick before I get into my next steps of my FX Journey, id like to say thank you to all the people who commented on my last post!

All of the tips I got were really eye-opening and introduced me to different parts of FX trading that I didn't even know existed.

TAN ORGANIC SEEDRS INVESTMENT

Rod Stinson is a veteran of the home business industry. I have direct contact with Rod Stinson and have his personal phone number and email address, which I will not give out, because he has asked me not to. However, I can contact him directly and he gets back to me promptly. I like Rod. First off, one of the things I really like about Rod Stinson is that he really has developed into a systems-driven marketer.

He actually comes from a machinist background, and when he develops marketing systems, they are organized, are optimized to convert, and highly effective. And while I really dislike replicated marketing systems, this one was really effective. Why do I say this? It actually contains a lot of advanced marketing psychology — which is why it makes such an emotional impact on everyone I send to the webinar.

But the Pizza Box Formula is not something I can endorse any longer. I recorded this late at night while everyone was sleeping, so excuse my lack of excitement LOL:. Rod Stinson recently came out with a training program. There are 2 things I dislike about it. And 2 Rod tends to teach more scattergun approaches to marketing like bulk email, bulk voice broadcasting and other methods where you piss a lot of people off.

He has also developed his own stock trading course, and he claims that stock trading is a more effective residual income stream than network marketing — and I have to agree with him on that point also. The Pizza Box Formula teaches massive voice broadcasting. And most people are not. Learn marketing. I have a great webinar that teaches you HOW to effectively market any business online.

How can I help you? The 1 thing people need to succeed is good marketing. And I have systems that can really help an average person succeed. We also have a team-exclusive landing page that totally rocks. In fact, I will give you some of my paid products — and ship them to you via real postal mail!

I think Rod Stinson creates really effective systems. I think he has some genuine value. But the Pizza Box Formula is an old product and there is not a lot of people marketing it any longer. If you are looking for a nice high ticket program, check out my new program, MHUB. However, I can no longer in good conscience promote the Pizza Box Formula. The marketing system they use does not work. Click Here To Learn How.

Andrew Murray is an online marketer with a knack for explaining complicated marketing strategies that the average person can understand and implement. My mission is to help the little guy or gal make a full-time income from home! Andrew i just joined Pizza in a Box… i wanted to know what form of advertising do you use? Very clear systems. I have just a few questions and I will be very honest, I leave my job on the 11th of the month I have been looking for an opportuniy like this that works for a very long time.

I am very excited about this program but would be risking everything by using my savings if I can not get some type of turn around fairly quickly. I am a very hard worker and have dreamed of working from home for years. I am looking for some one honest to please let me know if what I have asked above is realistic, so please let me know or give me a call please let me know what I can really accomplish and how it can be done to meet that goal.

I do not have another job after the 11th so if I invest this money I need to know I will have something by the 5th of April. I ask a lot of questions and would really like a mentor to help me, I need and will listen to all the advise I am given, but I am risking everything to get these results.

I would like to be a great success story!! What Is Forex? Learn about this massively huge financial market where fiat currencies are traded. What Is Traded In Forex? Currencies are the name of the game. Yes, you can buy and sell currencies against each other as a short-term trade, long-term investment, or something in-between. And that comes with a lot of benefits for currency traders!

The Different Ways To Trade Forex Some of the more popular ways that traders participate in the forex market is through the spot market, futures, options, and exchange-traded funds. Why Trade Forex? Want to know some reasons why traders love the forex market? Read on to find out what makes it so attractive! Why Trade Forex: Advantages Of Forex Trading Low transaction costs and high liquidity are just a couple of the advantages of the forex market. Why Trade Forex: Forex vs.

Stocks Nobody likes bullies! Good thing for us, unlike the stock market, there is no one financial institute large enough to corner the forex market! Thirty billion? Who Trades Forex? From money exchangers, to banks, to hedge fund managers, to local Joes like your Uncle Pete — everybody participates in the forex market! Forex Market Structure Because there is no centralized market, tight competition between banks normally leads to having the best prices! Boo yeah! Forex Market Players The forex market is basically comprised of four different groups.

Know Your Forex History! Time to brush up on your history! When Can You Trade Forex? See how the forex market is broken up into four major trading sessions and which ones provides the most opportunities. The Tokyo session is sometimes referred to as the Asian session, which is also the session where we start fresh every day! The concrete jungle where forex dreams are made of! Just like Asia and Europe, the U. Which times of day provide the most dynamic market action and volumes?

