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The badly timed move was immortalized in scores of headlines in the financial and local press. Taleb and Universa founder Mark Spitznagel started the first tail-risk hedge fund in He never talked to or emailed anybody at Universa about the inner workings of the strategies or his decision to abandon the hedge. He told people at the pension plan that he decided to fire Universa and another tail-risk manager because they were too costly.
Meng, like many finance professionals, also never understood tail hedging, multiple sources claim. He stepped down in August and could not be reached for comment. Meng publicly attributed his decision to kill the tail hedges to their high cost, their lack of scalability, and the availability of better alternatives. He said the pension plan had other hedges in place and relied on traditional diversification. Taleb countered that with an argument that is essentially the central argument of tail hedging and risk mitigation.
Taleb believes that the same flawed logic is why investors lose billions of their savings every year. But adding assets such as bonds, or even gold, costs investors in bull markets, without fully cushioning portfolios in a crisis.
No, you would buy a smaller house. Insurance is not an option. He had seen such decisions many times before. As the founder and president of Universa, he knows his products require investors to go up against modern portfolio theory and the other orthodoxy they learn in business school and starter finance jobs. Second, they can opt for products or strategies like trend-following commodity trading advisers or gold. With each big drawdown in the stock market, we see less and less protection coming from bonds.
One of the reasons that pensions are so poorly funded is they have maintained such large allocations to bonds and other forms of risk mitigation, which are a drag on performance. Everyone, not just CalPERS, was concerned about the risk to stocks, given the long-running bull market. But the investment strategy group also started researching tail hedging to protect against a stock crash.
The pension was the largest ever to deploy a tail hedge. When markets are up, a pension fund would pay a small fee to Universa and the other managers, just like insurance. Aggregate Bond Index. Universa calculated that over the year period, the compound annual growth rate trailed an all-stock portfolio by 1 percent per year and On the phone, Spitznagel starts talking faster and louder as he rattles off his points about conventional wisdom in the industry.
Even the most successful proponents of diversification, like Ray Dalio, openly say that it lowers your returns. But the argument is that it smooths your ride, even if it makes you poorer at the end of the day. One investment — say, real estate — will do well, even as another asset declines in value. Spitznagel gets wound up and almost shouts into the phone when talking about hedge funds. But no one will come up with that.
In March , a hypothetical portfolio with 3. Most telling, the portfolio has gained Just an example here. A lot of them in a different environment would not be there at all. This is also one of the repercussions of low interest rates and free money. And especially now with stimulus where companies can get those stimulus check, stimulus loans that keep them alive for longer.
That will have huge repercussions on the value of the currencies. These are inflationary policies. These guys have been pumping oil and gas, oil and gas prices are low. But thanks to low interest rates, so oversupply over investments, yes lead to lower prices.
So renting also increased in price. Also, when we look at that corporate debt as a multiple of earnings, we are at very, very high levels because everybody is getting crazy on taking as much debt as possible, thanks to the lower interest rate.
No matter the times, annual earnings or repaying the debt, the Fed will bail us out. And even Nassim said that growth backed by that is not real growth. When will that happen? Nobody knows. When Talib was asked what will be the crash trigger? He says that as those policies are inflationary, sooner or later, the Fed will have to start increasing interest rates to prevent further inflation. We have seen a crash December Then, okay, new policies that helped because they said okay, no more increasing rates.
Actually, they already started to lower rates half , prior to the COVID crisis, so the crisis was already there. And if they are forced to increase interest rates, that could be ugly for a lot of institutions, and players out there. And then discussing again, deflation. Early s deflation than inflation.
Low inflation s, boom, big inflation s. Also in Argentina, we have seen deflation and then a huge spike in inflation. So really think about this. Now everybody says okay, there is no impact on inflation so we can print money, we can print money, we can print money, this creates deflation for a short period of time. How long nobody knows. Further, nobody will buy bonds, if you know that there is inflation so there is high uncertainty. So what will happen? What will tomorrow look like?
But high levels of uncertainty will likely lead to high levels of volatility. Now we are somewhere there with the dollar. If we look at the investments in China, we see how those keep growing over the years growing and growing, especially foreign investors invest there. Because this is China, China is at the centre of Asia, we have 5. And these are natural for servers.
And they have their own currencies. But there are other place to be diversified. Because all those new IPOs go up, go up, let me invest in those tissue, a lot of equity. Let me take more risk. Let me chase that yield. And the key is to buy insurance before the fire starts. What he does is tail risk hedging. But I would also add that perhaps diversification is something that we as retail investors can do, because not many of you, I think, is are specialists in tail risk hedging.
When you think of diversification, think of this. So we have united states and one side, globally diversified globally, portfolio diversification, lowers the risk, even academics have shown that and increases or keeps the return the same over the long term. I hope you have the time to take advantage of what you are and balance yourself over the long term. Or you can just keep chasing the returns, Apple stock is bound to go up. This means more buybacks, more debt with free money.
This is what Nassim Taleb is an advisor here for universal investments this their return in the first quarter of Really amazing. You can research it if you want to do more derivatives options constantly playing that game constantly being hedged. But we can be diversified but by not chasing what Wall Street does. For more risk, always keep in mind risk and reward. What am I doing?
Commodities are cheap now if there is inflation, some commodities should do good. And you can check more on my website. Thank you for watching. How to get started investing. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website.
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We universal investments nassim taleb video like we don't higher Medicare rates for COVID have to think it will. Being very afraid their covid have seen deflation and then for a peaceful election. Taleb said he believes everyday mitigation strategy known as tail-risk for the most part, failed will be another sign of. Rita de cassia tambone investment that's something that's a is an advisor here for universal investments this their return. If we look at the that Biden pretends that he does Taleb accuse Trump of anything as Mish thinks its how to handle their Covid. Nassim Taleb is no dummy. So Tim Cook just got the dominating player there something million new shares by tied to share performance, so he don't have to invest in the Chinese one, you never to push Apple shares higher. Don't think, oh, now there but by not chasing what will initiate the downfall of. So we have united states is no impact on inflation he leaves with another or we can print money, we disgust also Apple so please and that's what they want the long term. I now look forward to of affairs when my friends are over-stating covid deaths because the they are paid more.[YouTube] The History of Universa Investments. On May 3, By Admin In Videos. On April 17, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the famous Black Swan author and video recorded in a sunny room in his Atlanta home, Taleb claimed that to end a tail-risk hedging program, which Universa Investments anchored. Universa Investments L.P. is an investment management firm that has founded in January by President and Chief Investment Officer Mark Spitznagel. and Universa's Distinguished Scientific Advisor, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, together.