Read on to find out the best and worst times to trade. How Do You Trade Forex? Simple, right!? First, what drives the value of a currency? What is a Pip in Forex? What is a Lot in Forex? How many units of currency can we trade? What size positions can we trade and what are they called? Here are some forex terms to help you wow that special someone!

Trade on demo first to get a lot of the rookie mistakes out of the way before risking live capital. There are no take-backs in the real market. Or at least know your Chart Patterns Support and Resistance v. Hi guys, I have been using reddit for years in my personal life not trading! I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf.

When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be topics in total so about posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions. The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts Part I Why it matters Position sizing Kelly Using stops sensibly Picking a clear level Why it matters The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money.

Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around. The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices. Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.

Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market. We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. So what should our position size be? We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

You should be using this calculator or something similar on every single trade so that you know your risk. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.

So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you. Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you. Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales.

That makes sense as your capital has grown. It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only losing trades because they are leveraged at and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance. Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself. Why not 0. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.

This is harder than it sounds. Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. You could easily be out after the first two flips. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.

Hold on a second. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not. Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four.

This gives 6. The model will soon die. What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small. How to use stop losses sensibly Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management.

No serious discretionary trader can operate without them. A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter. This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK. Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.

You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower.

If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. If you trade using discretion, use stops. Picking a clear level Where you leave your stop loss is key. Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.

Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend. So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.

There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section. Always pick your stop level first.

So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out.

For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position.

You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer. Hi guys. I believe I've found myself surrounded by great personalities here on this platform and I'm grateful I joined this social forum.

We have really smart and interesting people here who stand to gain a lot from these financial markets. The mistake I'd hate for us to make is not investing in something less volatile than the forex markets. We are lucky enough to make money while a lot of our dear friends who do are losing jobs left right and centre, and stand to lose their properties if another job doesn't come up. At first I wanted to have a lot of people to admire my social media with my possessions but I'm glad I was humbled by the market before I could make a fool out of myself.

Maybe bringing dignity to this industry is what we need to do. With that being said, a lot of banks are repossessing assets across the world right now. Once your monthly profit is good, you'd get really great deals right now on cars and throw them on Uber services.

Houses that are repossessed below market value currently are pretty attractive, revamping and renting out or toss them on Airbnb for a couple of years before reselling wouldn't be a bad idea especially since the market will have been restored. There's auctions all over the place and art, cars, houses, heavy duty caterpillar assets are so irresistible. Let's do this guys. Have an amazing, green and easy week full of pips and money. Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback.

Genuinely really appreciated. If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic. Part II Letting stops breathe When to change a stop Entering and exiting winning positions Risk:reward ratios Risk-adjusted returns Letting stops breathe We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.

It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.

For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that.

If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it. There are also more analytical approaches.

This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch see above chart. Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. Remember - losers average losers. There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare. One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. Another is event risk. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.

We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour say up if you are long the stop loss ratchets with it. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour.

Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops. One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Wait it out.

Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place? Entering and exiting winning positions Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. If it hits a previous high of 1. The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early.

One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter. Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. A classic mistake to avoid. The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding.

As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this. Entering positions with limit orders That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one? Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position.

Imagine the price is 1. You might wish to leave a bid around 1. Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.

So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1. There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position. Scaling in is one such technique. You might therefore leave a series of five bids of , As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level.

Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market. Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders. Here we add , when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of , when the trade moves in our favour.

We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct. Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around. This is why risk management is so important! If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses.

You can see the effect of this below. That is, if you are prepared to risk pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you pips. Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Not bad! The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below. The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.

Would you rather have the first trading record or the second? If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps. A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance.

One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return. This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms EAs that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner.

At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor. Sharpe ratio The Sharpe ratio works like this: It takes the average returns of your strategy; It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.

Above 1 is excellent. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in. It stands for Value at Risk. It might spit out a number of This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions.

Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.

Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter. Thank you all for the s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1, for this topic! Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below. Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.

Part III Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits Squeezes and other risks We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets. Events Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility.

The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments. This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.

You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week. For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading.

It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak. Squeezes Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.

The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept which is also highly relevant in FX is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class. A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price. If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point. To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock.

These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble. Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it. The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. Shorts were burned hard. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.

This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts. A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me: Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain.

That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times. Asymmetric losses Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy. Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite. A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in Many people believed it could never go below 1.

They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny pip rally. Then this happened. They stopped defending the price.

Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line. Market positioning We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care? You should definitely care. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.

Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market. Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.

You can find the data online for free and download it directly here. It is extremely powerful. Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.

As well as the absolute level is the speculative market net long or short you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning. For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back? It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out? If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets.

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